531
FXUS63 KFGF 051958
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
258 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- First chance of the season for organized thunderstorms arrives
  Monday/Tuesday.

- Gusty southerly winds Monday into Monday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Overall trend into tonight and Monday remains the same with the
large upper level negatively tilted trough in the southwestern US
with the initial shortwave ejecting east northeastward into the
Plains into Monday. Southerly flow picks up ahead of the system with
the sfc pres gradient increasing and strong winds aloft. Soundings
indicating mixed layer winds in the mid to upper 30s kt range and
some toward the 40 kt range in the RRV and points to the west. Winds
in the far north/east will remain gusty with some gusts into the 30-
40 mph range, but overal expect to remain below advisory criteria.
Therefore will issue an advisory for much of Monday into Monday
evening for the southwestern two-thirds of the forecast area.

Strong theta-e advection in advance of the main trough with an
elongated surface low in place across western ND/southern
Saskatchewan in place across the forecast area by late Monday
afternoon into Monday night. This should spread an area of showers
and some potential thunderstorms across the western two-thirds of
the forecast area through the day Monday into Monday night. Question
as to how much CAPE develops into the forecast area, with ensembles
showing potential of a around 100 J/kg SBCAPE into the far
south/southwest by 00Z Tuesday with around 30-35Kts deep layer
shear. Therefore still some potential for a strong thunderstorm
across the south late Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

However a more interesting setup with some weak low level CAPE and
low level shear Tuesday afternoon in the east/northeast. The surface
low continues to wobble around far NW ND/SRN Sask with the sfc
trough axis stretching eastward through the forecast area lifting
northeastward along with the sfc cold front through northern MN
Tuesday afternoon. This can provide a setup for a few strong storms
as well. Low level shear around 10-15 kts and low level CAPE around
100 J/kg or so, which could lead to some rotation in stronger cells
and quick stretching potential. If low level shear gets a bit
stronger with a bit more instability, this setup can bring brief
funnel cloud/landspout potential. Will continue to monitor for that
potential in any stronger storm development with any clearing
along/near the cold front boundary lifting northward Tuesday
afternoon.

Split flow for the remainder of the period with mainly northerly
flow aloft keeping the area seasonal or slightly warmer with little
predictability for rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions continue through the period. Winds forecast to
become more southeasterly and increase after 00Z as a developing
area of low pressure deepens and pushes across the area.
Continuing to monitor conditions for tomorrow as the low
develops with potential for low topped supercells late in the
period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for
     NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 1 AM CDT Tuesday for
     MNZ001>004-007-027-029>031-040.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MJB
AVIATION...Hopkins