Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 292328
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
628 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 251 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

Areas of rain showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to
lift northeast across the region, in an area of strong isentropic
ascent and high precipitable water. A brief break is possible
between the strongest isentropic lift this evening and a pre-
frontal trough/weak LLJ that will push up to near the KS/MO border
just before sunrise Sunday, but total rainfall amounts are still
expected to exceed 3 inches across southeastern portions of the
forecast area and near 2 inches from the KC metro northeastward.
Although rainfall has been relatively steady, the higher amounts
have resulted in areal and river flooding especially south of
Highway 50, which will be exacerbated by additional rainfall this
evening and again tomorrow, so have kept the Flash Flood Watch in
effect through tomorrow.

A dry slot will move into the region by late morning Sunday,
allowing for a few small, brief breaks in the stratus and a wind
shift to the south, bringing temperatures into the upper 50s to
perhaps even mid 60s across central MO. Additional light rain will
sweep through at least the northwestern quadrant of the forecast
area on the back side of the surface low Sunday night, then the
system will gradually depart Monday morning.

The next chance for precipitation will come Tuesday night and
Wednesday as another trough swings through the region. This system
will not be nearly as robust until it is past our area, and the
heaviest precipitation will stay near the surface low which should
pass south of the CWA.

In general, at least slightly below normal temperatures are
expected through the forecast period with a southerly position of
the upper jet and several systems bringing colder air aloft into
the Plains and Midwest. Warmer conditions may be on the way just
beyond the end of the forecast period.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT SAT APR 29 2017

Ceilings this evening are lingering between MVFR and IFR at the
terminals and this trend is expected to continue for the next few
hours. However, as the night wears on, ceilings are expected to
drop, essentially tanking by early tomorrow morning. As the low
pressure system responsible for this weather approaches and a dry
slot starts pushing into the area tomorrow, look for ceilings to
rise back up, although MVFR to near MVFR conditions look to
prevail for much of the day. NE to easterly winds tonight will
shift from the south by tomorrow with the approach of the
aforementioned low pressure system.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ057-060.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MOZ031>033-038>040-
     043>046-053-054.

&&

$$

Discussion...Laflin
Aviation...lg


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