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000
FXUS64 KEWX 200524
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1224 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Mainly zonal flow aloft over South Central Texas today with a
surface front draped from west to east across the CWA. This front is
expected to stall this evening and will aid in the shower and storm
chances tomorrow. Mainly dry conditions are expected through this
afternoon, although a stray shower or weak storm could be possible
in this regime. Cloud cover and north to east winds will keep
conditions noticeably cooler today than previous days with highs
mainly in the 70s to the north and 80s in the south. Better
precipitation chances are seen in the west later this evening as a
weak upper level disturbance may ignite some thunderstorms over
Mexico that move into areas along the Rio Grande. Low to moderate
CAPE but sufficient shear indicate a strong storm cannot be ruled
out as it moves over the river, although they would likely quickly
weaken as they continue east into the overnight hours.

Some additional disturbances bring chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms Saturday morning, although the better forcing comes
later in the afternoon through Sunday morning. This is due to an
upper level shortwave that moves over the area as the quasi-
stationary front continues to linger across South Central Texas.
Moderate CAPE and bulk shear of around 40-45 knots will lead to a
low threat for isolated severe storms. Hail and damaging wind gusts
would be be the main concern with elevated storms and SPC has
continued a Level 1 of 5 Risk across much of South Central Texas for
this potential. With PWATs up to 200 percent of normal for mid-
April, thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy rain,
especially if training storms are seen. Thunderstorms may produce
isolated flooding across locations that see the heaviest totals
which are currently forecast over the northeastern portion of the
CWA. WPC continues the Level 1-2 risk for excessive rain across much
of the area for tomorrow into Sunday. Overall, rainfall amounts
range from around 0.5-2 inches. Drier conditions return from west to
east after midnight through Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Cool, dry, and breezy conditions can be expected during the day
Sunday as surface high pressure builds into the southern Plains,
finally pushing the lingering cold front out into the Gulf.

The remainder of the long term period looks to be quiet from a
weather standpoint as 500mb ridging builds into the region from the
west. This will also lead to a gradual warming trend through next
week. Towards the end of the work week, indications are that a
shortwave or two will move quickly from the Desert Southwest into
the Plains, but there is a good amount of model disagreement
regarding both timing and trajectories. Whether or not the
shortwave(s) move more into the central or southern Plains will be
the primary driver of precipitation chances late in the week. For
now, we will stick with the NBM which introduces low chances for
thunderstorms across northern portions of the CWA on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024

Scattered showers continue near DRT with little thunder activity.
Will just mention VCSH for a couple of more hours. MVFR/IFR
conditions will be expected overnight with little to no improvement
expected during the day tomorrow. Should see some possible scattered
showers and maybe a storm during the early afternoon tomorrow before
more widespread activity is expected in the late afternoon and
evening hours. Will prevail tsra for the I35 sites to handle this.
May see some lingering showers after the line moves through and will
keep from VCSH in for a few more hours. IFR conditions will continue
tomorrow night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              52  65  49  73 /  90   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  51  64  47  72 /  90   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     53  67  49  73 /  90   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            50  62  47  70 /  90   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           60  75  57  75 /  50  10  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        50  63  46  71 /  90   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             53  71  49  73 /  80   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        52  66  47  72 /  90   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   55  64  49  71 /  90   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       54  67  51  72 /  90   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           56  69  52  73 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...Gale
Aviation...29