Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 070521
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1121 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S. TEMPERATURES REMAINED LOWER
OVER THE SNOWPACK ACROSS RSL COUNTY WITH READINGS IN THE 30S.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL DRIVE
A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA BOTH DAYS. LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP HIGHS
FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.

TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COULD
DAMPEN THE DIURNAL RISE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK INTO THE
REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER THE BETTER PUSH OF
CANADIAN AIR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND LINGER THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO KANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON AND DEEP TURBULENT MIXING DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...IN MANY
LOCATIONS IN EXCESS OF 30-35MPH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AS TO HOW
STRONG THE SUSTAINED AND WIND GUSTS WILL GET AS MODELS DIFFER ON
HOW DEEP THE MIXING WILL BE. IF DEEPER MIXING DOES DEVELOP...WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE ADDITION OF STRONGER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT TAFS. EXPECT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
30S AND 40S PRODUCING A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BOTH DAYS. OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE AVOIDED BOTH
DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    30  56  27  43 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      30  55  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          30  54  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        30  56  26  42 /   0   0  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   30  59  27  44 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         28  42  23  35 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      28  46  24  39 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          30  54  25  41 /   0   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       30  52  25  40 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     32  59  28  42 /   0   0  10   0
CHANUTE         32  57  27  40 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            32  55  27  38 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    32  57  27  41 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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