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000
FXUS63 KFGF 230057
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
757 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Critical fire weather conditions are expected through 8 pm for
  southeast North Dakota and the Red River Valley, along with
  near critical conditions for parts of west central Minnesota.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 733 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Thunderstorms near Lake of the Woods was observed to deposit
small hail at Morris Point, along with mPing report of pea sized
hail near Roosevelt. However, this area of thunderstorms has
recently exited our area into Ontario. The chance for additional
hail and convectively driven wind gusts over 50 mph is very low
(less than 10%) heading into this evening.

Starting to see RH values creep up as the sun starts to set.
While this will mark the lessening of critical fire weather
conditions, gusty winds will continue through the night turning
more out of the north as a front moves through this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Seeing a few different areas of precipitation now. The light
morning showers that moved through the Valley extend from Lake
of the Woods to near Fosston. Another batch has formed over the
northern Red River Valley and the last area is moving into north
central North Dakota. The only lightning strikes so far have
been north of the 500mb low near Dauphin Manitoba. However, a
few rumbles of thunder are possible yet late this afternoon into
the early evening, mainly across the Devils Lake basin and
northern Valley. Then lingering showers are anticipated mainly
along and north of Interstate 94 overnight. There was a dry
surge into the central and northern Valley this afternoon, with
temperatures into the mid to upper 60s and west winds gusting
to 30 to 35 mph. Because of this, expanded the Red Flag Warning
into the entire Red River Valley (see the Fire Weather section
below). The gusty winds should begin to decrease again around or
after dark.

As the 500mb low tracks into northern Minnesota very late
tonight into Tuesday morning, there will be a secondary push of
925mb cold advection. Therefore surface winds will increase
again late tonight into Tuesday morning, and continue to be
gusty through the day Tuesday. These winds could approach Wind
Advisory criteria, but at this point think they will be just
below criteria.

Brief 500mb ridging pushes in Wednesday into Thursday, so will
have to keep an eye on fire weather parameters both these days
too. At this point, Wednesday looks like the lower humidity day,
while Thursday has stronger winds (both don`t line up together).
A wetter period arrives by Thursday night and beyond, as
northern and southern stream lows eject out into the Northern
Plains in some sort of southwest flow. There are still a lot of
uncertainties with how this may evolve. At this point, the
higher probabilities for precipitation look to be across
southeast North Dakota into west central Minnesota, but stay
tuned for later forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 733 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Gusty winds over 20kt will continue into tonight into Tuesday,
turning from westerly to northwesterly and northerly between
06Z-12Z. Scattered rain showers will also continue into
tonight into Tuesday.

VFR CIGs turn MVFR to IFR between 06Z-12Z, lasting through 18Z.
Ceilings are forecast to break up after 18Z turning more
scattered.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 745 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

With the sun starting to set, RH values are starting their
rebound. Despite RH values increasing for the evening, gusty
winds will continue into tonight, turning more northerly after
midnight as a front moves through from the north.

Scattered light rain showers will continue across the area,
although very little precipitation amounts are forecast, likely
remaining under 0.10 inches.

Previous discussion issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024..

Seeing a dewpoint drop even over the central and northern Red
River Valley early this afternoon. Along with winds that are
pretty gusty through early evening, went ahead and expanded the
Red Flag Warning to include the entire Red River Valley through
8 pm. The thicker clouds and slightly cooler temperatures are
further west, mainly over north central North Dakota, so don`t
see much reason for any change over the Red Flag Warning area
until early to mid evening.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NDZ008-016-
     024-027>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MNZ001>004-
     007-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...Godon
AVIATION...Godon
FIRE WEATHER...Godon/CJ