Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 291724
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT:
ANTICIPATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO WORK
SLOWLY EAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH A DECREASE
LATE THIS MORNING AND A SLIGHT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY...WITH CLOUDS MOST LIKELY
LIMITING WARMUP IN SOUTHEAST KS...AND SOME RAIN TO EVAPORATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST.

SAT-SUN:
LINGERING PRECIPITATION AND WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY KEEP
ISOLATED/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION GOING IN FAR SOUTHEAST KS ON
SAT...AIDED BY HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT THE REST OF
THE AREA APPEARS DRY THROUGH SAT EVENING. INCREASE IN 700MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND RETURN MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRAL KS STARTING IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUN IN CENTRAL KS AND
PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN FLINT HILLS DURING THE MORNING. BY LATE
SUN AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT...EXPECT DECENT CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS EITHER MOVING INTO OR DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST
SECTION OF FORECAST AREA. WHILE SHEAR/INSTABILITY IN ON THE LOW
SIDE OF OPTIMAL...SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE STORMS/SUPERCELLS. WILL HIT THIS A BIT HARDER IN HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK GIVEN HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WOULD ANTICIPATE MCS TO
ROLL ACROSS MUCH OF FORECAST AREA SUN NIGHT. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

APPEARS THAT SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTH ON THU
ASSUMING LATEST ECMWF/GFS RUNS ARE CORRECT. IF SO...THIS BECOMES
VERY PROBLEMATIC FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IT
WOULD ALSO BRING POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL
ALONG/NORTH OF FRONT. GIVEN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS TRACK RECORD OF
LATE...WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING THROUGH WED WITH TEMPERATURES
SHADED JUST A BIT COOLER IN THE NORTH AND WARMER IN THE SOUTH.
-HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AS WEAK WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF I-135. FOR NOW INCLUDED VCSH AT ICT-CNU
AFTER 20Z. OTHERWISE...THREAT SHOULD EXIT ICT BY 00Z...AND CNU BY
06Z.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    88  67  91  70 /  20  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      88  64  91  70 /  20  20  10  20
NEWTON          86  66  90  70 /  20  20  10  10
ELDORADO        87  66  90  69 /  30  30  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  67  91  70 /  30  30  10  10
RUSSELL         87  64  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
GREAT BEND      87  63  90  70 /  10  10  10  20
SALINA          89  65  91  71 /  40  20  10  20
MCPHERSON       88  64  91  70 /  20  20  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     86  69  91  70 /  60  40  20  20
CHANUTE         85  67  90  69 /  60  40  20  20
IOLA            85  67  89  69 /  60  40  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    86  68  90  70 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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