980
FXUS64 KEWX 281953
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
253 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Convection continues across south central Texas with a cluster of
storms ongoing across Williamson county and severe storms in the
coastal plains. Breaks in the cloud cover should bring about
destabilization of the atmosphere through this afternoon, especially
east of I-35/I-37 as this area has largely not seen much convection
yet. Healthy southeast winds in the lower levels and 0-6km shear
near 50kts will be enough to get storms rotating. SPC has issued
Tornado Watch #158 until 9 PM for our counties east of the I-35/I-37
corridors.

With the loss of daytime heating, we should see a decrease in the
coverage of convection and we will remove rain chances after
Midnight. Patchy fog development is expected, especially from the
Hill Country eastward given recent rains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The Subtropical Jet will remain active through the long term
forecast period, with daily rain and storm chances in the works for
South Central Texas. Periods of rain and storms, some possibly
producing beneficial to locally heavy rainfall appear possible
through next weekend.

On Tuesday afternoon, PWATs will steadily climb from 1-1.25" in the
morning to the 1.5"-1.75" range and they aren`t expected to drop
below that range through the remainder of the long term period. As
southwest flow aloft continues, it will send a series of shortwave
disturbances through South Central Texas. There will be several
notable periods for better storm chances over the region, most
notably Wednesday evening and again Friday night as global models
want to send a cold front through the region from north to south.
Guidance has been back and forth on whether or not this frontal
boundary will even move into the region, so take the forecast for
cooler temperatures with a grain of salt as confidence at this
distance is still quite low. Ensembles have backed off the idea of a
front moving through the CWA at all, so the forecast is increasingly
uncertain from Friday morning onward.

WPC has highlighted the Hill Country, I-35 Corridor north of San
Antonio, and the Coastal Plains in a Thursday and Friday level 1 of
4 (Marginal Risk) for excessive rainfall. The overall pattern
supports this threat, but where exactly any heavier storms set up is
tough to pinpoint at this time. For the time being, expect some
warm, muggy mornings in the lower 70s, along with afternoons in the
mid to upper 80s and lower 90s Tuesday-Thursday before slightly
cooler air arrives Friday and Saturday with the potential front
getting picked up in the NBM guidance.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Showers continue along the I-35 corridor near AUS. Some TSRA noted as
well, with trends suggesting thunder will remain mainly north of
AUS. Will need to monitor carefully for the possibility of adding a
mention TSRA to the forecast for this afternoon for the I-35 sites.
MVFR cigs likely to return quickly this evening around 06Z, possibly
sooner given rainfall. Cigs likely to drop into IFR around 12Z and
will need to consider the possibility of VLIFR as well. Out west at
DRT, cigs will return a little later, but will be low end MVFR into
upper end IFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  88  69  86 /  10   0  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  88  67  85 /  10  10  10  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  89  69  87 /  10  10  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            66  86  67  84 /   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           67  96  74  95 /   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        67  87  66  85 /  10   0  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             67  90  69  89 /   0   0  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  88  68  86 /  10  10  10  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   72  86  70  84 /  40  10  10  40
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  88  70  86 /   0   0  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           70  90  71  87 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...Platt