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000
FXUS64 KFWD 212338
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
638 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Tonight through Monday Night/

Surface high pressure will settle into the region overnight
tonight with northerly winds becoming light and variable under
mostly clear skies. Good radiational cooling should allow
temperatures to fall into the lower 40s across North Texas with
perhaps a few rural locations dropping into the upper 30s. As the
surface high moves off to the east on Monday, winds will become
more southerly and temperatures will climb back into the lower
70s. Mostly clear skies are expected on Monday night with
temperatures in the 50s.

Dunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 1254 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024/

Update:

No major changes with the most recent forecast update, as we are
still looking at another active pattern setting up mid to late
week. Low rain chances return to portions of North Texas late
Tuesday through Thursday, but more widespread shower/storm chances
are expected Friday through the weekend. Most of the activity
Tuesday and Wednesday will remain west/north of our area as
convection develops along a dryline and a cold front. However, a
lingering storm or two may sneak into our western and northern
counties Tuesday night into Wednesday. Precipitation chances will
increase area wide Friday through the weekend as a series of upper
level systems travel across the region. We can`t rule out the
potential for a few strong to severe storms, but details are still
uncertain at this time.

Sanchez

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Night Onward/

Return flow will already be in place Monday night, and will
strengthen on Tuesday as North and Central Texas becomes
positioned between a cold front to the north, dryline to the west,
and surface ridge to the east. The resulting narrow pressure
gradient will increase south winds to 15-25 MPH with occasional
higher gusts by Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, a mid level ridge
will strengthen overhead, helping to return temperatures to near-
normal values for the midweek period. The front will stall near
or just north of the Red River, providing as focus for isolated
thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours
both Tuesday and Wednesday. The presence of the ridge will
preclude more widespread convection, and POPs will be limited to
areas generally north of the I-20 corridor (closest to the front
and farthest from the ridge axis).

The front will retreat north on Thursday as a shortwave trough
advances east through the Four Corners region and a lee surface
trough deepens. Any thunderstorms which would affect the region
Thursday afternoon and evening would need to initialize near the
dryline, which should still be located well west of the forecast
area. A strong capping inversion may end up shutting off
convection as it attempts to move east into the region, keeping
any POPs in the slight chance range. Slightly better storm chances
will occur on Friday as the shortwave lifts northeast through the
Plains and the dryline shifts farther east to near Highway 281.
Thunderstorms which fire near the surface boundary would likely
survive the trek across the I-35 corridor Friday evening before
dissipating overnight Friday night. Some of the Friday storms
would likely have a potential to produce large hail, though it is
still a bit too soon to speculate on all of the severe weather
parameter details.

Unsettled weather will continue next weekend as a deeper upper
trough takes shape over the western CONUS, providing additional
chances for thunderstorms across the region. A lead shortwave will
lift northeast through the plains on Saturday, generating another
possible round of dryline-induced convection Saturday afternoon
and evening (similar to Friday). The main trough will eventually
move through the Plains next Sunday into the following Monday,
providing additional storm chances, with activity focused along an
attendant Pacific front.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

VFR will prevail through the period with northerly winds around
10 kt becoming light and variable overnight. South winds will
return on Monday morning around 10 kt. No significant aviation
concerns are expected through the period.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    47  71  55  79  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
Waco                45  70  53  77  62 /   0   0   0   0   5
Paris               40  67  50  74  58 /   0   0   0   5  10
Denton              42  70  53  79  61 /   0   0   0   5  10
McKinney            42  69  54  77  61 /   0   0   0   5  10
Dallas              47  71  55  79  63 /   0   0   0   0  10
Terrell             42  69  52  77  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
Corsicana           45  71  53  78  62 /   0   0   0   0   5
Temple              45  70  52  78  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       43  71  53  82  61 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$