986
FXUS63 KDLH 011453
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
953 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain showers and drizzle ending from south to north late this
  morning and into the early afternoon.

- Another series of rainy systems are expected Thursday into
  Friday and again Friday night into Saturday.

- Temperatures gradually warm up through this weekend into early
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 440 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are moving across the
area this morning, driven by a potent shortwave that is sliding
northeast across the area this morning. This wave has brought a
broad area of much needed rainfall, with most locations so far
reporting between a quarter and a half inch of rainfall, though
there are a few higher reports where we had some thunder which
produced locally heavier rainfall amounts with values
approaching three quarters of an inch. This system to continue
pushing northeast today, with the southwestern edge of the
precipitation currently approximately along Hwy 2, which should
push across the US/Canada border about mid-late morning. There
has been a lot of stratus on the southwest flank of this system,
so while the rainfall will end, many areas may not get any
sunshine until late in the afternoon. Temperatures will be
warmest for areas that get sunshine the longest, with low 60s
across our south, but only around 50 for the tip of the
Arrowhead.

We have a brief break in precipitation this afternoon and
evening, only for another wave of precipitation to move across
the area late tonight and Thursday, this time driven by an
inverted surface trough and another strong shortwave. This
should bring us another quarter to three quarters of an inch of
rainfall, with the greatest amounts over northwest Wisconsin,
where we get enough instability for some convective elements and
rumbles of thunder. Thursday to be another chilly blustery day
with highs down in the mid 40s to mid 50s. We will have wrap-
around shower activity on Friday, but this will be in the cold
air advection, steep low level lapse rates section of this
particular system, and do not expect anything very robust out of
it. In fact, there should be enough sunshine for highs to rise
into the upper 50s and 60s. Saturday will be similar, with
enough cold air aloft to perhaps get some more vigorous
convection going. It will definitely be cooler Saturday than
Friday, only to warm up again on Sunday. For now, it appears it
should be dry on Sunday, with temperatures warming into the 60s
for much of the area.

Early next week it appears we will have another fairly potent
spring storm system that moves across the central CONUS for the
first half of the work week. The operational models are keeping
Monday mostly dry, though the ensembles are showing some faster
members that push precipitation in here earlier, so we have some
low confidence pops in for Monday. I would not be surprised to
see these disappear here in the next few days. Beyond this, it
is hard to make any additional changes with confidence, as the
operational models are showing an increasing spread in the
timing and strength of this system, and ensembles backing that
up.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 631 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

A low pressure system sliding northeast across the area this
morning has brought an area of predominantly MVFR ceilings with
a smaller area of IFR ceilings in rain, reducing visibilities
to MVFR at times. The lowest conditions are expected between
issuance and 18z, followed by a gradual improvement.
Visibilities will improve first, with these returning to VFR by
16z. The ceilings will take longer, but also returning VFR by
approximately 23z. Winds early this morning are varied with the
low overhead, but as it moves off to the northeast today, winds
will become westerly and then increase for a few hours this
afternoon, then decrease again after 00z. Fog is possible at a
few terminals after 03z tonight, but confidence is low at this
point and have only included it at the most likely sites.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 948 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Issued a Dense Fog Advisory for Two Harbors to the Twin Ports to
Port Wing as fog reducing the visibility to 1 mile or less will
continue this morning until winds increase closer to mid day
from the west. Extended the Small Craft Advisories for the North
Shore and Twin Ports through 1 pm as waves of 3 to 5 feet will
continue to slowly subside through the day. Westerly winds will
increase through the day for the Two Harbors through Twin Ports
zones and along the South Shore with gusts around 25 kts. The
Small Craft Advisories for the South Shore remain in place
through 4 pm where there is highest confidence for gusts around
25 kts to extend deeper into the afternoon.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for
     LSZ140>145.
     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CDT today for LSZ144-145.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ146-
     147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...LE
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...PA