Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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516
FXUS63 KICT 292313
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
613 PM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Water vapor imagery shows the upper low continuing to spin over
the Ohio/Tennessee Valley with ridging over the Plains. At the
surface, a ridge extends from the northern Miss valley down into
central TX.

Upper low is expected to remain stationary through Fri as some
southern stream energy lifts across the desert sw. This will keep
conditions across the Plains Fri fairly similar to today, with
temps a degree or two warmer. Upper low will finally start to lift
back to the north Fri evening into Sat as some more robust upper
energy comes on shore over the Pacific NW. Will leave some small
rain chances in Sat night over central KS as some mid level warm
advection increases, but confidence is very low at this time.

Slow warming trend will continue into the weekend, with highs in
the upper 70s area wide expected by Sun.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

Potent shortwave will continue tracking east and by Mon evening
will be approaching the central Rockies and by Tue, moving out
into the high Plains. The GFS has this system further north
compared to the ECMWF but the timing is fairly similar between the
models. Regardless of which one verifies, there should be a broken
line of storms developing Tue afternoon/evening, with the GFS
solution affecting more of our forecast area. Looks like a classic
low topped supercell event shaping up, with high shear/low cape
storms racing off to the northeast. Will be something to keep an
eye on. So at this time it looks like the Tue-Tue night time frame
is our best chance for storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Sep 29 2016

VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period.
Surface ridge axis will remain situated across central into
eastern Kansas with light winds. Except for some increase in thin
cirrus over western into central Kansas, generally clear skies
expected.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    48  73  51  75 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      46  72  50  75 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          47  71  50  73 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        46  72  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   47  73  51  76 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         44  72  49  74 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      45  72  50  75 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          46  73  49  75 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       46  72  50  74 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     48  74  50  77 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         48  72  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            48  72  50  74 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    48  74  50  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...KED



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