257
FXUS62 KCHS 032320
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
720 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Atlantic high pressure will remain across the Southeast U.S.
through much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Early this evening: Radar imagery shows that the sea breeze has
just about cleared the forecast area and only weak convection
has developed along the periphery of the forecast area over the
last few hours. Through the overnight, the upper ridge axis will
slip offshore and begin to get replaced by broad troughing.
Model guidance favors far interior southeast Georgia for
overnight convection, mainly Tattnall, Evans, Candler, Bulloch,
Screven, and Jenkins counties. This make sense as this area will
feel the trough aloft a bit more, and deeper moisture (~1.5"
precipitable water values) will be present there. We don`t
anticipate the coverage will be too high, mainly in the
isolated to scattered range. Conditions will not be nearly as
conducive for fog development tonight, though some patchy fog
will be possible across the inland tier. Lows will be mild,
with mid to upper 60s across the forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ridging aloft will be in place just off the southeastern
coastline, while across the southeastern states a series of
shortwave troughs ripple through. At the surface high pressure
will extend into the region from the east. Between the shortwave
energy aloft and the afternoon sea breeze isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon. While a
strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, the overall severe
threat will be low. Shear values are not impressive and there
appears to be model disagreements on how much instability will
be in place.

High temperatures will follow a slight warming trend through
the weekend and into early next week. upper 70s to low 80s are
forecast Saturday, with mid to upper 80s by Monday. Overnight
low temperatures will remain quite mild and well above normal,
generally in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The highlight of the long term period will be the heat, as high
pressure builds at the surface and ridging builds aloft. A lack
of any forcing aloft will limit any shower/thunderstorm
activity. Temperatures are expected to rise into the low to mid
90s by Thursday. While heat indices will likely remain below
advisory levels, temperatures could approach record levels on
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV
through 00z Sunday. There are no significant fog or stratus
concerns at the terminals overnight, though some guidance would
suggest that low ceilings could spread into KCHS right around
sunrise. Given the amount of mid and high level clouds around
tonight, we don`t think this low stratus is too likely, so we
have only carried a few clouds at around 500 ft. Saturday
shower and thunderstorm activity should mostly stay to the west
of the terminals.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: There are no concerns for tonight. Southeast winds
will average 5-10 kt with seas 1-2 ft.

Saturday through Wednesday: High pressure will prevail across
the local marine waters through the period, yielding rather
benign conditions. Southerly winds in the morning will back out
of the southeast during the afternoon and evening hours nearly
each day as the sea breeze develops. Winds will average 10-15 kt
with seas 2-3 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...