Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KICT 230508
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1108 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 251 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

The main forecast challenge will be temperatures, with dry weather
persisting through the period.

Light south/southwest winds, mostly clear skies, and dry air should
yield low temperatures tonight near normals, around 30 to the middle
30s.

Shortwave energy over the northeastern Pacific is progged to move
eastward across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley
late Thursday into Friday. This will result in lee trough
development, southwesterly winds, and warming 1000-850 mb
thicknesses especially on Friday. Much above normal temperatures are
expected Thursday and Friday, with near record or record highs
likely Friday.

In association with the aforementioned shortwave energy to the
north, a Pacific cold front will push southward through the forecast
area Friday night. Some cooler air will result for Friday night into
Saturday, however, temperatures will remain above normal given the
Pacific airmass.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Medium range models were in reasonable agreement Sunday into Monday,
then divergences in the upper pattern progression/evolution occur
Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to increased forecast uncertainty.

Upper ridging over the Western States is progged to flatten, as it
spreads east across the Southern/Central Plains Sunday into Monday.
Resultant lee troughing and south-southwesterly winds will allow for
temperatures to climb much above normal by Monday, possibly to near
record warmth levels once again given progged 1000-850 thicknesses
and persistent dry conditions across the region. The ECMWF was
slower and deeper with an upper trough moving from the eastern
Pacific, across the central CONUS early-mid next week, and was a
deviation from its ensemble mean. The GEFS also showed increased
spread with the handling/timing of this upper trough. A blended
approach will bring some cooler, more seasonal air into the forecast
area by mid week, with dry weather persisting.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid
period. A weak surface trof will move across central Kansas
Thanksgiving morning with a brief wind shift, before a light south
to southwest wind establishes itself again in the late afternoon.
Generally clear except for scattered cirrus.

KED

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 252 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Record highs on Nov 23...
CNU80 in 1897
ICT 72 in 2005
RSL 72 in 2005
SLN 73 in 2005

Record highs on Nov 24...
CNU 74 in 1919
ICT 70 in 1915
RSL 75 in 1990
SLN 75 in 1990

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    33  68  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      35  68  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          34  67  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        32  66  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   32  67  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         36  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      37  71  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          36  68  47  74 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       35  68  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     31  63  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         30  62  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            30  62  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    30  62  41  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...KED
CLIMATE...JMC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.