Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 020821
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
321 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FINE LINE ON RADAR IMAGERY SHOW THE
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH BARTON...ELLSWORTH...AND LINCOLN COUNTIES
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. STARTING TO SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL
IN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS AS UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY  APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AS THIS ENERGY CONTINUES LIFTS
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS FOR TODAY...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORMS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT EAST OF THE FLINT HILLS THIS AFTERNOON. ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. ANY LINGERING CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS MAY INHIBIT SURFACE
HEATING AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...HOWEVER WITH STRONG FORCING
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY ALREADY IN PLACE
EXPECT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS TO REDEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE FLINT
HILLS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
INITIALLY BE LARGE HAIL WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE RANGING FROM
2000-3000J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPROACHING 40-50KTS. STRAIGHT
LINE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN THREAT ONCE THE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL TO FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
STORMS CONGEAL INTO A SQUALL LINE. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL VACATE
SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING AND USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND.

A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS ON FRIDAY AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DROPS DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND COOLER AIR WILL
SETTLE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MID 30S ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AND UPPER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. AREAS OF PATCHY FROST MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. SATURDAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE A GORGEOUS FALL DAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AS NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS KANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE BECOMES CUTOFF OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AND TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM BACK UP
INTO THE 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

RITZMAN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. OTHERWISE AN AREA
OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS AND DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. CLEARING SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  47  64  37 /  50  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      68  46  64  36 /  50  10  10   0
NEWTON          70  46  63  36 /  50  10  10   0
ELDORADO        74  47  63  36 /  60  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  48  65  38 /  50  10   0   0
RUSSELL         65  43  61  35 /  50  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      65  44  62  36 /  60  10  10   0
SALINA          66  45  60  36 /  60  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       67  46  61  36 /  60  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     85  51  66  37 /  90  40   0   0
CHANUTE         82  50  63  35 /  90  40  10   0
IOLA            80  50  62  35 /  90  40  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    84  50  64  36 /  90  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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