Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 172345
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
645 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Subtle mid/upper impulses embedded within moist southwesterly
flow aloft, coupled with an old frontal zone stalled across the
region will continue to support clusters of showers/thunderstorms
streaming northeast across Oklahoma and far southern/southeast
Kansas through the afternoon and into the early evening. Modest
instability coupled with 30-40 kts of effective deep layer shear
could support a few rowdy storms over southern/southeast KS, but
widespread severe weather is not expected. Brunt of activity
should remain across Oklahoma.

Should see a relative lull in activity the first half of the
night in wake of first weak upper impulse. Shower/thunderstorm
activity is then expected to increase in coverage from the west
generally after midnight, as an elongated upper wave currently
over the Central Rockies approaches from the west, inducing deep
isentropic ascent and moisture transport across the Central
Plains. While widespread severe weather is not expected, magnitude
of low-level jet along with approaching upper trough could
support a handful of strong to marginally severe storms, along
with pockets of very heavy rain. Thinking this activity will
linger across much of eastern Kansas Monday morning. Things should
gradually dry out and warm up by Monday afternoon, especially
along/west of I-135. Cannot rule out a few thunderstorms over
eastern Kansas Monday night into early Tuesday along eastern
fringe of advancing EML, but not expecting widespread activity
given likely subsidence in wake of Monday`s upper wave.

Hot, windy and dry conditions are expected Tuesday, as a powerful
Northern Rockies shortwave induces deep low pressure across the
High Plains. Low-level thicknesses support highs well into the
90s, especially west of Flint Hills. Furthermore, strong and gusty
south winds should fuel elevated fire danger, especially
along/west of I- 135 corridor. A cold front is expected to move
into the forecast area Tuesday night and Wednesday, but minimal
upper forcing/mid- level cooling will likely support relatively
low/isolated storm chances. The front should return rapidly back
northwest Wed night as another powerful trough digs across the
western CONUS.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Operational model and ensemble consensus still strongly supports
a deep, slow moving western CONUS longwave trough taking shape
from late week through early next week. This will support overall
a continuation of above normal temperatures and breezy south
winds. Additionally, a slow moving strong frontal zone is expected
to orient southwest to northeast across Mid- America associated
with the deep western CONUS trough. This should support a gradual
increase in shower/thunderstorm chances across the Kansas region
from Friday through early next week. Still quite a bit of
uncertainty regarding exact timing of the frontal zone, so stay
tuned. If current model consensus verifies, will probably be
looking at a few rounds of strong/severe storms along with the
potential for widespread heavy rain and flooding given the slow-
moving and prolonged nature of the upper trough and frontal zone.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Stratus will shroud all areas throughout the night with cigs in
most areas between 1,000 & 2,000ft this eve. There are indications
that cigs across Central & South-Central KS will lower into IFR
status & perhaps even LIFR early Mon morning as lower-deck warm/
moist advection increases. This would also increase the chances of
TSRA developing & as such have assigned "VCTS" to all terminals
from ~06-14Z. Cigs should begin to lift into MVFR category ~15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    66  88  69  94 /  50  50  20  10
Hutchinson      63  87  68  94 /  60  60  20  10
Newton          63  86  68  93 /  60  60  20  10
ElDorado        65  84  68  91 /  50  50  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   67  87  69  93 /  50  40  20  10
Russell         60  85  65  96 /  60  50  10   0
Great Bend      61  87  65  95 /  60  40  10   0
Salina          63  86  67  95 /  60  60  20  10
McPherson       63  86  68  94 /  60  60  20  10
Coffeyville     67  85  69  90 /  50  40  20  20
Chanute         66  82  68  88 /  50  50  20  20
Iola            66  81  67  88 /  50  50  20  20
Parsons-KPPF    66  83  68  89 /  50  50  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...EPS



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