Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 232324
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
624 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Semi diffuse frontal boundary has pushed south into central OK at
this time, with just a few lingering elevated showers along the mid
level baroclinic zone over nrn OK.  Somewhat drier air continues to
push into the rest of the forecast area, which has led to heat
indices remaining well below 100, so plan on canceling the
excessive heat warning for SE KS with this issuance.

Think main convective chances this afternoon will develop to the
south of the forecast area across central OK, where surface
convergence will be better.  A moderately unstable airmass still
lingers to the north of the front across srn KS. With late afternoon
heating, think widely scattered/isolated storms may develop across
southern KS as the environment becomes uncapped.  Expect most of
this shower/storm activity to be south of highway 54/400, or south
of the Wichita Metro.  As the evening progresses, propagation will
shift most of the storm activity into nrn OK.  Slow movement of the
storms may lead to some heavy rainfall along the KS/OK border before
the storms move south of the area.

Expect the surface boundary to wash out late tonight or early Mon
across OK, with return southerly flow on the backside of the weak
surface ridge returning to wrn KS and wrn sections of the forecast
area by Mon afternoon. Lingering moderate instability with this
return flow may lead to an isolated storm chance for areas across
south central KS for Mon afternoon/evening given the weakly capped
environment.

Upper ridge will try to build across the plains for Mon-Wed, which
will lead to max temps once again climbing above normal into the
upper 90s, close to 100 by Tue and Wed.  Expecting warm mid level
temps for Tue as well, which will keep most convective chances in
check. Could see an isolated storm chance for Tue afternoon for
areas north-northeast of ICT, due to a weak cap but definitely
nothing widespread.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

Most of the medium range models suggest that an impulse in the
northern plains will help push another frontal boundary south across
the forecast area for Wed evening/night.  This will be the next
widespread shower and thunderstorm chance for the area for Wed night
through Thu as the front pushes south across the area.

Te upper ridge looks to retrograde back to the west for the end of
the week, with will lead to more seasonal temps and conditions for
the region for the end of the week.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites across
central/southern Kansas for the next 24hrs as surface high
pressure noses into the region. Light east and southeast winds
will occur during the day on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  95  73  98 /  10  20  10  10
Hutchinson      69  96  73  98 /  10  10  10  10
Newton          69  94  72  97 /  10  10  10  10
ElDorado        69  94  72  96 /  10  10  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   71  95  73  97 /  20  20  10  10
Russell         68  97  73 100 /   0  10  10  10
Great Bend      67  96  72  99 /  10  10  10  10
Salina          69  98  74 100 /   0  10  10  20
McPherson       68  95  72  98 /  10  10  10  20
Coffeyville     71  95  72  96 /  20  10  10  10
Chanute         69  94  71  95 /  10  10  10  10
Iola            68  93  70  95 /  10  10  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    70  94  72  96 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...CDJ


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