Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 130852
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
252 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

.Discussion...
Issued at 251 AM CST TUE FEB 13 2018

Surface winds will shift to the south today and allow for
temperatures to warm to slightly above normal levels with highs
ranging from around 40 along the IA border to the low 50s in our
south. The KC area should be near 50. This warming trend will
continue into Wednesday and Thursday. While it looks to be mainly
dry for this period, there may be some fire weather concerns,
especially with the underlying dry conditions and cured grasses.
There will be some moisture advection back into the area, but the
NAM may be overdone, as is often the case. GFS forecast soundings
show a deep layer of drying air through the day Thursday, ahead of
a cold front. This may lead to an area of just ahead of the front
warming substantially with humidity values falling in response.
The main limiting factor may be the winds, which don`t look all
that strong during the afternoon.

Much colder air will move into the area Friday. This should be short-
lived though as the associated high pressure quickly passes to the
east and allows for southerly flow to commence for Saturday. So
while highs on Friday will be 20s and lower 40s, by Saturday,
highs should be able to climb back into the 40s and low 50s, and
by Sunday, in the upper 40s and middle 50s.

There are no distinguishable storm systems showing up through the
next week that would bring us any substantial moisture. The best
chances for precipitation may not be until the Monday night to
Tuesday time frame next week. But there is so much variability in
the models this far out it`s tough to put much stock into any of the
models at this point.


&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1117 PM CST MON FEB 12 2018

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals over the next 24
hours while the wind slowly veers form east to south.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Cutter



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