Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44
000
FXUS63 KICT 230430
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1130 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH- BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING OVER CENTRAL KS...AS 700-600MB
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 500 J/KG...SO
NOTHING MORE THAN SMALL HAIL EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
OTHERWISE...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLOGENESIS. GIVEN PROGGED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES...WILL HOIST WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST AREAS
NORTHWEST OF KS TURNPIKE...ALONG WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
CENTRAL KS (REFER TO "FIRE WEATHER" SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER
DETAILS). NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXPAND BOTH OF THESE HEADLINES A
BIT FURTHER SOUTHEAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. WITH COLD FRONT/DRYLINE REMAINING
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 7PM OVER GENERALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF KS.
FAVORABLE SHEAR/INSTABILITY COMBO WILL FAVOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELL
/MULTI-CELL STORMS EARLY ON OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
KS/OK...CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS. DESPITE
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED DUE
TO HIGH-BASED NATURE OF STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY
CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WELL
AFTER DARK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES
DRYLINE...WITH A THREAT FOR CONTINUED MARGINAL TO LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD TEND
TO WANE AS NIGHT PROGRESSES. FOR THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED OVER
EASTERN KS...AS MODELS ARE SLOWING THIS SYSTEM DOWN A BIT.
TRANQUIL AND WARM WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY BREEZY
THURSDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL WEEKEND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...AS A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WHILE THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS AND
ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES STRONGLY SUPPORT THIS UPPER
PATTERN...DIFFERENCES SURROUNDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ALL THE
REQUIRED FEATURES REMAIN...WHICH IS TO BE EXPECTED SINCE THE
SYSTEM IN QUESTION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS OF
ALASKA. GEM AND ECMWF CONSENSUS IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS
SOLUTION...WITH THE GFS CURRENTLY FAVORING A MORE HIGH-END
OUTBREAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...WILL ATTEMPT TO NOT GET BOGGED DOWN IN SPECIFICS
THIS FAR OUT...BUT WILL STATE THAT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HIGH-END
OUTBREAK SATURDAY-SUNDAY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING FOR LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY
DURING THE DAY. MEANWHILE A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN KANSAS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MARCH EASTWARD
AND AFFECT CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG SOUTH WINDS...THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON FOR GRASSES THAT ARE AT LEAST 90-95
PERCENT CURED. CONSEQUENTLY...WILL HOIST A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
RENO-MCPHERSON- SALINE COUNTIES ON NORTHWEST. NIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED
TO BE EXPANDED ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES FURTHER SOUTH/EAST.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT-EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH FULL SUN...WARM TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS EXPECTED BY THU AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY SEND THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INTO THE "VERY HIGH" CATEGORY...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
THAT CAN DRY OUT FROM OVERNIGHT RAIN.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  82  53  75 /   0  10  70  20
HUTCHINSON      54  82  53  74 /  10  10  70  10
NEWTON          53  80  52  73 /  10  10  80  20
ELDORADO        53  81  53  74 /   0  10  80  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   53  83  55  76 /   0  10  60  30
RUSSELL         55  83  49  72 /  30  40  90  10
GREAT BEND      55  83  49  72 /  20  30  90  10
SALINA          53  82  51  75 /  30  30  80  10
MCPHERSON       54  82  52  74 /  20  20  80  10
COFFEYVILLE     48  81  60  75 /   0   0  50  60
CHANUTE         48  80  60  74 /   0   0  60  60
IOLA            48  79  60  73 /   0   0  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    48  80  60  75 /   0   0  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067.

&&

$$







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.