031
FXUS61 KCAR 041600
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
1200 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area today and tonight. An
occluded front will approach on Sunday and cross the area Sunday
night. High pressure will return Monday into Tuesday. Low
pressure will approach on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1200PM Update...Satellite images show less cloud cover than
previously forecast. In addition, due to the increased sunshine,
temps have increased more than previously forecast. Adjusted
both parameters to show this. Otherwise, the rest of the
forecast looks good.

Previous discussion...
We will remain in a narrow corridor of high pressure, both
surface and aloft today, between a low well to our southeast and
an occluded front approaching from the west. An initial band of
moisture pushing out ahead of the front will slide into our
region during the day today. However, moisture from this band
will thin out as it pushes over the ridge and collapses under
subsidence from the ridging. The effect for our weather will be
clouds moving in today, then thinning for breaks of sunshine
later this afternoon as upper level moisture dissipates.

High pressure surface and aloft will be over the area tonight
bringing a partly cloudy night. Some patchy low stratus may form
again late tonight with some isolated areas of fog possible over
the central or southern valleys. Otherwise, tonight will be dry
and tranquil.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models are in pretty good agreement for this ptn of the fcst.
Sun will begin ptly sunny, then become cldy and breezy in the
Aftn as a s/wv an weakening warm occluded frontal zone begins to
apch from the W. Shwrs and rn from this system will msly occur
ovr the Rgn durg Sun Ngt with most areas receiving 0.10 to 0.20
inches, warranting max PoPs in the ovrngt hrs now in the
categorical range.

Most rn/shwr activity ovr our FA will move E of the FA by late
Mon Morn. The tmg of a of a fairly strong secondary cold front
and associated s/wv from Hudson Bay now appears to be after 00z
Tue, likely to late for after diurnal max htg for any sig
additional shwrs and isold tstms. The warmest air in the llvls
will arrive durg by Mon Aftn allowing temps to get well into the
60s, perhaps even near 70 ovr inland low trrn lctns.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Any isold to wdly sct shwrs will move E of the FA behind a
secondary cold front by late Mon Eve, with the rest of Mon Ngt
and Tue looking to be fair, breezy and cooler, with some llvl
cold advcn SC cld cvr likely ovr Nrn/Ern areas late Tue Morn
into Aftn. Under Can sfc high pres, Tue Ngt looks to be fair
with dmnshg winds and cool spcly Nrn areas with good radiational
cooling.

Wed will start ptly cldy ovr the Rgn, then turn msly cldy from
the W as another weakening occluded sfc low and s/wv alf system
apchs from the Midwest. Shwrs from this system are potentially
could impact our FA Wed Ngt, but longer range models are not in
good agreement on tmg or rnfl totals durg this tm frame, and on
whether followup s/wvs will cont to bring additional shwrs from
Thu Aftn thru Fri. The result is a long mention of chc shwrs
into the late week with low confidence as to what day/ngt pd
will actually receive appreciable rnfl. Subsequently max PoPs
were kept in the high chc range. Longer range models are in a
little more agreement on possible more sig rnfl toward the
weekend, currently just beyond this fcst domain. Temps will be
msly near to slightly abv normal for Wed thru Fri.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR ceilings this morning should improve to VFR by
midday. VFR conditions are expected tonight, possibly lowering
to MVFR again late tonight. Winds light east to northeast today
becoming light southeast tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: Sun...all TAF sites VFR with mdt S winds.

Sun Ngt...all TAF sites low MVFR of IFR clgs with Shwrs and rn.
Mdt S winds.

Mon...all TAF sites MVFR clgs becmg low VFR clgs by Aftn. Brief
MVFR vsbys possible in shwrs. Lgt to mdt SW winds becmg W late
in the day.

Mon Ngt - Tue...all TAF sites VFR - low VFR clgs. Lgt to mdt NW
winds.

Tue Ngt - Wed...all TAF sites VFR, lowering low VFR clgs by late
Wed Aftn with lgt shwrs. Lgt winds.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will be light today. Seas will be around 1 to 2
ft today, dropping to around 1 ft tonight.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: No hdlns anticipated at this tm ovr these
ptns of the fcst. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for
fcst wv hts with wvs msly composed of two spectral groups; a
shorter 4 to 6 sec and a longer 10 to 12 sec pd swell.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer/LaFlash
Short Term...VJN
Long Term...VJN
Aviation...Bloomer/LaFlash/VJN
Marine...Bloomer/LaFlash/VJN