Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 301537
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1037 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL KS...INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS...NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NE.
THEY ARE BEING SUSTAINED BY MODEST/STRONG 800-600MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN A ZONE OF RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GIVING A GLANCING BLOW AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY TO PERHAPS MID-AFTERNOON AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...IN A ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
LACK UP UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD
OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 310-315K LAYER
PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES TODAY
AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK
OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN
KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND
WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER
TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY
AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ONCE
AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION.
THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO HELP
BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP
GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR FRIDAY
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS NEAR THE KRSL/KHUT AND KSLN TAF
SITES. SO WILL GO WITH A PREVAILING SHRA AND VCTS FOR THE MORNING
HOURS IN CENTRAL KS.

THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN FOR THE MORNING HOURS WILL SOME PATCHY FOG
NEAR THE KCNU TAF...WHICH MAY DROP VSBYS TO MVFR FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS.

AFTER THE MORNING SHOWERS...A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL REMAIN OVER
MOST OF CENTRAL KS TODAY BUT CIGS WILL REMAINS VFR.

EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING...AS STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS WRN KS ALONG A
DRYLINE. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO ALL BUT THE KCNU TAF SITES
THIS EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING TO JUST SHOWERS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR KICT/KHUT/KSLN AND KRSL TAFS FOR
THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  65  86  64 /  20  50  40  50
HUTCHINSON      83  64  85  61 /  50  50  40  50
NEWTON          83  65  82  62 /  30  60  50  50
ELDORADO        84  65  84  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  85  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         80  59  79  55 /  60  40  40  50
GREAT BEND      81  60  81  56 /  60  40  40  40
SALINA          81  63  81  60 /  60  50  50  60
MCPHERSON       82  64  82  61 /  50  50  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     86  63  83  67 /  10  20  50  60
CHANUTE         85  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            85  63  82  66 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    86  63  83  66 /  10  20  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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