Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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621
FXUS63 KEAX 201734
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1234 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 325 AM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

Upper-level low continues to spin across the central High Plains
this morning, with attendant sfc low slowly lifting north through
eastern Kansas. Rain shield out ahead of this feature gradually
moving east through the forecast area this morning, with mainly
light to occasionally moderate rains noted on area observations.
Considering the transient nature of this rainfall and little
expectations for additional heavy rains this morning, have elected
to let the flash flood watch go a few hours early. Rain should
continue moving east this morning with mostly dry conditions
expected through the day with highs warming into the upper 60s to
lower 70s.

High pressure to slowly settle south over the region on Sunday
which will yield a fine end to the weekend as highs again
climb into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Next chance for rain
expected to arrive during the day on Monday when modest return
flow moisture begins to interact with a weak cold front expected
to approach from the northwest. Overall severe threat looks
marginal as best shortwave energy and associated wind fields
remain to our north and instability remains fairly weak. Behind
this feature, expect below normal temperatures by midweek as broad
upper troughing prevails over the Central U.S. with arriving
surface high pressure ensuring cold air advection across the
Nation`s Heartland. Temperatures should begin to recover by week`s
end as ridging builds overhead and southerly winds return to the
area. Overall, a fairly quiet week sensible weatherwise...

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT SAT MAY 20 2017

The surface low has been taking its time leaving the area, so MVFR
ceilings are expected through the late afternoon/evening time frame.
Clouds should generally clear from south to north. Once the
clouds start to lift, we should see a fairly quick clearing. VFR
conditions will then prevail for the remainder of the period.
Winds will be a little gusty this afternoon, but should decrease
around sunset. Winds will shift overnight from the southwest to
the west-northwest as the surface low exits and a surface high
settles in behind it.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...32
Aviation...Grana



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