Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221930
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
230 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Strong ridging, sunny skies and brisk southerly winds ahead of the
next cold front will keep the above normal temperatures in the
region. Confidence remains high for this potential through
Saturday. Currently the Gulf of Mexico is closed off with easterly
flow along the Gulf Coast. This will help bring the above normal
temperatures in the region as the mid and upper levels will remain
dry. By Sunday, the winds along the Gulf Coast will shift around
to the south and southwest opening up the Gulf of Mexico and will
allow the return flow to establish itself just ahead of the
incoming frontal system. This increased in moisture and
instability will allow the a chance for some scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the region Sunday.

By Monday, the return flow will have been established for at least
12 hours which will increase the moisture transport into the
region. This front will be very slow moving so the main thrust of
rain will develop in Western and Central Kansas and slowly march
to the east. This slow moving frontal system will keep the
moisture transport and forcing in the region for an extended
period of time allowing for several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms. While the chances for thunderstorms will be high
during this time, instability and shear look rather weak so this
thunderstorm activity is not expected to severe at this time.
During this slow transit time, the Corfidi vectors indicate a good
chance for some heavy rain for a sustained period of time Monday
night into Tuesday. Some areas are likely to pick up some
significant rain during this time. Frontal passage is expected to
occur some time Tuesday morning. Once the front passes, the rain
chances will slowly drop off and the heavy rain threat will end.
Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible behind
the front but the rainfall amounts are not expected to be
significant.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

Wednesday, the cold front will be slowly moving out the region
which will keep the showers and thunderstorms along the Oklahoma
state line and in Southeast Kansas. There is the potential for
some heavy rain with this activity but the rain threat will
diminish rapidly during the day Wednesday. Much cooler air will
be moving into the region as a cool Canadian high pressure system
will slowly build into the area. Most long range models are in
agreement with temperatures below normal for the remainder of the
week however, the long range models do not really agree on the
how much drying will occur. The ECMWF looks be a little drier
while the GFS family is a little more humid. This difference could
cause min temperatures late next week to be a few degrees cooler
than currently forecast should the ECMWF win out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Gusty winds are expected again this afternoon, which will likely
linger well into the night. Diurnal cumulus likely with deeper
moisture/higher surface dew points. Outside chance of some
elevated showers or thunderstorms around daybreak in the vicinity
of KICT/KHUT, but low probability precludes mentioning vcsh at
this time. -Howerton


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    93  71  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      95  71  90  68 /   0   0  10   0
Newton          93  71  90  68 /   0   0  10   0
ElDorado        92  71  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   92  71  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         97  72  89  69 /   0  10  20  20
Great Bend      95  71  89  68 /   0   0  10  10
Salina          96  73  92  70 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       95  71  90  68 /   0   0  10   0
Coffeyville     90  70  91  68 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         89  70  90  67 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            89  69  89  66 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    89  70  90  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...PJH



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