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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 110059
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Gattons Park Rx...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
659 PM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0000 MDT on April 11.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Predominantly north flow Thursday morning, shifting to the south
around 1000 hours with tree-top speeds around 10 mph. Smoke
ventilation becoming Good (100000 kt-ft) by the noon hour with
favorable upward motion and transport due north.

Winds increasing Friday into the weekend with gusty southwest
afternoons and RH 10-15% creating elevated to near-critical fire
danger. No precipitation expected through mid-April.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph overnight becoming
                    light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 11 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........0      0      1
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1
Temp............45     43     40
RH..............33     33     36
20 ft wind......N 5    N 5    NW 4
20 ft wind gust.8      8      8
Mix hgt (ft)....600    500    500
Transport wind..N 12   NE 11  NE 11
Haines index....4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..6      6      6
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 8 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......8300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast around 8 mph shifting to the south 10
                    to 14 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to very good (105400 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........4      4      0      3      3      3
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............38     41     58     68     71     72
RH..............38     34     23     17     14     13
20 ft wind......NW 2   NW 2   W 4    SE 8   SE 8   S 8
20 ft wind gust.5      5      8      14     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....1200   1200   7600   7600   8300   8300
Transport wind..NE 8   NE 8   S 10   S 10   S 14   S 14
Haines index....4      3      3      4      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9      9      86     86     105    105
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   GOOD   GOOD   VYGD   VYGD

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 44.
Max humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 11 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (95600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (4900 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........5         3         9         10
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............70        55        49        46
RH..............12        21        23        25
20 FT wind......S 8G14    SE 5G9    SE 5G10   SE 6G10
Mix hgt (ft)....7400      7400      500       500
Transport wind..S 12      S 12      SE 11     SE 13
Haines index....4         4         5         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..96        96        5         5
Ventrate Cat....GOOD      GOOD      POOR      POOR

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Southwest winds around 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 70s.
Southwest winds around 12 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid 60s. West
winds around 14 mph.

$$
Forecaster...DENNHARDT
Requested by...Liz Carver
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410346.0/EPZ
.DELDT 04/11/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL liz.carver@usda.gov