Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 140444
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1144 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy approaching the
northern Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, a much weaker southern
stream impulse is approaching NM. At the surface, very moist
airmass remains over the central and southern Plains with a cold
front stretching across nw Nebraska.

Storms are expected to develop late this afternoon over the high
Plains of eastern CO and track southeast this evening. With lack
of focus tonight and high Plains activity staying west, will leave
storms out for tonight. Showers and storms should increase over OK
Mon, as the impulse currently approaching NM, moves out into the
southern Plains. At this time, it appears far southern KS will
have the best chance to see some light showers or a couple storms
tomorrow. Mid-upper flow will start to turn more southwesterly Mon
night into Tue which will ramp up 850-700mb moisture transport
across the forecast area. This will lead to increased precip
chances late Mon night into Tue morning. Even though lower
atmosphere will remain very moist Tue, not overly impressed with
precip chances as the better forcing lifts off to the northeast.

Tue night into Wed there is decent model agreement that a fairly
robust shortwave will move out across the central Plains. This
will allow a cold front to push through Wed into Wed evening with
this front likely having showers and storms tied to it.

A small warm-up can be expected for Tue and Wed but afternoon
highs still look to remain below seasonal normals.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Pattern looks to remain active through most of these extended
periods as broad upper trough remains from the Rockies into the
mid/northern Mississippi Valley. There seems to be some agreement
between the ECMWF and GFS in bringing an upper perturbation out
of the nw flow Thu night into Fri morning which would lead to some
elevated precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Main Aviation Hazard: Stratus potential

Most or all of the convection occurring over the high Plains late this
evening is expected to remain to the west/northwest of central
Kansas. A small cluster of storms in south central Nebraska will
try to propagate southward overnight toward I-70 in central
Kansas, but is expected to weaken or diminish as it approaches
the central Kansas terminals (RSL,GBD). For now, have left
mention of storms out of all terminals. A light, very moist
southeasterly boundary layer should lead to a period of low
stratus late tonight into the early morning hours Monday in south-
central/southeast Kansas. Have IFR indicated at HUT and ICT, and
LIFR for a few hours at the CNU terminal where some fog is also
possible. The stratus should gradually lift, then scatter out
from mid morning through midday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    68  86  70  91 /  10  10  30  20
Hutchinson      67  87  69  91 /  10  10  30  30
Newton          66  86  69  89 /  10  10  30  30
ElDorado        66  84  69  89 /  10  10  40  30
Winfield-KWLD   67  86  71  90 /  10  20  40  20
Russell         65  89  68  92 /  10  10  30  20
Great Bend      65  88  69  91 /  10  10  30  20
Salina          65  86  70  92 /  10  10  30  30
McPherson       66  86  69  90 /  10  10  30  30
Coffeyville     65  86  70  88 /  10  20  50  50
Chanute         63  84  69  87 /  10  10  40  40
Iola            63  84  69  87 /  10  10  40  40
Parsons-KPPF    64  85  70  87 /  10  20  50  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...JMC



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