Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 311106
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
606 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Quiet, mainly dry conditions and slightly below normal temperatures
are expected to continue through the short term forecast period as
troughing over the Great Lakes continues to be reinforced, keeping
NNW flow entrenched over the eastern Plains. Fairly significant dry
air through the depth of the column (but especially at 700-400 hPa)
should keep precipitation chances generally low for the rest of this
week and into the weekend, but a few very isolated, very light rain
showers are possible Friday afternoon as a shortwave trough rotates
down into portions of central and eastern Missouri and a bit of
surface-based instability develops.

Highs through Saturday will be in the lower to mid 80s, and lows
will settle in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Winds should also remain
light as surface high pressure continues to drift across the region,
and humidity levels will remain fairly low.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Later half of the forecast remains relatively unchanged as mid and
long range solutions haven`t changed much. As we move through the
last day of the weekend and the into next work week the pattern
across the States will still be amplified enough to keep significant
troughing in place across the eastern CONUS with a modest northwest
flow across the Lower Missouri River Valley. Consequently, while our
general temperature trend will be on the up swing going through the
weekend as the ridge to our west slowly expands into the Plains
States, expectations are that temperatures will still be slightly
below seasonally normal values Sunday. However, by Monday
temperatures will have finished climbing to back near normal, which
means a return of temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for the
beginning of the work week. However, all is not lost, as many
models are advertising a shortwave trough moving through the region
next Wednesday and Thursday. This will likely knock temperatures
back down for Thursday and the periods just beyond. This could also
provide us with our next best chance at widespread rain across the
region as the front moves through Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 606 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

Outside of some very patchy fog early this morning, VFR conditions
are expected through the TAF period. Scattered cumulus with bases
around 5-6 kft is expected to develop by late morning, and winds will
gradually veer to the southeast at speeds around 6-7 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Laflin
LONG TERM...Cutter
AVIATION...Laflin






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