Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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442
FXUS63 KICT 180255
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
855 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 156 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Main weather impacts are strong post-frontal winds late tonight into
Saturday and chances for showers/light QPF. A vigorous western CONUS
upper trof will move east across the northern/central Plains late
tonight thru midday Saturday, before departing into the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley by Saturday evening. Near record warmth ahead of the
associated cold front this afternoon will be replaced by more
seasonably cool air on Saturday. A strong pressure gradient in the
wake of the front late tonight is expected to result in advisory
level north-northwest winds across central Kansas. Steepening low
level lapse rates in the cold advection regime will support
transport of higher momentum air to the surface during much of
the daylight hours of Saturday even as the pressure gradient
begins to relax by the afternoon. Expect to also see some widely
scattered post-frontal showers early Saturday morning over central
and eastern Kansas, associated with the strong mid-level cold
advection just prior to the passage of the upper trof. This will
be followed by subsidence and clearing as the upper trof departs
in the afternoon. A sunny and seasonably cool day is expected on
Sunday with a return of a modest southwest wind. A weak upper trof
will migrate across the area on Monday with the continued south to
southwest low level flow maintaining seasonably mild air across
central and southeast Kansas.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 156 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

There is still general support for the development of a higher
amplitude upper flow regime by the middle of next week with an
eastern CONUS trof and western CONUS ridge. This will support
another intrusion of modestly cooler air south into the Plains
and Midwest. This ridge will try and build a bit further east
across the front range and high Plains by Thanksgiving. Overall,
precip chances look close to nil across Kansas with temperatures
averaging close to climo.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 538 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

A cold front will slide southward across the region tonight with
north winds increasing remarkably late tonight behind the front.
In addition low clouds generally in the MVFR range will develop
behind the front and quickly move across the area. North winds
will remain strong and gusty through much of the day on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 156 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

Strong north to northwest winds behind a cold front late tonight
will elevate the grassland fire danger across central Kansas. The
strong north to northwest winds will develop across the entire
area on Saturday with lowering humidity levels, resulting in very
high grassland fire danger. It will remain dry and seasonably cool
Sunday into Monday. While winds will not be as strong, the lower
daytime humidity levels may result in several hours of very high
fire danger during the early afternoon hours.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    44  54  29  56 /  10  10   0   0
Hutchinson      42  53  28  57 /  10  10   0   0
Newton          42  53  28  56 /  20  20   0   0
ElDorado        44  54  29  55 /  10  20   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   46  55  30  56 /  10  10   0   0
Russell         39  51  25  59 /  30  10   0   0
Great Bend      40  52  25  59 /  20  10   0   0
Salina          42  53  27  58 /  30  20   0   0
McPherson       41  53  26  57 /  20  20   0   0
Coffeyville     50  57  31  56 /  10  20   0   0
Chanute         47  55  30  55 /  20  20   0   0
Iola            46  54  30  54 /  20  30   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    49  56  30  56 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM CST Saturday for KSZ070>072-
094>096-098>100.

Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 4 PM CST Saturday for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...KED



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