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000
FNUS71 KCTP 241540
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Hominy Ridge Rx Fire...Landowner
National Weather Service State College PA
1140 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 EDT on April 25.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...
Scattered rain showers are expected to continue through this
afternoon with an isolated/gusty thunderstorm possible. Showers will
diminish by tonight with rain-free conditions Thursday and
Friday.

Low humidity (<30% minRH) is expected in most areas on Thursday
afternoon with a potential minRH floor around 10-15% based on the
low end of the model forecast range. The wind will be light under
the influence of a seasonably strong high pressure system
dropping southward from northern Manitoba Canada. RH values will
drop near or below 30% on Friday once again with winds
occasionally gusting to 20mph. Milder temperatures and increasing
moisture will preclude fire weather concerns this weekend.


.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 35.
Max Humidity........64 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 7 mph.
Mixing Height.......800 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....North 10 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................7 to 11.

TIME (EDT)          MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%)...........  29     20     19
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......  NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1      1      1
Temp..............  44     39     36
RH................  62     59     61
20 ft wind........  N 7    N 6    N 5
20 FT Wind Gust...  12     10     10
Mix Hgt (ft)....  2000   1500   1300
Transport wind....  N 16   N 15   N 14
LVORI.............  2      3      3
ADI...............  11     11     7
Haines Index......  3      3      3

.THURSDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 58.
Min Humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming northeast around 5 mph
                    early in the morning, then becoming light late
                    in the morning becoming northeast around 5 mph
                    late in the morning becoming light becoming
                    east around 5 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................18 to 21.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  20  20  14  14  13  13  13  13  13  13  13  13
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  35  35  38  41  44  47  50  53  56  57  57  58
RH................  59  56  52  46  39  35  29  26  22  22  22  23
20 FT Wind Dir....  N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E   E
20 FT Wind Spd....  4   4   5   4   5   5   5   4   4   4   5   5
20 FT Wind Gust...  7   6   8   6   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.8 0.9 1.8 2.3 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.5
Transp Wind Dir...  N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N
Transp Wind Spd...  9   9   12  10  8   7   7   6   6   6   6   6
LVORI.............  2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
ADI...............  21  21  21  21  21  21  19  19  19  18  18  18
Haines Index......  3   3   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 37.
Max Humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing Height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 3 to 5 mph shifting to the east in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................2.

TIME (EDT)          6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%)...........  12     12     9      6      5      7
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......  NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp..............  56     53     48     43     40     39
RH................  27     38     47     60     70     73
20 ft wind........  E 5    E 3    E 2    E 1    N 0    N 0
20 FT Wind Gust...  6      4             2
Mix Hgt (ft)....  4800   400    400    400    400    400
Transport wind....  NE 5   NE 3   E 3    E 3    NE 5   E 5
LVORI.............  2      2      2      3      3      3
ADI...............  2      2      2      2      2      2
Haines Index......  5      5      5      5      5      5

.FRIDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 61.
Min Humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing Height.......6000 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....East 5 to 8 mph shifting to the south 10 to 13
                    mph late in the morning.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................4 to 42.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  9   11  11  13  15  16  19  21  23  26  29  31
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  39  40  41  45  49  53  55  57  59  60  60  61
RH................  76  73  73  62  54  46  43  38  36  35  35  33
20 FT Wind Dir....  E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S
20 FT Wind Spd....  1   1   2   4   5   6   7   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT Wind Gust...  2   2       6   7   10  10  11  11  11  11  11
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.5 0.6 0.8 2.0 3.2 4.4 4.9 5.4 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0
Transp Wind Dir...  E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp Wind Spd...  5   5   5   7   8   10  10  12  12  12  13  13
LVORI.............  4   3   3   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI...............  4   4   4   30  30  30  38  38  38  42  42  42
Haines Index......  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5

$$
Forecaster...Banghoff
Requested by...Benjamin Jones
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412295.0/CTP
.DELDT 04/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL benj@ruffedgrousesociety.org