Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
751 FXHW60 PHFO 280200 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 400 PM HST Sat Apr 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A plume of moisture moving through will continue to produce showers across the state through Sunday morning. A drier weather pattern is expected by Sunday afternoon into early next week with light to moderate east to east-southeast winds. Winds should be light enough for sea breezes to develop during the day and land breezes at night, especially early next week. Our typical trade wind weather could return sometime during the second half of next week. && .DISCUSSION... This afternoon`s satellite and radar imagery shows quite a bit of shower activity across the state, but rainfall rates have been on the light side(less than 1 inch per hour rates) for the most part. A few moderate showers can be seen across the slopes of the Big Island. For tonight, passing showers will continue across the state as this plume of moisture moves through. For Sunday, we should see much drier conditions compared to today as a drier air mass moves in from the east. A trough to the northwest of the state will continue to keep winds light to moderate and out of the east-southeast direction. Sea breezes developing during the day time should lead to afternoon clouds with some scattered showers over leeward areas. Due to the drier air mass, any rainfall should remain light with the exception of Kauai, where moderate afternoon showers will be possible due to lingering moisture. But overall shower activity should be much less than today across the state for Sunday. For early next week, high pressure will be centered far northeast of the state, while a trough lingers north of the state. We will continue to see light winds across the western half of the state, with light to moderate east to east-southeast flow over the eastern half of the state. Due to limited moisture, we are not expecting much rainfall early next week, but some light passing showers should be expected over windward areas, as well as some light showers over leeward areas during the afternoon with the sea breezes developing each day. For the second half of next week, guidance has come into better agreement with most global models showing a weaker upper level trough. At the surface, we should see our typical breezy trades return by Thursday. With the weak upper level trough, there is potential for some enhanced trade showers towards the end of the week. Stay tuned for more details. && .AVIATION... Moist ESE flow is supporting a decent coverage of showers over windward and mauka zones of Maui through Kauai. Showers have also developed over Leeward Oahu. Shower intensity is somewhat diminished compared to this morning, so expect generally VFR with tempo MVFR within heavier showers. This pattern will continue into tonight with little overall change expected. Drier air pushes into the forecast area from the east on Sunday resulting in improving conditions. Cloud cover short-circuited the sea breeze at PHNL today but decreased cloud cover tomorrow yields greater confidence in winds veering to ESE at the airport during peak heating. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for Molokai through Kauai. && .MARINE... High pressure far northeast of the state will drive breezy east southeast winds tonight, while an approaching front lies far to the northwest. Winds are forecast to weaken in the coming days as the front approaches and the high shifts away to the east before shifting back to breezier trades around midweek. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for winds will remain in effect for most waters and channels surrounding Big Island, Maui, and Molokai through Sunday, but will likely end by Monday as winds weaken. Surf heights will remain below advisory thresholds for all shores through the forecast period. A small northwest, medium-period swell is forecast to subside this evening with only minor swells through next week. Breezy trade winds will produce choppy surf along east facing shores today, but will decrease as winds taper off in the coming days. Small, short-period southeast, and small medium-period south swell will continue into next week. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kino AVIATION...JVC MARINE...Foster