822
FXUS64 KFWD 300040
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
740 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/This Evening through Wednesday Morning/

The rest of the evening will remain quiet as weak ridging
continues to build in behind a departing upper level trough. Down
at the surface, deepening low pressure to our northwest will
force winds to shift to a more southerly direction and kick start
warm air advection across the region tonight. Increased low-level
clouds will advance northward, accompanied by another round of
patchy mist/fog. Unlike earlier this morning where efficient
radiational processes created the dismal visibilities across
North and Central Texas, this patchy fog will be due to warm
advection. With the somewhat tightened surface pressure gradient,
winds should stay elevated just enough to preclude a more drastic
decrease in conditions. For your morning commute you can expect
generally minor visibility restrictions for most, though portions
of East Texas will see the lowest visibilities thanks to light
winds and lower dewpoint depressions.

Further to our west, that warm air advection will aid in the
refinement of our seemly ever-present dryline. By Tuesday
afternoon temperatures will peak in the mid-upper 80s for most,
with some out west potentially reaching the 90 degree mark. The
afternoon and early evening will generally be quiet as we stay
capped. However, guidance continues to show a shortwave and its
accompanying ascent move in behind the our departing ridge late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. With this current solution,
isolated to scattered storms will form off the dryline to our
west and move east. The more modest of CAMs have the storms
dissipating just as they arrive at our doorstep, but there remain
low chances that our west and northwestern counties may observe a
couple storms late tomorrow. If a storm were to occur, parameter
space and analog soundings suggest the main threat would be hail.
Due to this, have kept 15-20% PoPs in the public forecast.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 314 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024/
/Wednesday Onward/

A shortwave trough will sweep across the Rockies on Wednesday
before lifting northeast through the Plains on Thursday. This will
provide a couple of opportunities for thunderstorms, the first
being Wednesday night associated with the dryline, and the second
being on Thursday as an attendant cold front pushes through. Good
instability will be in place for both events. Weak flow aloft may
mitigate the severe weather threat for the Wednesday night
convection, with effective shear values holding in the 15 to 20 kt
range. Values will increase to near 35 kt on Thursday as the
shortwave crosses the Plains, which could support severe
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. All activity will push
south of the region Thursday night or Friday morning as the front
heads for South Central and Southeast Texas.

Slightly cooler weather can be expected this weekend in the wake
of the front. The upper level pattern will remain unsettled,
however, with the next shortwave shifting from the Rockies to the
Plains Friday night. This feature will help ignite scattered
showers and storms across the Big Country, which will enter our
western zones Friday night. The front will be stationary to our
south, keeping storms elevated in nature and largely sub-severe,
though 8+ degree mid level lapse rates may allow for large hail in
a few cells. A shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet will
then lift northeast from West Texas into the Southern Plains
Saturday night, bringing another potential round of elevated
showers and storms, which may also be capable of hail.

The front will then return to the north as a warm front on
Sunday as an upper low approaches from the west and a lee-side
surface trough strengthens. Scattered light rain showers and
perhaps an isolated storm or two may accompany the front as it
crosses the CWA, with activity shifting north of the Red River
along with the front Sunday afternoon. The next rain chances will
be Sunday night or Monday as the low traverses the Plains and
generates more dryline convection. Temperatures will otherwise
return to slightly above-normal values next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

East to southeasterly winds will gradually shift to the south this
evening and overnight in response to deepening low pressure to our
northwest. Winds overnight will remain around 5 or so kts, and
will allow for some patchy mist to occur underneath MVFR cigs.
minor visibility restrictions are possible at the airports
overnight, and could potentially go IFR at ACT. The HREF and SREF
probabilities of this are lower at this time, with higher probs
further south. Hence, have kept MVFR cigs for now at ACT, though
this will need to be watched overnight. Otherwise, any vis/cig
reductions should improve by mid-late morning, becoming VFR.
Expect southerly winds at all TAF sites between 10-15 kts
generally through the rest of the period.

Prater

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    64  87  70  84  69 /   0   0   5  30  50
Waco                61  84  68  82  69 /   0   5   5  40  50
Paris               59  84  65  83  67 /   0   0   5  30  30
Denton              61  85  68  82  67 /   0   0   5  20  50
McKinney            61  85  67  82  68 /   0   0   5  30  50
Dallas              64  87  69  84  69 /   0   0   5  30  50
Terrell             61  84  67  83  68 /   0   0   5  40  50
Corsicana           64  86  68  84  70 /   0   5   5  40  50
Temple              63  85  69  83  69 /   0   5   5  40  50
Mineral Wells       61  87  68  84  68 /   0   5  10  20  60

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$