579
FXUS64 KCRP 202004
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
304 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Key Messages:

 Moderate to High heat risk of 110-114 degrees or greater expected
Tuesday for South Texas

The forecast is remaining on track from the previous issuance.
Unfortunately, the area will remain under this "heat dome" through
the remainder of the short term. Highs are expected to be in the
lower 90s to lower 100s out west Tuesday. Models indicate that the
850mb temp is expected to be slightly above our the 99th percentile
for this time of year (~25 degrees C). This along with steady mid to
upper 70s dew points will yield heat indices in the Coastal Bend
and Brush Country to be around 110-114 degrees. With the
possibility for some isolated areas to see heat indices reach
115+ degrees, an Excessive Heat Warning is not completely out of
the question. Heat is expected to continue building as we move
through this week. Make sure to stay hydrated through this
tomorrow through the rest of the week with heat stress conditions
expected.



&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Key Messages:

- Major to extreme heat-related impacts can be expected through the
the work week and into the weekend.

High pressure aloft will remain in control this week and into the
weekend, keeping hot and humid conditions in place across S TX.
Latest models indicate by Wednesday, the extreme heat-related
impacts will occur mainly across the western half of S TX with the
Coastal Bend in a major heat risk and the Victoria area in a
moderate heat risk. However, the extreme conditions spread north and
east through the week and reach the inland Coastal Bend this
weekend, with a major risk across the eastern Coastal Bend along the
coast and Victoria Crossroads.

With major to extreme heat-related impacts, Heat Advisories will
likely be issued each day, with Excessive Heat Warnings possible by
the end of the week.

As for temperatures, they are well above normal for this time of the
year. Highs ranging from low 90s along the coast to around 105 along
the Rio Grande is expected by Wednesday. A steady increase each day
will lead to highs in the mid 90s along the coast, and approaching
110 along the Rio Grande Plains by the weekend. With humid
conditions also in place, the Heat Index values will generally range
from 110-115 through Thursday to 110-120 by the weekend.  The
probability of the heat index exceeding 110 degrees across western
CWA is 70% or greater. The probability of exceeding 115
degrees increases to 40-70% by the end of the week.

As for rain chances, little to no rain (<10%) is expected across
much of S TX through the week, due to the upper ridge and dry
conditions aloft. That being said, the models do indicate the high
pressure will shift slightly east-southeast Wednesday and Thursday
with a series of short waves tracking northeast across mainly the
Hill Country, but could skirt the northwestern tier of the CWA.
Thus, can not rule out a thunderstorm or two across the Cotulla area
Wed-Thu time frame.

Hazy conditions will likely continue through the period due to fires
well south of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR ceilings will prevail until this evening as low clouds will
again push in from the Gulf. This will create MVFR ceilings across
the eastern sites (ALI,CRP,VCT) around 00-03Z and around 06-07z
for the western sites. A gradient will develop over the western
sites and create slightly gusty winds overnight over LRD and COT.
These winds could creep into site ALI for a couple of hours as
well. Otherwise, MVFR conditions should transition to VFR tomorrow
around 15-18Z across all sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Weak to moderate east to southeasterly flow is expected through
Tuesday. Moderate onshore flow will develop during the day Tuesday
creating Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions over the Gulf
Waters. A generally moderate onshore flow will persist through
the end of the week, with periods of strong onshore flow Wednesday
and Thursday afternoons across the southern bays and nearshore
waters south of Port Aransas. Hazy conditions will linger at times
through the week as fires continue to burn to our south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    79  93  79  93 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          77  93  77  91 /   0  10   0   0
Laredo            79 104  79 104 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             77  97  78  97 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          79  89  79  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           79 102  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        78  94  78  94 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       81  90  81  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NP/92
LONG TERM....TE/81
AVIATION...NP