Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 191239
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
639 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 319 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Fairly active weather pattern the next several days, with a
handful of weather disturbances traversing Mid- America.

Moist south/southeast low-level flow will support a rather
cloudy...and at times drizzly/foggy 24-36 hours across the region.
Thinking the best potential for dense fog this morning will be
generally west of I-135, and also along/east of the Flint Hills.
Will monitor trends for possible dense fog advisory issuance.
Additionally, may see a few rain showers late this morning through
the afternoon across the area, as an upper PV anomaly approaches
from the southwest. Fog potential will increase areawide again
tonight, as diurnal cooling couples with moist upslope flow, with
drizzle chances shifting into mainly central Kansas.

Another moisture-starved storm system will move northeast across
the region Friday, supporting chances for a few showers across
central Kansas.

A third quick-hitting more substantial storm system will move
across the Southern Plains Saturday night and Sunday morning,
spreading meaningful precipitation chances across far southern
Kansas and Oklahoma. Models have been trending further south with
this system, so thinking most activity will be confined to
Kansas/Oklahoma border counties on south. Other than the potential
for a brief mix of rain/snow over southwest Kansas, mostly rain is
expected due to warmer thermal profiles.

Temperature-wise, above normal readings are expected. The warmest
days should be Fri and Sat, with low-level thickness values
supporting possible 60s over southern and southeast KS.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 319 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

A fourth storm system is expected to impact Mid-America Mon night
through early Wed. While there still remain some uncertainty
regarding exact magnitude and track of the system, overall model
and GFS ensemble consensus suggests that highest probability track
is north of the forecast area, keeping the highest precipitation
chances over northern Kansas and especially Nebraska.

Temperature-wise, above normal temperatures should continue
Sunday-Tuesday, although probably not as warm as Fri-Sat. Sunday
looks rather breezy in wake of the departing storm system. Tues
has potential to warm up significantly over mainly
southern/southeast KS, but for now will only go with daytime highs
in the 50s. High confidence in a return to near to below normal
temperatures Wed and beyond, as a broad longwave trough carves out
across Mid-America. Not expecting a major Arctic outbreak though.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 638 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

IFR/LIFR conditions will continue across the area today and again
tonight, as an upper level system slowly moves across KS. Lots of
low level moisture underneath this upper low will lead to IFR cigs
for most of the area this morning, with lots of MVFR vsbys. The
lowest vsbys will be over SE KS where some patchy 1/2sm dense Fg
will be possible near KCNU. Most other locations can expect 1-3sm DZ
and BR. With all this moisture around plan on taking the pessimistic
route and keep the low clouds around all day. Could see some
improvement to MVFR cigs for most locations this afternoon, but
stratus build down will occur again this evening, with IFR/LIFR cigs
again possible.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  41  58  35 /  20  10  10   0
Hutchinson      50  38  55  34 /  20  10  10  10
Newton          51  41  56  35 /  20  20  10   0
ElDorado        52  42  58  36 /  20  20  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   55  41  61  35 /  20  10   0   0
Russell         47  36  49  31 /  20  10  20  20
Great Bend      47  36  49  32 /  20  10  20  10
Salina          49  40  53  35 /  20  20  20  10
McPherson       50  39  54  34 /  20  20  10  10
Coffeyville     56  45  65  40 /  10  20  10   0
Chanute         54  44  62  38 /  10  20  10   0
Iola            53  44  61  39 /  10  20  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    56  45  63  39 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...BDK



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