Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 151144
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
644 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION
TODAY...IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THINKING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION WILL FAVOR A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
STRONG/SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. IN THE COLD FRONT`S
WAKE...BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ARE
EXPECTED...WITH READINGS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WARMING WELL INTO THE
80S. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER SOUTHERN KS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN ZONE OF WEAK 850MB CONVERGENCE. COOLER
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS TUESDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AS
LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. COULD ALSO SEE
ACTIVITY ROLL IN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AFTER DARK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN
THE VICINITY OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AMIDST PERSISTENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...BUT THE SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS IS LOW.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

WARMER...BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT...GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST INCREASING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...AS REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE...CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...GETS CAUGHT
UP IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH
MAY ENHANCE THESE CHANCES. FOR NOW WENT 30-50 POPS FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE LOWER CIGS AND WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF I-70 AND IS
CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTH. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KRSL BY 13Z AND
KICT AROUND 19Z. SOME LOWER CIGS WILL MOVE-IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME MVFR LEVELS EXPECTED AT KRSL AND KSLN THIS MORNING. SOME
ISO-SCT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY WITH A
STORM OR TWO ALSO POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN KS. SOME OF THE
LOWER CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN KS WITH SOME
MVFR LEVELS A POSSIBILITY.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  58  76  64 /  20  20  10  20
HUTCHINSON      76  56  76  63 /  20  10  10  20
NEWTON          79  55  74  62 /  20  10  10  20
ELDORADO        82  56  75  62 /  20  30  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  59  77  64 /  30  30  10  20
RUSSELL         69  51  74  62 /  20   0  10  30
GREAT BEND      69  54  75  62 /  20  10  10  30
SALINA          70  49  74  62 /  20   0  10  30
MCPHERSON       71  55  75  63 /  20  10  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     86  59  76  63 /  50  40  10  30
CHANUTE         85  56  74  60 /  40  30  10  30
IOLA            82  55  73  59 /  30  30  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    86  58  75  61 /  50  40  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.