751
FXHW60 PHFO 280200
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
400 PM HST Sat Apr 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A plume of moisture moving through will continue to produce
showers across the state through Sunday morning. A drier weather
pattern is expected by Sunday afternoon into early next week with
light to moderate east to east-southeast winds. Winds should be
light enough for sea breezes to develop during the day and land
breezes at night, especially early next week. Our typical trade
wind weather could return sometime during the second half of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon`s satellite and radar imagery shows quite a bit of
shower activity across the state, but rainfall rates have been on
the light side(less than 1 inch per hour rates) for the most
part. A few moderate showers can be seen across the slopes of the
Big Island. For tonight, passing showers will continue across the
state as this plume of moisture moves through.

For Sunday, we should see much drier conditions compared to today
as a drier air mass moves in from the east. A trough to the
northwest of the state will continue to keep winds light to
moderate and out of the east-southeast direction. Sea breezes
developing during the day time should lead to afternoon clouds
with some scattered showers over leeward areas. Due to the drier
air mass, any rainfall should remain light with the exception of
Kauai, where moderate afternoon showers will be possible due to
lingering moisture. But overall shower activity should be much
less than today across the state for Sunday.

For early next week, high pressure will be centered far northeast
of the state, while a trough lingers north of the state. We will
continue to see light winds across the western half of the state,
with light to moderate east to east-southeast flow over the
eastern half of the state. Due to limited moisture, we are not
expecting much rainfall early next week, but some light passing
showers should be expected over windward areas, as well as some
light showers over leeward areas during the afternoon with the sea
breezes developing each day.

For the second half of next week, guidance has come into better
agreement with most global models showing a weaker upper level
trough. At the surface, we should see our typical breezy trades
return by Thursday. With the weak upper level trough, there is
potential for some enhanced trade showers towards the end of the
week. Stay tuned for more details.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moist ESE flow is supporting a decent coverage of showers over
windward and mauka zones of Maui through Kauai. Showers have also
developed over Leeward Oahu. Shower intensity is somewhat
diminished compared to this morning, so expect generally VFR with
tempo MVFR within heavier showers. This pattern will continue into
tonight with little overall change expected. Drier air pushes into
the forecast area from the east on Sunday resulting in improving
conditions. Cloud cover short-circuited the sea breeze at PHNL
today but decreased cloud cover tomorrow yields greater confidence
in winds veering to ESE at the airport during peak heating.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for
Molokai through Kauai.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure far northeast of the state will drive breezy east
southeast winds tonight, while an approaching front lies far to
the northwest. Winds are forecast to weaken in the coming days as
the front approaches and the high shifts away to the east before
shifting back to breezier trades around midweek. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) for winds will remain in effect for most waters and
channels surrounding Big Island, Maui, and Molokai through
Sunday, but will likely end by Monday as winds weaken.

Surf heights will remain below advisory thresholds for all shores
through the forecast period. A small northwest, medium-period
swell is forecast to subside this evening with only minor swells
through next week. Breezy trade winds will produce choppy surf
along east facing shores today, but will decrease as winds taper
off in the coming days. Small, short-period southeast, and small
medium-period south swell will continue into next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maui County
Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island
Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Foster