Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 300927
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TYPE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP
SHOWED A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH AN EASTERN PACIFIC UPPER TROF WHICH WILL IMPACT THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL LAG THE
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...THOUGH FAIRLY DECENT
ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATER THIS EVENING.
PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH A DEEPER LAYER LATER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD PRECIP
AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE SOME MIXED PHASE PRECIP/SNOW
IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET TONIGHT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...MODEL
TRENDS IN THE SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY A CHILLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROF WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...DRIVING A STRONG POLAR FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS BEFORE THE BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT
IS SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY SUNDAY. WHILE A PERIOD
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...IT STILL APPEARS RESIDENCE TIME AND
RATES WILL ONLY SUPPORT AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION...
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GREATER WICHITA. BRISK
AND OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
FOLLOW FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO OUTER PERIODS WILL BE MADE WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED
BY TUESDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR OVERSPREADS
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK. EXCEPT FOR TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO AVERAGE A BIT BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO NEXT WEEK WITH
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP LOW AT THIS TIME.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RETURN...ALBEIT LIGHT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. EXPECT DEVELOPMENT
AT THE WESTERN TERMINALS AFTER 00Z AND AT KRSL/KSLN EARLIER THAN
KHUT/KICT. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT AS THE SURFACE
LAYER COOLS SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN. THINK THIS WILL OCCUR NEAR
THE END OF THIS VALID PERIOD...AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IT IN THIS
FORECAST. AS THE RAIN AND POTENTIAL SNOW MOVES EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO ALL TERMINALS.

BILLINGS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  34  42  32 /   0  70  80  80
HUTCHINSON      47  33  41  29 /  10  70  80  80
NEWTON          47  32  40  30 /   0  70  80  80
ELDORADO        47  33  41  31 /   0  60  80  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  35  43  33 /   0  60  80  80
RUSSELL         47  32  40  26 /  10  70  60  70
GREAT BEND      47  32  40  27 /  10  70  70  70
SALINA          48  33  40  28 /   0  70  80  80
MCPHERSON       47  32  41  28 /  10  70  80  80
COFFEYVILLE     48  34  44  34 /   0  30  80  80
CHANUTE         46  32  43  32 /   0  40  80  80
IOLA            45  32  42  31 /   0  50  80  80
PARSONS-KPPF    48  33  43  33 /   0  40  80  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$



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