473
FXUS64 KFWD 051053
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
553 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:

The heaviest of the rainfall has now pushed into southeast Texas
this morning with the back edge of the precipitation east of I-35
and across our eastern counties. Widespread heavy rainfall
overnight resulted in numerous instances of flash flooding and
several flash flood warnings remain in effect for the ongoing
impacts. With conditions improving later this morning, we should
see water start to recede. A weak frontal boundary will remain
draped across our far southern counties through this afternoon and
this may serve as a focus for additional isolated storm
development, but overall chances are around 20%. Any additional
rainfall in areas that saw overnight rains would be susceptible to
additional flooding. Given the low probabilities of additional
storms, no additional extension of the flood watch is required at
this time.

Dunn

Previous Discussion:
/Through Sunday night/

Thunderstorms will continue to move across North and Central
Texas overnight. Most of the storms have stayed below severe
limits but we did received a few hail reports. We have seen
impressive rainfall totals across portions of West Central Texas
this evening with some amounts exceeding 5 inches in a few hours.
The highest total we have seen through late evening was almost 8
inches of rain at Hamilton. The eastern half of the CWA has not
seen much rain this evening but it will come overnight with the
arrival of a shortwave. We still anticipate the heaviest rainfall
south of I-20 near and just north of a stalled frontal boundary,
but with precipitable water values in excess of 1.5 inches region-
wide, just about any location could receive appreciable rainfall.
Therefore, we will keep a Flood Watch in place for the entire CWA
overnight through Sunday morning. Storms will end from west to
east Sunday morning with increasing subsidence on the backside of
the departing shortwave. However, with the surface boundary
stalling across parts of Central Texas and deep moisture remaining
in place, we could still see a few showers and storms developing
Sunday afternoon, especially across our Central Texas counties.
Any storms that do manage to form should dissipate during the
evening.

Saturated ground and a relatively light wind Sunday night will
promote fog development. Since low clouds will also be present, we
don`t anticipate widespread dense fog, but the visibility in some
spots could fall to around 1 mile.

Temperatures tonight and Sunday night will remain mild due to
plenty of moisture and clouds with lows staying in the 60s. Highs
Sunday will slowly warm into the 70s to around 80 degrees.

79

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 255 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024/
/Next Week Through Mother`s Day Weekend/

On Monday, a negatively-tilted upper-level trough will eject
northeastward across the Northern and Central Plains. Dewpoints
in the low/mid 70s coupled with mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km
will drive strong instability (MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg) ahead of an
eastward mixing dryline. Deep boundary layer mixing coinciding
with the strong height falls overspreading the Plains, especially
across Kansas and Oklahoma, should eventually overcome any
remaining capping by the late afternoon. Convective coverage is
likely to be lower the further south you go due to weaker ascent
and a lingering cap. Any storms that manage to develop, particularly
north of I-20, should quickly become severe, capable of producing
large hail and damaging wind gusts.

By Tuesday, an occluded vertically stacked low will be present
over the Northern Plains with zonal flow stretching across the
Central CONUS. At the surface, a trailing cold front will begin
to sweep across western Kansas and Oklahoma while a dryline
lingers near the Texas Panhandle. In response to additional
pressure falls in the lee of the southern Rockies, surface winds
will veer to the southwest on Tuesday. A byproduct of the warm/dry
advection in the 850-700mb layer, temperatures will climb above
climate normals Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s
to lower 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat
indices will be nearing 100 degrees across portions of Central
Texas each afternoon. This bout of late spring heat will be brief
however, as a favorably timed shortwave trough and nearby
dryline/cold front will bring additional storm chances and cooler
post-frontal air to the region mid to late week.

On Wednesday, strong diurnal heating/destabilization coupled with
forcing for ascent (from a combination of low-level convergence
and larger-scale ascent attendant to the passing shortwave) will
result in convective development along the dryline. Additionally,
the cold front moving through southeastern Oklahoma may become
another focus for convective development Wednesday afternoon and
evening. Forecast soundings east of the projected dryline position
(near the I-35 corridor) indicate the presence of strong
instability and deep layer shear. This environment will be
favorable for severe weather with a threat for large hail and
damaging wind gusts.

This unsettled pattern will linger through Thursday as a second
shortwave moves overhead while the cold front continues to slowly
sag southward into Central and Southeast Texas. A few strong to
severe storms cannot be ruled out. In the wake of the departing
upper trough and surface cold front, surface ridging will amplify
over the Central CONUS Friday and Saturday bringing a seasonable
but dry start to Mother`s Day weekend with highs in the mid 70s.
Our next chance of precipitation may not be too far off however,
as a weak shortwave trough approaches from the west on Sunday.

12

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12Z TAFs/

Showers and thunderstorms have pushed to the east of the major
airports this morning and additional storm chances this afternoon
are pretty low. We will have to contend with some MVFR cigs in the
wake of this rainfall, although conditions will improve this
afternoon. Widespread MVFR cigs are expected again tonight with
some patchy fog developing as well.

Winds will be a little chaotic this morning with a general
easterly direction. These should prevail out of the southeast
later today and tonight.

Dunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  67  83  72  88 /  30   5  20  20   5
Waco                77  67  81  71  87 /  40  10  10  10   0
Paris               74  64  80  70  86 / 100  10  20  30   5
Denton              76  65  82  69  87 /  20   5  20  20   5
McKinney            76  65  81  71  87 /  60   5  20  20   5
Dallas              78  67  83  72  89 /  40   5  20  20   5
Terrell             77  66  81  70  86 /  80  10  10  20   5
Corsicana           79  68  83  72  88 /  80  10  10  10   5
Temple              78  67  83  71  88 /  40  10  10   5   0
Mineral Wells       77  66  83  67  88 /  10   5  20  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ093>095-104>107-
119>123-134-135-146>148-160>162-174-175.

&&

$$