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000
FXUS65 KGGW 100817
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
217 AM MDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- A quick moving clipper will bring rain and snow showers through
  late afternoon today
- Strong winds with this system will require a Lake Wind Advisory
  through tonight
- Temperatures warm above average through the weekend with a few
  isolated rain showers possible
- Cooler and unsettled weather for next week.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Quick moving clipper system is moving through the region bringing
rain and snow showers with it through late afternoon. Probs of
seeing 0.10" of precipitation or higher range from 10% over the
southwestern zones to 40-50% in the northwestern zones with any
snow that does fall not being expected to accumulate. Strong upper
level winds mixing to the surface will keep the need for a Lake
Wind Advisory until 8pm tonight, but locally stronger gusts may be
possible with these showers as evidenced by a rogue 63 mph wind
gust produced here at the WFO Office by a shower that produced a
trace of rain at best.

This system exits tonight and an upper level ridge builds in over
the region for a couple days bringing temperatures back to above
average. During the weekend the ridge gets tempered by an
anomalously deep trough and low pressure system digging south over
the West coast as well as another upper level Low forming over
Canada. A few showers could move into the area thanks to the West
Coast Low during the weekend, however its another Low forming over
the Gulf of Alaska that could drop south over us early next week
that may be the bigger influence on our weather with unsettled
weather and temperatures falling back to below mid April averages.
Will have to keep an eye on this to see if this scenario plays
out.

CONFIDENCE AND POTENTIAL DEVIATIONS FROM BASE FORECAST:

High confidence on the gusty wind and timing of the precipitation moving
through today with medium confidence on precipitation amounts.
Confidence on above average temperatures is high over the next
couple days, but falls to medium with low confidence on shower
chances through the weekend, will all depend on where the West
Coast Low sets up.

Low to medium confidence on the pattern change for next week as
its still pretty far out, long term models show a trough, but
still differences on precipitation placements and amounts.

-Bernhart


&&

.AVIATION...

UPDATED: 0800z

FLIGHT CATEGORY: VFR-MVFR, brief IFR possible under showers

DISCUSSION:

Clipper system brings rain and snow showers through the region
through 00Z. Strong winds will mix to the surface later this
morning and lasting through at least 03Z, but strong localized
gusty winds will be possible with any shower that moves over the
terminals today.

WINDS: NW 20-25kts, gusts to 40kts. Stronger localized gusts
possible with convective showers.

-Bernhart


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow