Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 020838

338 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2014

Issued at 338 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and storms have ended across the CWA this morning, leaving
mainly quiet conditions for much of today. Light fog and scattered
to broken low stratus will continue to filter along the back side of
last night`s precipitation, but should stay patchy in nature this
morning and will gradually dissipate around sunrise.

Temperatures this afternoon will be near to just a degree or two
below normal as northwest flow quickly flattens and surface winds
remain light and variable on the north side of yesterday`s cold
front. As lee side low pressure develops over the High Plains this
afternoon and turns low-level flow back around to the south, the
surface boundary will begin to retreat north and spread a chance of
storms this evening and overnight throughout the CWA. Strong-severe
storms are not expected with weak upper-level flow and no support
for convection other than the surface boundary and a weak LLJ during
the overnight hours, and storms should be scattered in nature. Storm
chances will continue to lift northeast as the boundary treks across
the CWA on Wednesday, before tapering off Wednesday evening. Highs
Wednesday will rise into the lower 90s on the south side of the
front and the upper 80s where frontal passage will occur later,
although precipitation could affect highs if it becomes widespread.
Highs on Thursday will be even warmer as southerly surface flow
increases and 850 hPa temps increase into the 22 to 24 C range,
likely resulting in highs in the lower to mid 90s CWA-wide.

The next chance of precipitation will begin Thursday night as low
pressure traveling along the Canadian border sends a cold front into
the forecast area. Frontal passage should occur slowly as the parent
low travels farther to the east, spreading storm chances through
Friday and possibly in Saturday morning. Much cooler temperatures
are expected this weekend behind the front, potentially resulting in
2 to 3 consecutive days with highs in the 70s Saturday through
Monday. Southerly flow will eventually return near the end of the
forecast period, bringing a return of seasonable temperatures and
low-end chances for storms.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

Showers and thunderstorms should be east of the forecast area through
the rest of the overnight hours. If the clouds are able to clear out
tonight we still appear on track for some scattered to widespread fog
across the area, which will bring a period of MVFR to perhaps IFR
VSBY at all terminals. Confidence is lowest at the KC sites, so kept
just a mention of MVFR, however a TEMPO for lower thresholds may be
needed as the morning approaches. By mid day the fog will dissipate
and scattered clouds around 3 kft will prevail through the day. By
late evening to early overnight hours on Tuesday night a few
showers and thunderstorms will approach the terminals, but the timing
should dictate a mention in the upcoming 12z forecast.




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