Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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261
FXUS63 KICT 220526
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1126 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 610 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

Most of the latest short term guidance suggests perhaps a little
better chance for southern Kansas to be impacted on the north
edge of the upper low which will track east across the southern
Plains overnight. Some mid-level convergence develops toward
midnight across south central Kansas which may give a bit better
support for some light rain or rain showers overnight as the zone
of deformation north of the upper low moves east across the area.
So have tweaked PoP trends this evening and overnight across the
forecast area, especially southern Kansas.

KED

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

A shortwave trough moving over the Southern Rockies this afternoon
is progged to race eastward across the Southern Plains tonight while
moving over the Lower Mississippi Valley area on Sunday.

Light rain is expected to develop downstream across mainly Northern
Oklahoma working into portions of Southern KS this evening and
tonight within the deformation zone. Low pops will linger into early
Sunday over Southeast KS before large-scale forcing for subsidence
arrives across the area in the wake of the trough bringing a rapid
demise to any lingering light rain showers.

A mid/upper ridge is progged to build over the central Conus early
in the week supporting above normal temperatures across the area.
Another vigorous shortwave trough will emerge from the Rockies on
Tuesday bringing some potential for a wintry mix of rain and snow to
portions of Central KS late Tue into Tue night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 227 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

A mean long wave trough is progged to reside over much of the
central and eastern Conus through the period with seasonably cool
temperatures and dry weather conditions anticipated. Expect highs
in the low 40s with lows falling into the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

An upper low will continue to move east across the southern
Plains overnight with light rain and rain showers within the
upper deformation zone north of the low affecting the southern
Kansas terminals. While deterioration in cigs into the MVFR
category with perhaps a period of MVFR vsbys with rain and fog
is still expected overnight, kept cigs AOA 2K FT except for a
brief period at KCNU. Surface winds will increase from the north
late tonight into midday Sunday as the surface gradient tightens
as low pressure deepens to our southeast. Clearing with VFR
conditions are expected for most of the daylight hours of Sunday
with mainly clear skies Sunday evening.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    39  53  29  54 /  80   0   0   0
Hutchinson      35  52  28  53 /  60   0   0   0
Newton          37  50  29  52 /  60   0   0   0
ElDorado        41  51  29  53 /  70  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   43  53  30  54 /  80  30   0   0
Russell         31  51  25  53 /  10   0   0   0
Great Bend      32  51  26  53 /  20   0   0   0
Salina          31  52  26  53 /  20   0   0   0
McPherson       34  51  27  53 /  40   0   0   0
Coffeyville     45  54  30  52 /  80  60   0   0
Chanute         44  51  29  51 /  70  40   0   0
Iola            43  50  29  50 /  60  30   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    45  52  29  52 /  80  50   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KED
SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...KED



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