Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 280504
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1204 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Forecast challenges/highlights will be thunderstorm chances
through Thursday evening, and again Saturday night/Sunday through
early next week.

Tonight...Scattered thunderstorms across eastern KS this morning
into the afternoon were/are being driven by 800-600mb warm/moist
advection on eastern edge of approaching elevated mixed layer and
associated pool of instability. This activity should gradually die
out by late afternoon or early evening. Otherwise, expecting a
large thunderstorm complex or two to roll east off the High Plains
across NE and far northern KS overnight, as shortwave energy
approaches from the west. Some of this activity could clip
portions of central and east-central KS after 11pm. However, given
warmer 700mb temperatures and associated stout capping, severe
threat will be confined to far northern KS and NE.

Wednesday...A few non-severe showers/storms should linger into
the morning across portions of central and east-central KS.
Otherwise, a trailing weak frontal zone is expected to stall
somewhere across central KS Wednesday afternoon. Convergence is
expected to be weak and upper support almost non-existent, so only
expecting the potential for a few isolated storms along the front
if capping can be overcome. If storms can form, ample instability
and modest shear will support severe weather in the form of large
hail and damaging winds. Tornado threat will be low given
marginal shear and high cloud bases. Given lack of large scale
support and increasing inhibition, thinking this activity should
dissipate by late evening or midnight. Attention then turns to a
potential thunderstorm complex Wed night mainly along/north of
I-70, as activity rolls east off the High Plains. Severe weather
in the form of damaging winds is possible with this activity.

Thursday...The greatest potential for more widespread/numerous
storms is Thursday afternoon-evening, as a potent shortwave and
associated strong cold front approach from the west/northwest.
Ample instability and deep layer shear will support severe weather
with large hail and damaging winds, along with locally heavy
rain. Thinking tornado threat will be low given high cloud bases
and strong linear forcing, although one cannot be ruled out
especially early on if there are outflow/boundary intersections.
Magnitude, placement and extent of Wed night thunderstorms will
likely have a big impact on placement of Thursday`s cold front and
associated thunderstorm chances. Stay tuned.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jun 27 2017

Friday-Saturday...Expecting quiet/tranquil weather in wake of the
cold front, with a cool down into the 80s and dewpoints dropping
into the 50s-60s.

Sunday-Tuesday...Periodic thunderstorm chances should enter back
into the forecast sometime Saturday night/Sunday and persist into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

All Central & South-Central KS terminals will experience S winds
sustained from 17-25kt throughout the night with lower velocities
at KCNU. Around 03Z, a low-level jet will hit the throttle across
all areas with 45-50kts encountered. The low-level jet will slowly
"diminish" ~15Z when increased mixing would enable S winds to
reach 22-30kts sustained in most areas with 30-35kt gusts. The srn
portion of an MCS that is moving E across most of Nebraska has
extended into NW & Wrn KS. These TSRA are likely to impact KRSL &
KGBD from 07-09Z. Have sufficient confidence to assign "TEMPO
2807/2809 5SM TSRA" to both terminals during this 2-hour period.
Am not as confident the TSRA will reach as far as KSLN but have
assigned "VCTS" to this terminal from 09Z-12Z. All areas to
maintain VFR status through Wed evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  94  72  94 /  10  20  10   0
Hutchinson      73  96  71  94 /  20  20  20  10
Newton          72  93  71  92 /  20  20  20  10
ElDorado        71  91  71  92 /  10  20  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   72  93  73  93 /   0  10  10   0
Russell         73  96  69  94 /  30  10  30  10
Great Bend      73  96  69  94 /  30  10  30  10
Salina          74  96  72  95 /  30  20  30  20
McPherson       73  95  71  94 /  20  20  20  20
Coffeyville     69  91  72  91 /   0  10  10   0
Chanute         70  90  71  90 /   0  10  10  10
Iola            70  90  70  90 /  10  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    70  90  72  91 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...EPS


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