Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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129
FXUS63 KICT 201803
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
103 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO LOWER HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES

CLOUDS LOOK TO BE HOLDING STRONG TODAY WITH ONLY A FEW BREAKS
SHOWING UP WEST OF I-135. DROPPED HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES BUT
HESITANT TO GO TOO FAR AS ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUN WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO QUICKLY RISE.

LAWSON

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DIMINISHING PRECIP TRENDS THIS
MORNING AND THEN THEIR RE-ENTRY INTO THE AREA AGAIN BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A FASTER EASTWARD EXIT LATER THIS MORNING INTO MIDDAY.
SOME RESIDUAL PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE
OF THE TRAILING MEASURABLE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...ANOTHER RATHER BRIEF BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN WILL
COMMENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
ANOTHER UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE INLAND
WITH A MEAN UPPER TROF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE SOUTHWEST DESERT DURING FRIDAY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS KANSAS ON FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WEAK TO
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE PRECIP AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS GREAT...THE GOING POP FORECAST SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH LIKELY POPS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMO OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE CONTINUES TO SHOW A MEAN UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH
COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WEAKER SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM THE
TROF AND RIPPLING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND A MORE SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF MAY
BE KICKED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS...THOUGH DETAILS REMAIN
A BIT UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT. NONETHELESS...A MOIST SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KANSAS THRU THE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. SOME RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT...THOUGH DETAILS WILL BE TIED TO FOCUS
AND FORCING MECHANISMS WHICH ARE HARD TO PIN DOWN AT THIS POINT.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING POP FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES MODERATING CLOSER TO SEASONAL CLIMO.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
ALONG WITH FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH THE COLD FRONT NOW SITUATED DOWN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING STRONG ALL DAY AND HAVE CLIMBED TO ABOVE IFR
LEVELS AT ALL SITES. BY 21Z MOST SITES SHOULD BE ABOVE MVFR
LEVELS. SOME RADIATIONAL FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH SLIDES DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. STARTED THINGS OFF
GOING 4-5SM AROUND 09Z WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW DENSE IT WILL
GET. MOST OF THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  46  66  50 /  10  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      57  43  65  48 /  10  10  10  30
NEWTON          56  43  64  48 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        58  44  65  49 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  45  66  51 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELL         54  41  64  47 /   0   0  10  50
GREAT BEND      55  42  64  48 /  10  10  10  60
SALINA          55  42  66  48 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       57  42  65  48 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     63  46  66  50 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  44  65  49 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            58  44  65  49 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    61  45  66  49 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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