Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 252333
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHORT TERM/HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT THREE AREAS OF CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IMPACTS ON THE FORECAST AREA AND SEEM
REASONABLE GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY/FORCING/FOCUSING
MECHANISMS. DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH MLCAPES OVER 3000 J/KG. THIS HAS
SUPPORTED RECENT CONVECTION JUST SOUTHWEST OF KICT. THE RAP SHOWED
THIS WELL IN LATEST RUNS. THE HRRR AND RAP ALSO DEVELOP ANOTHER AREA
OF CONVECTION JUST AFTER 00Z SOUTH OF SOUTHWARD SAGGING SURFACE FRONT
MOVING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING WHERE RETURN MOISTURE FLUX
SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG FOR A BRIEF TIME.
THIRD AREA IS EXPECTED ON NORTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER SOUTHERN
PLAINS PV ANOMALY WHICH WILL SWEEP NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DESPITE MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR THE PROGGED INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE DEEP
CONVECTION WILL LEND TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THE OVERALL
COVERAGE/DURATION OF THE EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO NECESSITATE A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. AS THE MAIN UPPER TROF ROTATES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING TUESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT
WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS MAY SUPPORT RENEWED DIURNAL CONVECTION
ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUASI-
STATIONARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY COULD FESTER INTO PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LINGER
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO WEDNESDAY OR POSSIBLY MIGRATE NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DIURNAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN
STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DESPITE SOME WEAK CAPPING POTENTIAL...CONDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINTAINED ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS.
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING
AND A BETTER LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE IMPINGING INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES/HIGHER POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE GOING FORECAST.
THURSDAY COULD BE A PERIODICALLY WET/STORMY DAY WITH A COUPLE OF
MIGRATORY SHORTWAVES ALOFT AND CONTINUED MOISTURE TRANSPORT
SUPPORTING CONVECTION.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE PINNACLE OF THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH DIMINISHING
CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND HOPEFULLY A DRY PERIOD BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED IN THE GFS
AND ECMWF...THOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS A STRONGER UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS
THE HIGHER CONVECTIVE CHANCES/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

INSTABILITY AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITIES OF RSL...SLN...HUT...AND ICT THIS
EVENING BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHES/DISSIPATES OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT CNU TERMINAL FROM
MID EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA. POTENTIAL FOR IFR
STRATUS/FOG SEEMS RELATIVELY HIGHER IN SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SO HAVE HINTED AT THAT POSSIBILITY IN THE
THE SOUTHERN TAFS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  79  61  82 /  40  20  30  30
HUTCHINSON      59  79  60  82 /  50  20  30  30
NEWTON          60  78  60  80 /  50  20  30  30
ELDORADO        60  79  61  82 /  40  20  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  80  61  82 /  40  20  40  30
RUSSELL         57  78  58  82 /  50  10  20  30
GREAT BEND      57  78  58  81 /  50  10  20  30
SALINA          60  80  59  82 /  60  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       60  79  59  81 /  60  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     62  80  62  82 /  50  20  40  30
CHANUTE         62  79  62  82 /  50  20  40  30
IOLA            62  79  62  81 /  50  20  30  30
PARSONS-KPPF    62  80  62  82 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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