Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 161941
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
215 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Brief cool down Sunday and Monday, then rising temperatures.

- Shower and storm chances trending lower for Wednesday night
  through Thursday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A cold front moving southward across the area this afternoon and
evening will usher in cooler air tonight through Monday. An increase
in mid-clouds across the southern Kansas will have little impact on
lows with low level CAA underway in the wake of the front. Highs
will be closer to climate normals for mid-March or even a bit below
climo on Sunday and Monday before a warming trend returns. Highs
will top out in the 50s for most areas Sun-Mon after a chilly start
Sunday night/Monday morning when a hard freeze occurs over much if
not all of the area as sfc high pressure settles over the area early
in the period. Winds on Monday will diminish as this area of high
pressure translates over the area making it feel a bit warmer with
abundant insolation and highs mostly in the 50s.

Low level southwesterly flow will return on Tuesday with rising
heights/increasing thickness allowing above normal temperatures to
return to the area on Tuesday. The stationary/slow moving shortwave
trough over the Southwest is progged to shear eastward bringing a
chance of showers and storms to the area late Wed into Thu but there
remains uncertainty in the exact track of this system with the
latest deterministic GFS tracking this system further south which
would limit precipitation chances. Low pops were maintained for now
but confidence in widespread wetting rains remains fairly low at
this time. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist Wed-Thu
with highs in the 60s and 70s. Uncertainty grows towards the end of
the week where we could see another push of colder air but
confidence remains low with seasonably mild temperatures likely
persisting through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Northerly
winds will persist tonight as colder air filters southward
across the area. Some increase in mid clouds is anticipated
with bases in the 7k to 9k ft range impacting southern KS late
this evening through the predawn hours on Sunday. Breezy
northerly winds will continue through the day on Sunday while
VFR prevails across the area.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM


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