Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 091058

National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
558 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

Issued at 346 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

A cold front moved through the region overnight bringing with it
some showers and thunderstorms that eastern Kansas and Missouri had
not seen in a number of weeks. However, the rain was not that
widespread as only the southern half of the forecast area received
any rain, and not much at that with radar estimates and ground
observations only showing a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch or
so. The front will continue to settle south today allowing some
cooler temperatures to filter south, resulting in highs in the 60s
today. However, despite the time of year the cooler temperatures
wont hang around long as above normal readings will quickly return
this weekend.

Looking at the forecast more broadly, the pattern over the next week
will be rather zonal as far as our local area is concerned as the
core of the prevailing westerlies will remain to our north over the
next week. So, while an occasional frontal intrusion, like the one
expected Sunday night, will force temperatures to retreat a little,
for the most part the forecast is one of more above normal
temperatures through the middle of October.

Looking at the specifics of the coming weekend and next work week,
temperatures will climb back into the 80s Sunday as winds from the
south pick up ahead of a "cool" front expected to sweep through the
Central Plains Sunday night. Air behind the front wont be that cold
though as the westerlies remain to our north. Additionally, the
frontal passage is expected to be dry as return moisture from the
Gulf is not expected to get as far north as central Kansas or
Missouri. However, this round of above normal temperatures and no
rain will help fuel fire concerns in the coming week as the grasses
and fine fuels start to cure and begin going dormant for the season.
Current forecast for the next week keeps humidity levels and winds
speeds above critical thresholds, but folks with fire concerns will
want to pay more attention in the coming weeks.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 558 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2015

What VFR conditions are out there this morning are expected to give
way to MVFR skies this morning as a deck of low clouds moves south
behind the cold front that swept through overnight. Don`t have a high
degree of confidence on when clouds will clear out as latest models
now point at the clouds sticking around through much of the day.
Still, thoughts are some breaks should spread into the terminals by
the mid-afternoon hours. Otherwise, the wind is expect to persist
from the north through the day before going light and variable
tonight as a surface high slides across the region.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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