647
FXUS64 KEWX 032121 CCA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
421 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE STORMS...
Issued at 410 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #179 was recently issued and includes Val
Verde, Edwards, Real, Kinney, and Maverick Counties. Storms have
developed in the higher terrain of Mexico and north along the dryline
through West Texas. Several WoFS members indicated the potential for
isolated, splitting storms across Mexico to enter portions of the
Rio Grande between 22Z-02Z (5PM-9PM). Large to very large hail
and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats with any storms
that do manage to make it into the watch area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Convection has begun northeast of Midland along the dryline and over
the mountains east of the Big Bend. This region will be active this
evening and some of these storms could move toward the east into our
CWA. There is a Tornado Watch in effect north of our CWA. We have
chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening, mainly across
the northern counties. There is a chance that some storms could be
strong to severe with very large hail the primary threat and
damaging wind gusts and tornadoes also possible. Convection should
dissipate after midnight. Saturday will be mainly dry. Winds will
shift toward the east early and then back southeast during the
afternoon. This should result in less cloud cover leading to warmer
temperatures over most of the CWA. A cold front will drop through
north TX during the day. Convection will initiate along this front
and move southward toward our area. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase through the afternoon becoming likely in
the evening. SPC has our CWA north and west of the Coastal Plains in
the Marginal Risk area for this time. All severe threats are
possible. At this time the best timing for storms is late evening to
early overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

Rain chances may be ongoing over South Central Texas Sunday morning
and continue through the afternoon hours associated with a departing
shortwave trough. Models hint that a complex of thunderstorms will
move through part of the area Saturday night into Sunday morning,
with some lingering unorganized showers and thunderstorms remaining
into the afternoon. With increasing destabilization through the day,
there could be an isolated threat for a severe storm or two over the
area Sunday afternoon but confidence is too low for any specifics at
this point. PoPs should taper off Sunday evening with drier
conditions returning to the forecast the rest of the week. That
said, moisture in the low to mid levels lingers on Monday and a few
showers would not be out of the question over the Hill Country or
portions of the I-35 corridor. Zonal flow returns over the area on
Tuesday, with upper flow becoming southwesterly mid to late week as
troughing develops over the northern Plains. At the surface, South
Central Texas will heat up Tuesday trough Thursday with the hottest
temperatures expected along the Rio Grande. In the west, triple
digit heat seems likely while the rest of the area stays in the
upper 80s and 90s. Elevated humidity continues east of the dryline
mid to late week which could push some locations over the I-35
corridor and Coastal Plains into triple digit heat indices. A slight
cool down along and low end precipitation chances return Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri May 3 2024

It`s a bad flying day in Austin and San Antonio. IFR/LIFR conditions
are still hanging around. It doesn`t look like there will be a lot of
improvement this afternoon. Ceilings should get to MVFR this
afternoon and maybe briefly to VFR at AUS. Ceilings should lower
again starting this evening dropping to IFR for the late evening and
overnight. There is a small chance for showers and thunderstorms this
evening with better chances at AUS, but too low to include in the
TAF. Ceilings should finally get back to VFR Saturday afternoon.

At DRT clouds have scattered out and they will be VFR through the
afternoon and early evening. There is a chance for showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening with the better chances
during the evening. MVFR ceilings will develop during the evening and
to IFR overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              71  85  69  82 /  20  20  70  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  85  68  82 /  20  10  60  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     71  88  71  84 /  20  10  60  50
Burnet Muni Airport            69  82  67  80 /  30  30  70  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           74  91  72  87 /  40  30  70  50
Georgetown Muni Airport        69  83  67  80 /  30  30  70  60
Hondo Muni Airport             70  88  69  83 /  30  20  70  60
San Marcos Muni Airport        70  86  69  83 /  20  10  60  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  85  72  82 /  20  10  40  50
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  86  71  83 /  30  10  60  50
Stinson Muni Airport           72  89  72  85 /  20  10  60  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Update...76
Short-Term...05
Long-Term...27
Aviation...05