Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 211137
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

THE HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND CONTINUE ON TUESDAY
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES PUSHING ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK FOR
ALL LOCATIONS. HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTER WILL RETROGRADE A BIT FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A COUPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES SYNC UP AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL
PUSH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA BY WEDNESDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR WEDNESDAY. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. SHEAR IS ON
THE WEAKER SIDE BUT DECENT INSTABILITY STILL SUPPORTS SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY BUT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MIGRATE BACK NORTH FOR FRIDAY...WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS ON SATURDAY WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHERN KANSAS. WE COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

PESKY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
KHUT/KICT THIS MORNING WITH SOME SCT005-007 STRATUS LURKING ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. EXPECT THIS TO BE SHORT LIVED WITH GOOD
HEATING/MIXING. SOME CUMULUS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING...MAINLY FOR
KICT-KCNU WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE HIGHER. SMALL CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT AT KRSL...BUT TIMING/PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    97  74  99  75 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      99  74 101  74 /   0  10  10  20
NEWTON          97  74 100  73 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        96  73  99  73 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  73  98  75 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL        102  75 103  73 /  10  20  10  20
GREAT BEND     101  74 102  73 /   0  20  10  20
SALINA         103  76 104  75 /  10  10  10  40
MCPHERSON      100  74 103  75 /   0  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     93  72  97  74 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         94  73  98  73 /   0  10  10  30
IOLA            94  73  99  74 /   0  10  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    93  72  97  73 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-068>072-094>096-099-100.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ032-033-047>053.

&&

$$







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