Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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416
FXUS63 KICT 140013
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING TROUGH...
MODERATE 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL FOCUS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND MOISTENING IS PROGGED ON THE
280-295K SURFACES IN THAT AREA OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IF SATURATION
CAN OCCUR FROM THE SURFACE TO 800 MB...SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
RIGHT NEAR THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK DURING THE TIME PERIOD AND
AREA OF CONCERN. WITH THE MOISTURE SHALLOW AND A COMPLETE LACK OF
CLOUD ICE PRESENT...ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS. STILL SOME
CONCERN THAT THE LOWEST 2,000 FT ABOVE GROUND MAY NOT SATURATE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THEREFORE NO
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. SLICK SPOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IF THE LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
MATERIALIZES. AREAS OF FOG/FREEZING FOG MAY FORM OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS RIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WHERE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY
BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE....HOWEVER IT MAY END UP BEING JUST STRATUS
OFF THE DECK.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH...DRY AND MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DECENT INSOLATION. A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL AMPLIFY THE UPPER TROF OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR ON
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THIS TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND
1000-850 PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE GOING FORECAST OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS WILL PUSH EASTWARD MID-LATE WEEK...LEAVING A FLOW PATTERN MORE
WESTERLY OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
THURSDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY. DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNALS FOR
PRECIPITATION...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT DRY AND MILD
FORECAST.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE LOWERING CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS THIS FEATURE TRACKS
SOUTHEAST...ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION WILL QUICKLY INCREASE
ACROSS EASTERN KS AND MOST OF MISSOURI. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AND LIKELY CLOSER TO 09Z FOR
AREAS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. TO GET THE
BALL ROLLING WILL RUN WITH CIGS IN THE 1,000-2,000FT LEVEL WITH
KCNU SEEING THESE CEILINGS THE LONGEST. CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER
WITH REGARDS TO PRECIP. WHILE THE LIFT IS GOOD...IT WILL HAVE TO
BATTLE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WITH DEWPOINTS OVER SE KS STILL IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY BECAUSE WITH TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING EXPECTED...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH PRECIP TO CAUSE
ISSUES.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY LOW TO
MODERATE THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE
NEXT WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR AND GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
ELEVATING THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER...WITH THURSDAY LOOKING TO BE
THE GREATEST DAY OF CONCERN.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    31  55  33  61 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      29  55  32  61 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          29  53  33  59 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        30  54  33  60 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   33  56  34  63 /  20  10  10  10
RUSSELL         27  54  31  59 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      28  54  31  60 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          27  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       28  54  32  59 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     33  54  33  62 /  20  30  10  10
CHANUTE         29  53  32  59 /  20  30  10  10
IOLA            28  52  31  58 /  20  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    31  53  33  60 /  20  30  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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