Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 040743
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
243 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE STRETCHING FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

NORTH/NW UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THU AS THE AREA REMAINS STUCK BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH ON BOTH
COASTS. UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO BREAK DOWN FRI AS THE DEEP
CLOSED LOW APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL
PROMOTE A WARMING TREND WITH 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING MID AND UPPER
80S BY FRI. ALSO SHOULDN`T SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THROUGH
FRI.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THIS TIME FRAME IS STARTING TO LOOK ACTIVE AS THE SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW FINALLY MIGRATES OUT INTO THE PLAINS.

BY SAT AFTERNOON...THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN WITH SOME OF THE
ENERGY STARTING TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN CO.
ANY SURFACED BASED CONVECTION ON SAT SHOULD BE WELL WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOOSE DRYLINE.
WILL INTRODUCE STORM CHANCES SAT NIGHT AS SOME OF THE BETTER 850-700MB
MOISTURE WORKS EAST...WHICH SHOULD GENERATE SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION. WILL KEEP THE MODEST STORM CHANCES IN FOR SUN THROUGH
MON AS THE DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT SHOW UP
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BY MON...WITH THE ECMWF MORE
PROGRESSIVE IN LIFTING THIS FEATURE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN QUESTION
FOR CONVECTION SUN INTO MON WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE ON THE DRYLINE TO GET STORMS TO DEVELOP IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. IF STORMS DEVELOP...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO GET SUPERCELLS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WIND
SHIFT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE THROUGH KCNU...WITH WINDS INCREASING
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE. SOME STRATOCUMULUS ANTICIPATED
ALONG/EAST OF I-35 WHERE SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE/VEER AROUND SUNSET. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  47  79  54 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      75  45  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          74  47  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        74  46  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   76  46  79  53 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         75  46  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      76  47  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          75  45  81  53 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       75  45  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     75  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         73  44  77  51 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            72  44  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    74  45  77  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.