000
FXUS63 KEAX 222251
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
551 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight into
  tomorrow. No severe weather is expected.

- Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected Thursday night
  through Sunday. Some of these may be severe.

- Storms Saturday night into Sunday may bring heavy rains with
  flooding possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Strong WAA today has provided strong southerly winds and, after the
cool start to the day, has allow highs to rise into the upper 60s to
mid 70s. Tonight a upper level trough will dig from the Canadian
Plains into the Upper Midwest this will force a cold front into the
area. Instability will be weak however, additional lift provided by
a nocturnal LLJ will allow showers and thunderstorms to develop late
tonight. The front will slowly drop through the CWA Tuesday will
showers exiting the area by late afternoon/evening. With only weak
cold air advection behind the front highs will still rise into the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Tuesday night into Wednesday the area will
be under the influence of a surface ridge of high pressure which
will act to shunt storms south of the forecast area. A light
easterly fetch on Wednesday will hold highs in the mid 60s to lower
60s.

The pattern look to become active on Thursday as a upper level
trough will move from southern California to the Four Corners
region. This will allow upstream upper level ridging to build over
the region. However, cloud cover will hold highs in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. Thursday night the upper level trough will move out into
the central Plains. Several lead shortwaves will bring rounds of
showers and thunderstorms to the area. Friday, the upper level
trough, negatively-tilted will move into the eastern Plains. If the
atmosphere can recover from Thursday night storms severe weather
will be possible on Friday with all modes of severe weather in play.
A brief respite between storm systems is expected in the Friday
night/Saturday timeframe however another upper level trough is
expected to move from the Desert Southwest into the western Plains
during this period. Lead shortwaves out ahead of this trough will
push into the region Saturday night with a a stout 55kt-60kt
southwesterly LLJ pumping copious moisture into the area. Severe
weather looks to be possible with these storms as does flooding with
PWATs 1.50"-1.75" forecast. Severe potential will continue into
Sunday as the upper level trough moves into the region but again
this would be conditional if the atmosphere can recover after
Saturday night convection.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 534 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. Current gusty southerly
winds will relax around sunset, with speeds decreasing below 12kts
by midnight. Potential for scattered showers will increase after
midnight, with best chances/coverage - including a couple
thunderstorms - north of KC terminals near STJ. Rain chances end
by mid-morning, with a wind shift expected out of northwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Blair