Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 280833
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
333 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Forecast highlights through early next week: Periodic widespread
showers/storms late this afternoon through early Thursday with
locally heavy rain likely, and possibly again this weekend into
early next week.

Areas of fog may impact locations generally west of I-135 early
this morning, and especially central Kansas. Locally dense fog is
possible.

A strong, slow-moving storm system will impact Mid-America the
next few days, supporting periodic showers/thunderstorms from late
this afternoon through early Thursday. The greatest potential for
concentrated heavy rainfall rates will be this evening and
tonight, and possibly extending through Wednesday as well, when
the most favorable combination of large scale ascent, frontal
lift, warm advection, moisture transport and instability will be
present. Given the likely progressive nature of the convection,
widespread flooding appears unlikely, although the threat for
localized high water issues will be a threat, along with modest
rises in area streams/creeks/rivers. At this point though
widespread river flooding is not expected either. The severe
weather threat should remain fairly low throughout the event,
although could see a handful of strong to marginally severe storms
capable of dime- quarter size hail over mainly southern/southeast
Kansas this evening-tonight, and again Wednesday afternoon-
evening in the vicinity of the frontal zone. Widespread storm-
total rainfall amounts through early Thursday will likely be in
the 1-2" range, with locally higher amounts up to 4" probable,
depending on where the heaviest convection tracks.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Another storm system is expected to impact the region with
additional rain/storms this weekend into early next week. However,
confidence on the evolution and timing of this storm system
beyond the Four Corners region is highly uncertain given the large
spread in GFS ensemble member 500mb heights. Rain is likely, but
how much or how heavy is yet to be seen.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Aviation concerns remain low clouds and fog tonight into Tue
morning.

MVFR ceilings remain at all sites with the exception of KGBD-
KRSL with these sites eventually coming down in the next couple of
hours. Moist easterly flow should continue to lower ceilings
overnight with IFR a good bet by sunrise for sites along and
especially west of I-135. Should also see some fog after 09z due
to mainly upslope processes and/or stratus build down. Also feel
the best chances will be along our western flank, affecting mainly
KHUT-KRSL-KGBD. Fairly confident we are not looking at dense fog
but may see some vsbys lower than 3sm. At least some MVFR ceilings
should maintain through the early afternoon hours Tue, with
showers approaching our western flank by 00z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Breezy east winds may support pockets of low-end very high
grassland fire danger across the region this afternoon. However,
suspect the limiting factor will be increasing cloud cover and
marginal afternoon humidity values in the 50s-60s percent.
Otherwise, periodic rain chances along with cooler temperatures
should support low fire danger levels the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    62  53  62  44 /  30  90  80  50
Hutchinson      60  50  54  43 /  50  90  80  60
Newton          59  50  58  42 /  20  90  80  60
ElDorado        61  52  63  44 /  10  90  80  60
Winfield-KWLD   66  55  67  46 /  20  90  80  50
Russell         54  46  48  39 /  70  90  80  70
Great Bend      53  47  48  40 /  70  90  80  60
Salina          58  49  51  42 /  30  90  90  70
McPherson       58  50  53  42 /  40  90  90  60
Coffeyville     68  57  70  50 /  10  90  80  60
Chanute         64  54  68  49 /  10  90  90  70
Iola            62  53  66  49 /  10  90  80  70
Parsons-KPPF    67  56  70  50 /  10  90  80  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...ADK


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