113
FXUS64 KHUN 020630
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
130 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Another very warm/dry day will be on tap for the Tennessee Valley
later today, with high pressure remaining established just east of
the area. Ample sunshine and southerly flow will help to push
daytime temperatures into the mid to upper 80s in most locations
by the afternoon. Although not immediately likely, NBM ensembles
are painting about a 10% chance highs at MSL/HSV may exceed the 90
degree mark. Otherwise, late in the day mid/upper clouds will
begin to increase from west to east ahead of the weak cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday Night)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

The aforementioned ridge will begin to break down later tonight
into Friday morning as a cold front pushes into area. Southerly
flow ahead of the front will help to advect some Gulf moisture
back into the region and subsequently medium to high (50-80%)
chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will return to the
area from the mid/late morning through the evening, before
tapering off from west to east. Behind the front, we enter a more
zonal pattern that will maintain the warm air mass, but also
feature additional shortwaves that will trigger medium chances
(40-60%) additional showers and a few thunderstorms both Saturday
and Sunday. In between the showers/storms, breaks of sunshine and
southerly flow will keep highs in the low to mid 80s, with lows
bottoming out in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Warm and active weather will continue through the long term period. By
Sunday, another shortwave will track over the area, resulting in
medium chances (50-60%) for showers and storms especially during the
afternoon hours. This activity will likely linger through at least
the early part of Monday, especially given the warm sectored airmass
in place. Broad upper ridging and west/southwesterly flow aloft will
keep low chances for rain and thunder in the forecast through the
remainder of the long term forecast, primarily north of the TN River
where better synoptic forcing will be in place. H85 temps will rise
through the work week as strong southwesterly flow continues to
support a warming trend, with highs could reach the 90 degree mark by
on Wednesday. Overnight lows will warm each night too, beginning in
the mid 60s Sunday night rising to the lower 70s Tuesday and
Wednesday nights. Will definitely feel more like summer by the middle
of the week!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the period
with light winds out of the SE/SSE and a mostly clear sky. Late
in the period, cloud cover will gradually increase ahead of a
frontal boundary.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP
SHORT TERM...AMP
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...AMP