Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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760
FXUS63 KICT 290441
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1141 PM CDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Precip chances/convective trends remain the main challenge the
next few days. Diurnal convection initiated a bit earlier this
afternoon where MLCAPE values have already exceeded 2200 j/kg
along and southeast of the turnpike. Deep layer shear is even
weaker than yesterday, so would expect a continued northward
drift/propagation driven by storm downdrafts/outflows, which
would allow some convection to spread across south central
and central Kansas late this afternoon into early evening. Some
convection could linger or redevelop across the I-70 corridor
of central Kansas overnight with diminishing PoPs across the
rest of the forecast area. Little change is expected into Monday
with mainly diurnally driven convection in the afternoon so will
hold with slight to modest chance PoPs. Remnants of the upper
low spinning over the southwest CONUS still looks to emerge as
a weaker low or shear axis as it migrates across the central
Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. The low level flow will gradually
back to a mean easterly component with weak to modest westerly
flow aloft. The moist and unstable airmass will remain in place
giving a slight up-tick to precip/convective chances during the
mid-week periods. Increased clouds and the somewhat cooler
easterly component flow will result in temperatures several
degrees below climo by Wednesday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

The remnant trof or shear axis is expected to weaken further
or shift southeast of the area later in the week under the mean
upper ridge across the Plains. Somewhat drier air advecting
into the area should limit or mitigate precip chances until
the weekend with temperatures gradually warming again closer to
climo.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sun Aug 28 2016

VFR conditions are expected to dominate the forecast area overnight
tonight.  The only exception will be CNU which is expected to have
some patchy fog toward morning which may bring the area into MVFR
for a few hours this morning. Any fog in the CNU area is expected to
burn off shortly after sunrise.  Monday will be VFR for the most
part. Monday afternoon a lower level cumulus field will develop and
scattered showers and thunderstorms will follow in the RSL, GBD and
SLN areas by mid afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  88  69  87 /  20  20  20  30
Hutchinson      67  88  67  86 /  20  20  30  40
Newton          68  87  68  85 /  20  20  20  40
ElDorado        68  88  68  87 /  30  30  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   69  89  69  88 /  20  30  20  30
Russell         66  86  66  83 /  30  30  40  40
Great Bend      66  86  66  84 /  30  30  40  40
Salina          68  88  68  85 /  20  30  30  40
McPherson       67  87  67  85 /  30  30  30  40
Coffeyville     69  91  69  90 /  20  30  20  30
Chanute         69  88  69  87 /  20  30  20  30
Iola            69  88  69  86 /  20  30  20  30
Parsons-KPPF    69  90  69  88 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...ELM



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