Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 062115
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
315 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 312 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

An upstream shortwave trough was digging into the Great Basin from
the Pacific Northwest this afternoon. This area of channel vorticity
will move quickly eastward across the Central Plains late tonight
into Wednesday, supported by a strong upper level jet stream. This
shortwave will have two main impacts: It will bring a chance of
measurable snow to much of the forecast area Wednesday, while also
dislodging the main chunk of polar air from the Canadian
Intermountain region and Northern High Plains- southward into Kansas
from Wednesday into Friday. This will feature the coldest air of the
season thus far for the forecast area.

The approaching energy will result in an increase in cloud cover
tonight. Strong 700-650 mb layer frontogenetical forcing will allow
for an area of accumulating snow to develop over northwest Kansas
later this evening, with the snow area expanding eastward across
northern Kansas overnight. The mid-level frontogenesis zone will
then shift southward across central/eastern Kansas during Wednesday,
exiting the far southern counties by early Wednesday evening. The
strongest overall forcing and most favorable snow sounding profiles
favor 1-2 inches in central Kansas through east-central Kansas.
Further south, expecting a trace to around 1/2 inch in south-central
Kansas into the far southeast counties, where the duration of
snowfall should be more limited with the progressive nature of the
mid-level front.

Clearing skies are expected behind the departing wave Wednesday
night into Thursday, as the polar surface high builds into the
region with much colder than normal air. Low temperatures in the
single digits and teens are slated both Wednesday night and Thursday
night, with Thursday night being the coldest of the two. Wind chills
of zero to 5 below are forecast in central Kansas late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

The polar surface high is progged to shift east of the region Friday
night into Saturday with moderating temperatures. A progressive
shortwave trough will sweep eastward across the Central Plains
Saturday night into Sunday, which may result in chances for light
snow/rain across northern/eastern portions of Kansas, however little
in the way of impacts are expected at this time. Cooler air may
infiltrate the region Sunday, before temperatures moderate again
Monday. The ECMWF and GEFS indicate another polar front sliding
southward through the Central Plains Tuesday into Wednesday, but
differ as to whether this airmass will be shallow or deep. Currently
projecting near normal highs Tuesday, however temperatures may fall
sharply during the day if these models are correct.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1158 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

There are no concerns until Wed Mrng, when a weak sfc cyclone that
will be centered over SE NM will team with a strong, semi-inverted
sfc that`ll knife its way SE from the MT/WY border to MO to induce
-SN to dvlp acrs Wrn Nebraska & NW-Nrn KS. The -SN shud spread E
into Cntrl KS ~15Z at which time cigs & vsbys at KRSL & KGBD wl
quickly deteriorate as E-NE lwr-deck flow incrs. The issuances fm
07/00Z onward wl provide details on these deteriorating trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    25  34  16  29 /  10  50  10   0
Hutchinson      23  31  14  27 /  10  50  10   0
Newton          24  31  13  26 /  10  50  10   0
ElDorado        25  34  15  27 /  10  50  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   27  35  17  30 /   0  40  10   0
Russell         21  27  10  25 /  40  70   0   0
Great Bend      22  29  10  26 /  20  70   0   0
Salina          23  29  11  26 /  20  70   0   0
McPherson       23  29  12  26 /  10  70  10   0
Coffeyville     27  37  18  31 /   0  50  20   0
Chanute         26  35  17  29 /   0  60  20   0
Iola            26  33  16  27 /   0  60  20   0
Parsons-KPPF    28  37  18  30 /   0  60  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...EPS


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