Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 020344
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1044 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

LOOP OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA ENDING AT
1935Z SHOWS A MESO-LOW IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THAT IS RETROGRADING
TO THE WEST SLOWLY. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EXTENDS INTO
EASTERN KANSAS AND MANIFESTS ITSELF WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS. TO THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE...ANOTHER ADVANCING SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI AND THEN INTO ILLINOIS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.

THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS WITH A TROUGH IN THE EAST
AND A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
TO KEEP THE REGION BELOW NORMAL IN TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.

IN THE SHORT TERM THROUGH MONDAY...THERE REALLY IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST. WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MEAN FLOW. SOME OF THESE MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW
STORMS TO EASTERN KANSAS. THE PREDICTABILITY WITH THESE IS QUITE
LOW. BEST CHANCE IS SUNDAY.

COOK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN THAT WE HAVE HAD DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN
SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK SHOULD PUSH
TEMPERATURES MORE TOWARD NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOWER 90S...WITH
LOWS NEAR 70S.

THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING MORE MOISTURE AND
SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. REALLY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY SPECIFIC TIMING AND
LOCATION TO STORMS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME OF THESE COULD BE
STRONG AT THIS TIME...BUT NO STRONG SIGNAL THAT WOULD INDICATE A
WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKING AT THE SHEAR
BUOYANCY COMBINATIONS.

COOK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

LATER TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THINKING ANOTHER
ROUND OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ALTHOUGH LOWER VSBYS WILL PROBABLY BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVER
SOUTHEAST KS...AND ALSO POSSIBLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG ROUGHLY THE I-135 CORRIDOR.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  88  66  90 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      63  88  65  91 /   0  10   0  10
NEWTON          65  87  65  89 /  10  10   0  10
ELDORADO        66  87  65  90 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  88  66  90 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         61  89  65  92 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      61  88  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          63  89  65  92 /   0  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       63  88  65  91 /   0  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  88  66  89 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         64  86  65  89 /   0  10  10  10
IOLA            63  86  64  89 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    65  87  65  89 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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