Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 221714
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1214 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
RIPPLE IN UPPER FLOW COMBINING WITH INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. WITH DEPARTING UPPER SUPPORT...PRECIPITATION IS A BIT
MORE TENUOUS THIS AFTERNOON. AREA WILL BE LEFT WITH NEARLY
SATURATED AIRMASS BELOW 700MB...BUT 850MB WARM AIR ADVECTION IS
GOING TO ADVECTION AND LITTLE/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. THINKING
SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE/WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE THE
RULE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT
TONIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT INCREASES AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SUPPRESSED TODAY AND MODERATED TONIGHT DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED SO RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE OR LIKELY TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

SAT-SUN:

SAT MORNING WILL LIKELY SEE A CONTINUATION OF PRECIPITATION FROM
SAT NIGHT...WITH SOME DRYING POSSIBLE MIDDAY. HOWEVER A BIGGER
PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA SAT NIGHT...WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN LIKELY. GIVEN MOISTURE...AMOUNTS SUBSTANTIAL
RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED...WITH ANOTHER ROUND MOVING THROUGH ON
SUN. HEAVIEST RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY EAST OF I-35. THAT
SAID...CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD AREAS EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT IS LOW...SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES
WITH THIS PACKAGE. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN LONGWAVE PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING IN
WESTERN US AND RIDGING IN THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA
VULNERABLE TO RIPPLES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW EVERY 12-24HRS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. WITH DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...AM STUCK WITH AT LEAST SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
OVER ENTIRE AREA THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT
CONTINUOUS OR EVEN PERSISTENT RAIN EVERY DAY...UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF WAVES WILL KEEP THREAT GOING. BETTER CHANCES AT THIS
POINT ARE MON NIGHT-TUE WITH BOTH ECMWF/GFS HINTING AT ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN KS
THIS AFTERNOON TAKING MAIN RAIN SWATH WITH IT. SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. DRIZZLE AND
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS TONIGHT
WITH UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOIST ISENTROPIC LIFT ALOFT. A
ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  55  64  63 / 100  80  70  80
HUTCHINSON      58  54  64  62 / 100  80  60  60
NEWTON          58  53  63  62 / 100  80  70  80
ELDORADO        59  54  64  63 / 100  80  70  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  55  68  63 / 100  70  70  80
RUSSELL         57  54  64  61 / 100  80  50  50
GREAT BEND      57  54  64  61 / 100  80  50  50
SALINA          59  54  65  62 / 100  70  50  60
MCPHERSON       58  54  63  62 / 100  80  60  60
COFFEYVILLE     66  56  74  65 /  80  70  70  90
CHANUTE         64  56  70  64 /  70  70  70  90
IOLA            64  56  68  64 /  70  70  70  90
PARSONS-KPPF    65  56  73  65 /  80  70  70  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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