785
FNUS73 KGRR 011046
FWSGRR

Spot Forecast for Barren Plains 2&5...USFS
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
646 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (616) 949-5150, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Clouds and the few rain showers around the burn site will quickly
move out by this afternoon. Winds will become gusty this afternoon
with gusts of 30 to 35 mph expected. Dew points look to rise this
morning, then mix out and become quite dry quickly this afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Becoming Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight
                    chance of rain showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........58 at ignition...Max 70.
RH..................86 percent at ignition...Min 32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 10 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph shifting to the
                    west. Gusts 30 to 35 mph.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 4000 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Southwest 20 to 25 mph shifting to the west 30
                    to 35 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....150 /fair/ at ignition. Max...1200 /excellent/
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (EDT)      9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM   7 PM
Sky (%).........82     64     46     37     37     38
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............58     62     66     68     69     65
RH..............86     58     42     36     32     43
20 ft wind......S 12   SW 13  W 15   W 16   W 15   W 12
20 ft wind gust.20     24     28     32     33     20
Mix hgt (ft)....1000   2800   3500   4000   4000   3700
Mixing wind.....SW 17  SW 25  W 30   W 32   W 29   NW 25
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5
Smoke disprsl...150    700    1100   1200   1200   900

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent).
Temperature.........Min 43.
RH..................Max 90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 9 mph until midnight becoming
                    light, then becoming northeast around 5 mph
                    early in the morning.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northwest 12 to 20 mph decreasing to 7 to 10
                    mph after midnight, then shifting to the north
                    around 7 mph early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....400 (good) early in the evening decreasing to
                    100 (poor) late in the night.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Temperature.........Max 68.
RH..................Min 40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast 6 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3500 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northeast around 7 mph shifting to the east 7
                    to 8 mph through early afternoon, then shifting
                    to the southeast 12 to 17 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....100 (poor) early in the morning increasing to
                    500 (good) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Jeruzal
Requested by...Jeff Nieland
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412813.0/GRR
.DELDT 05/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Jeff.Nieland@usda.gov