Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 250901
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
401 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues to transition to snow this morning and
  northwest winds will continue to gust to the 40-55 MPH range
  at times through the day.

- Slight eastward shift in heaviest band of snow. Blizzard
  Warning and Winter Weather Advisory were expanded to account
  for this.

- Snow intensity and coverage may decrease late this morning
  into the afternoon, but another "uptick" in wind/snow is
  expected this evening.

- Snow ends by sunrise Tuesday. Dry and warming through the rest
  of the work week.

- Next chance for precipitation is Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

The winter storm is on-track with some minor changes.
Temperatures have been running a bit cooler than forecast, and
dual-pol radar shows the warm near-surface layer steadily
diminishing. Road cameras already show accumulating snow from
Kearney down to Alma. 06Z models also hint in a slight eastward
shift in heaviest snow. Taking all of this into account, the
Blizzard Warning was expanded slightly.

By mid morning, most areas (except for far SE) should be seeing
snow or a wintry mix. At the same time, snow rates will be
decreasing by mid to late morning as the surface low pushes
eastward and weakens slightly. Temperatures will continue to
fall through the morning though, which should still result in
slick roads for most. Because of this a Winter Weather Advisory
was added for most of the rest of the area starting at 10am
today.

Late this afternoon and this evening, another uptick in
snow/wind is expected as the main upper low pushes through. For
areas near/east of Highway 281, the evening will be the peak
timeframe for accumulating snow. Snow gradually diminishes after
midnight tonight, but continued northwest wind gusts to 40-55
MPH will lead to additional blowing snow issues.

Overall, forecast snow totals have also increased within the
heaviest portion of the band. Areas from Lexington up to Ord
could see as much as 9 inches of snowfall. Amounts still
decrease very quickly as you move eastward, with Grand
Island/Hastings expected to be in the 1-3 inch range.
Southeastern portions of the area (Thayer/Filmore counties)
might be lucky to even see an inch.

Tuesday be dry, but cold. The morning will start off with
subzero wind chills for most. Northwest winds will slowly
decrease as the system pushes to our east, continued cold air
advection will keep highs from rising any higher than the upper
20s and low 30s.

The pattern shifts warmer for the middle to end of next week.
Southerly winds return, and snow will begin to melt. By Thursday
and Friday, highs are favored to reach the 50s and 60s. Some
spots in Kansas could even hit 70 degrees.

Details are pretty uncertain, but another system will bring us
our next chance for precipitation as early as late Saturday
night (but more likely on Sunday/Monday). Ensembles do not show
much signal for significant snow, but some light snow cannot be
ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024

Rain gradually changes to snow from west to east Monday
morning. EAR will see more intense and a longer period of snow
this morning, but both sites should see snow and blowing snow
through Monday afternoon.

Northwest winds continue to increase, with gusts to around
40kts through Monday afternoon and evening.

Ceilings may begin to improve late in the period, but
confidence in this is low.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NEZ041-047-
     048-062-063-074>076-083>085.
     Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for NEZ039-040-046-060-
     061-072-073-082.
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for KSZ005-006-
     017.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels


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