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000
FXUS65 KFGZ 230349
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
849 PM MST Mon Apr 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry and breezy conditions continue through the
middle of the week. Cooler and more unsettled conditions return for
the second half of the week, with a chance of showers Thursday and
again late Friday through Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...Clouds that developed due to daytime heating are
dissipating this evening and skies will become mostly clear
overnight. Smoke/haze may be present near recent prescribed burns
and in the nearby valleys. Winds will become light overnight and
temperatures will cool off nicely. Aside from adding some smoke/haze
into the forecast, everything looks to be right on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /423 PM MST/...Dry and increasingly breezy weather will continue
through Wednesday as ridging over the southwest gradually gets
pushed eastward by a trough moving onto the west coast. Today will
be the warmest day of the week, with high temperatures cooling a
few degrees both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thursday - the west coast trough moves across Arizona. Weak lift
and instability combine for a chance of showers starting in the
early morning hours from Flagstaff westward, spreading eastward
through the afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be light with
the probability of 0.10" or greater only around 10% for the high
country and even lower in the valleys. Temperatures will be around
10 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Southwest wind gusts pick up to
30-45 mph, strongest from the White Mountains into th else e
Little Colorado River valley including Winslow, Holbrook, and St
Johns.

Friday and Saturday - the next trough moves through the state.
This one is forecast to be a bit colder and wetter than the
Thursday system. Some timing uncertainty remains, with the latest
EC solutions faster with the arrival of precipitation (mid day
Friday) and other guidance holding off until Friday evening into
Saturday. Expect temperatures to cool to below normal. Windy
conditions persist Friday with widespread gusts 30-45 mph. The
latest precipitation forecasts call for 0.10"-0.30" along the
higher terrain above 6000 ft, with a trace to 0.10" for the lower
elevations. Snow levels remain uncertain but could fall to near
7000 feet Friday night/Saturday morning with some light
accumulation above 7500 feet. Drier/warmer conditions return
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 23/00Z through Wednesday 24/00Z...VFR
conditions with areas of high clouds will continue through the TAF
period. Localized MVFR will be possible due to FU/HZ near
prescribed fires, with main impacts likely near KPAN. Look for
S-SW winds of 10-20 kts to pick up after 18Z, and gusts up to 30
kts.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 24/00Z through Friday 26/00Z...VFR conditions
will mostly persist, outside of MVFR ceilings/visibilities from
FU/HZ and isolated -SHRA on Thursday. Winds will generally be out
of the SW at 15-25 kts, gusting 30-40 kts each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...Dry and warm, but
temperatures gradually cool and southwest winds increase each day.
Expect winds at 10-15 mph, gusting 20-30 mph Tuesday and 25-35 mph
on Wednesday. Minimum RH values ranging from single digits to teens.

Thursday through Saturday...Temperatures continue cooling. A chance
of showers (20-40%) Thursday will primarily be for Coconino County;
wetting rains unlikely. Southwest winds will peak Thursday at 15-30
mph, gusting 30-45 mph. Minimum RH will increases to around 20-40%
with much higher overnight recovery values. Scattered showers are
expected across northern Arizona overnight Friday through Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/JJ
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff