Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 291645
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1145 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

NW flow pattern will continue to dominate the weather pattern for
the next couple of days.  A weak cold front located across Central
Nebraska will slowly drop south during the morning hours,
"backdooring" its way across the forecast area by the afternoon.
Some question on where this front will be located for the afternoon
hours, but current Hi-rez models suggest it will be lingering across
southern Kansas. Latest Nam/WRF and GFS both suggest some
instability with SBCAPE around 1000 j/kg with a weakly capped
environment. Not alot of forcing, but with the weakly capped
environment, suggests an isolated shower/storm or two may develop
across srn KS for the late afternoon or early evening hours during
max heating.  Given the lack of widespread forcing, think only
isolated showers/storms are the main concern.

Isentropic lift across srn OK and SW KS will increase this evening
and tonight. This mid level lift will certainly lead to increasing
mid level clouds, but may also lead to some widely scattered
showers/storms just to the west of the forecast area. If a
shower/storms can develop , the steering flow suggests that they
will drift east/southeast across portions of South Central Kansas
late tonight through early Tue morning. Not alot of elevated
instability so probably more showers than thunder. Will go with a
low pop for this chance.

Nw flow pattern will lead to another weak frontal boundary dropping
south across the forecast area during the day on Tue. Instability
will actually increase some for Tue afternoon (albeit weak) across
the eastern half of the forecast area.  Given the weak instability
and some convergence, afternoon heating may once again lead to
another isolated shower/thunderstorm chance for areas northeast and
east of Wichita. Could see this isolated shower/storm chance linger
across most of southern Kansas for Tue evening/night as well, as the
front washes out. Given bulk shear of 30-40kts a few strong storms
may be possible.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

NW flow slowly shifts east of the area for Tue night, with gradually
increasing mid level heights and a return to warmer southerly flow
for Wed into the weekend. This return moist flow will lead to
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms over the high
plains, for the late afternoon and overnight hours. Mean mid level
steering flow suggests some of this activity will drop east-
southeast into the forecast each night. Latest model consensus
pops look a tad overdone, especially during the daylight hours. So
thinking the Wed- Fri time frame will not be quite the "wash out"
that the model pops suggest, but think some widely scattered
showers/storms will be around for the overnight and morning hours.
Severe chances look fairly low given the weak shear pattern for
the end of the week, but some moderate instability may lead to a
few strong storms.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

Aviation concerns are expected to remain minimal through the next
24 hours.

Upper low continues to churn over the northern Great Lakes with
strong northwest flow in place over the northern/central Plains. A
weak cold front stretches from eastern MO into north central KS.
May see a stray shower late this afternoon with good low level
lapse rates expected, but minimal low level moisture should keep
any showers far and few between. Weak mid level warm advection is
resulting in very light showers over western KS with this activity
expected to stay west of the forecast area today. Confidence
remains high that vfr conditions will remain in place through this
TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    84  58  82  61 /  10  20  20  30
Hutchinson      81  56  81  58 /  10  20  30  30
Newton          81  57  80  59 /  10  20  30  30
ElDorado        82  58  81  60 /  10  20  30  40
Winfield-KWLD   85  59  83  61 /  10  20  20  30
Russell         78  53  81  56 /   0  20  30  20
Great Bend      80  54  81  56 /   0  20  30  20
Salina          80  54  81  57 /  10  10  40  20
McPherson       80  55  81  58 /  10  20  40  30
Coffeyville     85  58  82  61 /  10  20  20  30
Chanute         83  57  81  60 /  10  20  30  30
Iola            82  56  80  59 /  10  20  30  40
Parsons-KPPF    84  58  82  60 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...RBL


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