Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 210751
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
251 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

GOES-16 channels 8, 9 and 10 continue to indicate a robust
mid/upper trough moving into the Rockies early this morning while
KGLD WSR-88D shows a cold front beginning to impact northwest
Kansas. This mid/upper trough is progged to emerge over the
Central Plains states late in the day and into the overnight
hours. As it does, the cold front will become the focus for deep
moist convection. Cinh is progged to weaken sufficiently between
19-21Z with relatively strong convergence progged along the front.
The timing from yesterday continues to appear on track with
storms expected to develop by around or shortly after 2 pm when
the front stretches from near Salina to Hutchinson. The front will
impact locations along a line from near Harper to Wichita to
Cottonwood Falls by around 4 pm while continuing to surge eastward
through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. Severe
storms are still anticipated given 0-1km MLCAPE of 1700+ J/KG and
0-6km bulk shear vectors around 50 knots. While a couple of
initial supercells may be possible, a relatively quick transition
to a linear mode still seems like the most likely scenario along
the front with damaging winds the primary concern. An unseasonably
moist airmass is in place across southeast Kansas with PWATs
progged to rise to around 1.65 inches which is around 225 percent
of normal. So, as the front slows down a bit over southeast
Kansas, efficient rainfall production could lead to some flooding
concerns through the evening and overnight hours.

Sun-Mon...storms are expected to be east of the area by 12Z Sun with
a cooler and drier airmass in their wake. Seasonable temperatures
are expected ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. Another
progressive shortwave trough will drive a cold front south across
the area late Mon but not before highs rise into the lower 70s under
shortwave ridging. Low level moisture will be shunted south of the
area so the front coming in late Monday is expected to come through
with dry weather conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Breezy northwest winds will prevail across the area on Tuesday in
the wake of a clipper-like system digging across the Upper
Mississippi Valley area. Winds will need to be increased as
confidence grows in the coming days. Northwest mid/upper flow will
prevail through the middle of the week before another shortwave
trough arrives late Thu. Some differences in amplitude remain
between the GFS and ECMWF but both models tend to agree with much
cooler air arriving in the wake of the system. As high pressure
settles across the area Thu night/Fri Morning conditions may
become favorable for the first widespread hard freeze across the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Oct 20 2017

Strong and gusty southerly winds will continue in the morning
hours on Saturday, especially for RSL and GBD, as a deep low
pressure system approaches from the west. Increasing sky cover
with MVFR ceilings will linger through the morning. By early
afternoon, a cold front will make its way into the CWA. For RSL
and GBD, the main concerns will be a shift in wind direction,
transitioning from southerly flow to northwesterly flow around
17Z. In addition to shifting winds at other area airports, a main
concern will be chances for strong to severe thunderstorms
developing along the front. Thunderstorm activity is expected to
begin by mid-afternoon for HUT, SLN, and ICT, then diminishing by
00Z. Impacts of thunderstorms are expected at CNU a little later,
beginning around 23Z until the end of this TAF period. Main
concerns with these storms will be strong wind gusts, heavy rain,
and quarter to half dollar size hail.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  45  70  45 /  70  50   0   0
Hutchinson      74  43  70  44 /  50  20   0   0
Newton          75  43  69  45 /  70  40   0   0
ElDorado        75  46  69  45 /  80  70   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   75  46  69  45 /  80  80   0   0
Russell         71  37  71  45 /  20   0   0   0
Great Bend      71  37  71  45 /  20  10   0   0
Salina          74  43  71  45 /  50  20   0   0
McPherson       74  42  70  44 /  50  20   0   0
Coffeyville     78  51  68  43 /  70 100  10   0
Chanute         77  49  68  43 /  80  90  10   0
Iola            77  50  67  43 /  80  90  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    77  51  68  43 /  70  90  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...TAV



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