Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 221738
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1138 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

PERIODS OF DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE MAINLY THIS
MORNING...AS MODEST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN THE SATURATED LOW
LAYERS PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE
WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...THUS ENDING THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND CLEARING OUT
SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS. MEANWHILE...THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS HEADING INTO
TUESDAY BUT EVOLVE AND DEEPEN WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS FORMING
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SECOND UPPER WAVE
INTERACTING WITH THE PARENT UPPER LOW CENTER. THIS LOOKS TO
GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILES BY THE MODELS
SUGGEST ALL SNOW AS THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE FOR CENTRAL KANSAS
WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOVER JUST ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK
FOR CENTRAL KANSAS...WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON
THE LIGHT SIDE HOWEVER IF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CAN COOL MORE THEN
EXPECTED THEN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD INCREASE. NONE THE LESS
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS WOULD BE A LOW END SNOW EVENT FOR
CENTRAL KANSAS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST OF KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

MILD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS ON
CHRISTMAS DAY...BUT MODELS SHOW A THIRD WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING
SHAPE OVER THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY THEN EJECTING OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING COLDER AIR
TO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND BUT SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO. JUST ABOUT ALL THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SHOW THIS NEXT SYSTEM REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES...WITH
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES STAYING WELL SOUTH OF KANSAS AT
THIS JUNCTURE.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE CLOUDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT WILL WORK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED ALONG/BEHIND FRONT.
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KHUT NEAR END OF FORECAST. VERY STRONG/
GUSTY WINDS/RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IT ITS WAKE. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    50  32  39  28 /  30  10  30  20
HUTCHINSON      50  31  36  27 /  30  10  40  20
NEWTON          49  31  37  28 /  40  10  40  20
ELDORADO        49  32  39  29 /  40  10  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   51  32  42  29 /  30  10  20  20
RUSSELL         51  29  34  24 /  10  10  50  10
GREAT BEND      51  29  35  25 /  10  10  30  10
SALINA          49  31  34  26 /  40  10  50  20
MCPHERSON       50  31  35  27 /  40  10  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     51  34  44  31 /  50  10  10  20
CHANUTE         49  33  42  30 /  60  10  10  20
IOLA            48  33  41  30 /  60  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    50  33  42  30 /  50  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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