Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 191739
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM IOWA TO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...WILL
PASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LEVELS BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT NOT EXPECTING A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES WITH FULL
SUNSHINE AND REMNANT SNOWMELT IN THE SOUTH. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE THURSDAY AHEAD OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WHICH SHOULD KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY`S IN THE 40S. THIS WAVE
WILL PASS EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER-800 MB MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TOWARD
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH SATURATED LOW-LEVELS AND DRY MID-LEVELS THEN
PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY THEN SOUTHERLY. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 285-295K
LAYER WILL ALSO INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING...PERSISTING OVER EASTERN
KS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LOOKS
HIGHLY LIKELY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE. GIVEN EARLY MORNING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOWER
30S...LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE TEMPS
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
THE STRATUS/DRIZZLE SHOULD MAKE FOR A RELATIVELY SMALLER DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...REACHING THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WHILE
BECOMING NEGATIVELY-TILTED. SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL ALLOW THERMAL PROFILES TO WARM IN THE LOW-MID
LEVELS...KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN. THE MID-LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL PASS OVER SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS WHERE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE TARGETED SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DROPPING OFF MARKEDLY NORTHWEST OF THE KANSAS
TURNPIKE. MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SPREAD INTO SOUTHEASTERN
KS WHERE ISOLATED THUNDER MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE RAIN PATTERN. MILDER
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AS THIS STORM SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY...WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE PUSHING EASTWARD. VERY SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED WELL EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE SATURDAY SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. MODEL BOUNDARY
LAYERS ARE BEING ADVERSELY INFLUENCED BY MODEL SNOW COVER. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE NEAR SUNSET...WITH RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  23  44  30 /   0   0   0  20
HUTCHINSON      45  23  44  27 /   0   0   0  20
NEWTON          44  23  43  29 /   0   0   0  20
ELDORADO        46  24  44  30 /   0   0   0  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  24  46  32 /   0   0   0  20
RUSSELL         44  22  45  25 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      45  23  45  26 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          44  22  43  26 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       44  23  43  27 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     50  23  47  33 /   0   0   0  30
CHANUTE         48  21  44  30 /   0   0   0  20
IOLA            47  21  43  30 /   0   0   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    49  21  46  31 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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