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000
FXUS65 KGJT 172109
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
309 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow will continue over the northern Colorado mountains
  with a couple inches at best expected above 10000 feet.

- Unsettled weather continues through the end of the week as
  additional waves brush the region.

- Temperatures will largely trend above normal through the week
  with winds gusting in the 20 to 30 mph range most afternoons.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 309 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

The battle of the northern and southern stream will continue
over our CWA through Thursday night. Luckily this fracas won`t
amount to much but some light snow over the highest terrain of
the northern and central mountains. Oh and wind. The northern
stream will dominate the flow to begin the forecast as we are on
the periphery of the large Canadian vortex. This is pushing a
weak cold front across our northern CWA which will settle over
the high plateaus and be a limited focus for light over-running
precipitation into our northeast CWA mountains overnight into
tomorrow. North of this boundary temperatures will continue to
be hampered and end up below normal. South across the sunnier
and drier part of the CWA we should warm up a few degrees above
normal. By Thursday night the influence of the northern vortex
will wane and the southern stream will move in to replace it.
Winds are likely to remain but this should help push warmer air
back into the CWA to end out the week. As this front continues
to lift out it will continue to be a focus for precipitation
over the central mountains into early Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 309 PM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Troughing will continue to dominate the central and eastern CONUS as
we end the work week while ridging builds over western Canada. This
will lead to persistent zonal flow aloft across eastern Utah and
western Colorado. The gradient will weaken slightly behind the
departing trough, though gusts of 20 to 30 mph will be common area-
wide on Friday afternoon. There is still indication that a weak,
embedded wave will brush west-central Colorado on Friday and
Saturday. This will bring periodic snow showers to the mountains
along the Divide. Totals will generally be light with anywhere from
a trace to half an inch or so expected in most ranges. Favored
slopes along the Divide could see 1 to 3 inches through the weekend.
For Sunday and Monday, the wave will exit to the east with a
transitory ridge of high pressure sliding overhead. A drying and
warming trend with ensue, though residual moisture along the Divide
may kick off some orographic afternoon showers. The jetstreak
rounding the base of a trough pushing across the Northern Rockies on
Monday will tighten the northwest gradient to bring gusts of 25 to
35 mph for much of the area. Not a clean pattern by any means so
expect some changes to the forecast over the coming days. Ridging
looks to continue for Tuesday but yet another trough elongating off
the West Coast will either hurt or help this going into the midweek
point.

Unseasonably warm temperatures will prevail through the long term
period with Sunday through at least Monday being the warmest days.
Highs that are 6 to 12 degrees above normal will be common before
those readings exceed 10 degrees above normal region-wide. The
breezy conditions will only aid in this warming so, even though
fuels have not yet been declared critical, caution should be used
with any planned fires in this warm, dry and breezy environment.
Overnight lows will also trend well above normal for mid April.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1133 AM MDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Moisture continues to stream in on moderately fast westerly flow
into northern portions of Utah and Colorado. This is leaving a
mid level cloud deck of 6-10kft agl at several TAF sites...and
possible some terrain obscuration and light precipitation over
the high mountains. Winds aloft will also continue to mix down
as temperatures warm in the next few hours so expect gusts of 25
to 45 mph to spread across the region as well. These winds
should decrease around sunset but moisture will continue to feed
moisture into the northern and central portions of the area over
the next few days. VFR should hold for prevailing conditions
however.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...MMS
AVIATION...TGJT