085
FXUS65 KBOU 160939
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
339 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gorgeous weather conditions today.

- Much warmer and drier Friday and through this weekend, with
  spottier precipitation chances confined to the high country.

- Breezier Sunday into Monday with localized fire weather concerns
  possible depending on fuel conditions.

- Cooler and potentially more unsettled Monday/Tuesday with
  increasing precipitation changes region-wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through tonight/...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Water vapor imagery shows dry air pushing into our forecast area
from the northwest. This has led to the end of the rain showers in
our area and clouds are slowly dissipating. Ridging will continue
to move over Colorado today with subsident flow. It will turn into
an absolutely gorgeous day today. There will be mostly sunny
skies, light winds, and seasonal temperatures. Highs across the
plains will be in the 70s. A stray shower or weak storm cannot be
ruled out over Park County and the southern foothills. There are
no weather concerns today.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
Issued at 330 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Strong warm advection will push 700mb temperatures to near 11-12C
on Friday as we transition to largely zonal flow aloft. In
combination with limited daytime cloud cover and subsident flow
off the Front Range, it`s no surprise temperatures will continue
their rapid rise, and highs will top out well into the 80`s for
all of the lower elevations. The mountains won`t be immune to the
warming either, with 60`s or even some 70`s for many higher
elevation communities, well above normal for the date. The area
will stay dry with mostly scattered mid-level clouds across the
high country.

A speedy shortwave trough will march across the northern plains
states Saturday, but it looks to remain far enough north to limit
its impact on our region. We`ll see some locally breezy conditions
in the high country, some slight moderation of temperatures behind
a weak cool front (though they`ll remain above average), and a
minor uptick in shower chances in the afternoon, more notably for
the higher terrain.

By Sunday, a broad and positively-tilted trough will start to
experience some amplification to our west, with strengthening
southwesterly flow aloft as the polar and subtropical jets begin
to merge over the Four Corners. 700mb temperatures will hold
steady or increase slightly, and under subsident flow, high
temperatures are favored to once again rise well into the 80`s
across the plains and urban corridor. Under a well-mixed
environment, winds aloft will mix down to the surface more
efficiently, so breezy conditions will be more widespread across
our forecast area, extending from the high country into the
plains. This could translate into elevated fire weather conditions
for some areas, but for most locations the significant green-up
experienced during the past couple of weeks will serve to buffer
the fire danger. Depending on the speed of the approaching trough,
these breezy and dry conditions may fold over into Monday as well.
Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms may still surface for
some of the higher elevations Sunday, but most of the area looks
to remain dry.

The pattern is then slated to turn a little more unsettled and
also knock our temperatures back closer to or below seasonal
normals MOnday into Tuesday, as the trough pushes east across
Colorado. Precipitation chances will nudge upward for all areas
Monday, (although are not a guarantee given the somewhat
progressive nature of the trough), and may extend into Tuesday
depending on exact timing of the system. A zonal or weak ridging
pattern looks to resume thereafter with drying/warming favored,
but those details are highly fuzzy this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday/...
Issued at 1148 PM MDT Wed May 15 2024

There are a few very light showers around the Denver metro tonight
that are dissipating. These showers will end in an hour or two and
the clouds will break up. The rest of the TAF period will have
very light winds and VFR conditions. The usual diurnal wind
pattern will exist with northeast winds this afternoon followed by
southeast winds in the evening and southwest drainage overnight.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Danielson
LONG TERM...Rodriguez
AVIATION...Danielson