Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250942
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
342 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 339 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

A surface ridge over the area will keep slightly cooler than
average temperatures in place Today into Tonight with
light/variable winds, before shifting east of the region on
Sunday.

An upper trough over the Pacific Northwest early this morning, will
translate southeastward across the Central/Southern Plains Sunday
into Sunday evening, while dampening some as additional upper
troughing slides into the northwestern states. Moisture return will
be marginal ahead of this initial wave Sunday. Nevertheless,
isentropic lift/moistening is progged in the 290-300K layer toward
daybreak into Sunday afternoon across eastern Kansas. Not planning
to increase the low probabilities (20-40%) of light precipitation
mainly east of Interstate 135, as drier low-levels will need to be
overcome at least initially. Wetbulb effects and evaporative cooling
suggest any precipitation in the early to mid morning hours in the
form of light snow, or a light snow/rain mix; however, not expecting
accumulations. Some hints of another weak impulse moving quickly
eastward across the region on Monday, ahead of longwave upper
troughing in the northwest CONUS. This impulse could yield some
light drizzle/rain in southeast Kansas. Stratus could linger
Monday pm/night over eastern Kansas, as milder boundary layer
dewpoints advect northward.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Medium range models continue to indicate the upper trough moving
from the western states across the Plains late Tuesday into
Wednesday, before shifting to the eastern CONUS late in the week.
Gulf moisture quality/transport looks improved ahead of this upper
trough, but mainly just to the south and east of the forecast area,
from the Southern Plains into the Lower-Middle Mississippi Valley
given a veered southwesterly 850 mb jet. Showers and perhaps
isolated thunderstorms could develop over far southeast Kansas near
the Oklahoma border late Tuesday night, ahead of the cold front.
Otherwise, a swath of light rain changing to snow is progged behind
the surface front, within a mid-level baroclinic zone of forcing,
with the better model agreement for this to occur across our
central Kansas counties Tuesday night. Only brief cooling is
forecast by a model blend for midweek behind this departing upper
trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1147 PM CST Fri Feb 24 2017

At issuance the MVFR stratocu (~3,000ft) had vacated KCNU where NW
winds had dmnshd to ~13kts. All other areas were VFR w/ cldns lmtd
to cirriform variants & where winds were beginning to back twd the
W under 10kts. Winds acrs Cntrl & SC KS wl slowly back twd the S/SW
Sat Mrng as high pressure, covering SW Nebraska, NE CO & NW KS at
06Z, conts to move SE acrs OK. All areas wl rmn VFR thru Sat Eve &
lkly byd w/ cldns AOA 15,000ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 339 AM CST Sat Feb 25 2017

Lighter winds and cooler temperatures will keep grassland fire
danger levels low this Weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    45  30  52  34 /   0  10  10  10
Hutchinson      45  29  52  31 /   0  10  10  10
Newton          44  29  50  32 /   0  10  10  10
ElDorado        44  29  51  33 /   0  10  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   46  30  53  35 /   0  10  10  10
Russell         44  25  49  25 /   0  10   0   0
Great Bend      45  26  50  27 /   0  10   0   0
Salina          45  28  52  28 /   0  20  10  10
McPherson       44  28  51  29 /   0  10  10  10
Coffeyville     47  29  54  35 /   0  10  30  20
Chanute         45  29  51  33 /   0  10  40  10
Iola            45  29  50  32 /   0  10  40  10
Parsons-KPPF    46  29  53  35 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...JMC



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