Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 151118
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 AM CDT Tue Aug 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 339 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2017

Short Term (Today through Wednesday night):

The main concern in the short term will be for a conditional severe
weather threat on Wednesday and Wednesday night. In addition to the
severe weather threat, heavy rainfall is expected with these storms
which could produce localized flash flooding.

Today, expect a return to more August-like conditions. Temperatures
are expected to rise into the mid to upper 80s thanks, in part,
to shortwave upper level ridging building into the region in
response to a shortwave trough digging from the Great Basin to the
eastern Rockies today. Warm air advection will also continue
today with southerly low-level flow. Factor in dewpoints in the
lower 70s and heat index values today will rise into the low to
mid 90s.

Tonight, the aforementioned shortwave trough will move into the
western High Plains forcing a cold front into the central Plains.
Storms are expected to develop out ahead of the front late this
afternoon and evening across central Nebraska and Kansas. These
storms will role slowly eastward tonight and is expected to move
into the western CWA early tomorrow morning in a weakened fashion.
These showers and thunderstorms will affect the area in the morning
making the severe threat later in the day conditional. However,
despite morning storms and cloud cover, models suggest that
conditions clear in the afternoon and the atmosphere recovering as
the aforementioned cold front moves into the western CWA. 0-6KM
shear of 40kts will be sufficient for strong to severe storms
however, lapse rates will be weak and the amount of instability with
morning storms and clouds is in question. If conditions do become
unstable tomorrow afternoon/evening storms capable of damaging winds
and small hail will be possible. However, of more concern will be
the potential for localized flash flooding. Although storms are not
expected to train they will however be moving slowly and will be
very efficient with PWAT values between 1.75"-2.25". Storms are
expected to exit the area by Thursday morning as the cold front
pushes through the CWA.

Long Range (Thursday through Monday):

Behind the cold front on Thursday, cold air advection will be week
allowing temperatures to continue to range into the middle 80s. High
pressure will move through the area Thursday night into Friday
before shifting east of the area Friday afternoon. This will allow
winds to shift back to the south. However, temperatures are still
expected to be in the mid 80s as clouds will be on the increase.
Another shortwave trough will move through the area Friday night
into Saturday morning bringing another chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Surface high pressure should make for a nice day on
Saturday with highs in the middle 80s. As we get into the latter
part of the weekend and early next week, models are consistent in
building a ridge over the south central and southeastern CONUS. This
should lead to warmer temperatures in the upper 80s. However, what
is in question is the precipitation chances Sunday and Monday as
much will be dictated by the timing of shortwaves rounding the
upper level ridge to the south.

&&

.Specifics for the Total Solar Eclipse on August 21st...
Issued at 339 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2017

Model solutions for Mon 8/21 continues to keep our eclipse
viewing chances a bit nebulous. Models are in good agreement in
the general pattern of an upper level ridge over the southeastern
and south central CONUS which would lend itself to warm conditions
across the region with highs in the upper 80s. However, models all
depict shortwaves rounding the aforementioned upper ridge and
bringing storm chances somewhere to the region. However, the
exact timing and placement of these features is still difficult to
pin down. The most consistent of models is the GFS and Canadian
models which both depict showers and storms across eastern Kansas
in the morning before dissipating that precipitation by the
afternoon. However, the GFS leaves only scattered clouds in the
wake of morning storms whereas the Canadian leaves more dense
cloud cover in its wake. Consequently, it remains too early to
make on a definitive call on what exactly the eclipse sky
conditions will be at this time.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 618 AM CDT TUE AUG 15 2017

Patchy fog exists in the area this morning however sct-bkn high
cloud is beginning to filter over the area which should limit fog
chances at the terminals. Otrw...expect the high cloud to persist
thru the TAF pd. There will be the chance for thunderstorms near
the very end of this TAF pd.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...73
Aviation...73
Eclipse...73



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