Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 240434
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1134 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Main challenge is potential for wind advisory Monday, then precip
chances/trends into late Tuesday thru Wednesday. South winds will
increase with departing surface ridge this evening and overnight,
especially over central Kansas. Surface pressure falls in
response to a lead shortwave upper trof moving across the area
thru midday Monday will result in a tightening gradient with
steep low level lapse rates promoting momentum transfer of
stronger winds below 850 mb to the surface. Local wind procedure
supports NAM/GFS MOS for window of several hours meeting wind
advisory for locales generally along and west of the Kansas
turnpike, though will segment this due to temporal differences
where criteria will be met from west to east. Otherwise a mostly
sunny and much warmer day on Monday with highs nearing 80F in a
few locales across central Kansas. Strong flow aloft moving in off
the Pacific coast will continue to develop and amplify an upper
trof across the western CONUS into Tuesday. This upper trof will
then move east across the Plains Tuesday night thru Wednesday.
Relatively warm mid-level temperatures look to limit convective
chances in the warm sector ahead of the surface cold front until
very late on Tuesday, more likely toward or after dark Tuesday
evening/night. Chances for some elevated, post-frontal convection
look better Tuesday night, perhaps as far northwest as the Kansas
turnpike. Otherwise, a cold rain and brisk north wind looks to
affect much of the area into midday Wednesday, before
diminishing/ending from west to east later in the day.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Enough variance remains among the ECMWF and GFS, especially
members of the GEFS, for only modest confidence in the daily
forecast and trends Friday through Sunday. That said, there
is higher confidence on a rather unsettled/wet and stormy pattern
thru these periods as a whole. General agreement exists in the
development of a closed upper low near the four corners by early
Saturday, though the latest GFS is further south and slower to
lift the low out across the Plains over the weekend. The position
and track of the effective surface front and how far north and
when it may move into or across central and eastern Kansas is the
main challenge. This will have ramifications on not only
temperatures but also convective chances and severe weather
potential and magnitude. For now will continue to mention strong
to severe storms, however confidence remains low enough to
preclude specifics.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Main Hazards: Low-level wind shear, and strong surface wind gusts
Monday.

A nocturnal temperature inversion and low-level jet off the
surface will result in low-level wind shear overnight into early
Monday morning, across the central and south central Kansas
terminals (~1500-2000 ft agl). Diurnal heating and steepening
surface-800 mb lapse rates will allow for southerly winds
increasing at the surface and gusting to 35-40 knots in central
/south-central KS from mid morning into the afternoon hours.
Another low-level wind shear signal is indicated to develop Monday
evening/overnight across central/eastern Kansas, in response to
decoupled/backed boundary layer winds and a strong south-
southwesterly low-level jet. VFR conditions will prevail for the
next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  77  55  75 /   0   0  10  10
Hutchinson      47  78  54  72 /   0   0  10  10
Newton          46  76  54  72 /   0   0  10  10
ElDorado        46  76  55  75 /   0   0  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   46  77  56  78 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         49  81  52  66 /   0   0  10  20
Great Bend      49  80  52  68 /   0   0  10  20
Salina          48  79  55  69 /   0   0  20  20
McPherson       47  78  54  70 /   0   0  10  10
Coffeyville     43  76  56  79 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         43  75  55  77 /   0   0  10  10
Iola            43  75  55  76 /   0   0  10  10
Parsons-KPPF    44  76  56  78 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon to 5 PM CDT Monday for KSZ049-051>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 2 PM CDT Monday for KSZ032-033-047-
048-050.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...JMC


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