Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 190511
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1211 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
* Rain/storms possible (20-50% chance) south of I-70 Wednesday
  evening/night -- best chances along the OK border

* Active weather pattern beginning Saturday into next week with
  multiple rain/storm chances

* Very high fire danger possible Sunday afternoon

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

As of 245 PM Monday afternoon, a deep, midlevel trough was slowly
progressing east across the eastern CONUS with a cutoff low across
the southwest US. An area of surface high pressure was settling into
the area with light northwesterly winds at 10-15 mph ongoing. As
diurnal cooling ensues this evening, wind speeds will become light
and variable near 5 mph. The surface ridge will slide east
overnight, allowing southerly low-level flow to return. These
southerly winds will usher warmer temperatures into the area for
Tuesday. Afternoon highs are forecast to return to the 70s.

The aforementioned cutoff low across the southwest US will lift
northeastward towards the central Plains late Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Overall ascent will decrease with time as the low
will be in a decaying phase. The latest suite of ensemble guidance
continues to trend slight further south with the most likely axis of
rainfall. The best chances (up to 50%) will straddle the OK
border. A stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out with upwards of
100 J/kg of elevated instability.

For Thursday and beyond, a progressive midlevel shortwave is progged
to move through the mid/upper MO valley region Friday with an
attendant surface trough axis. A few showers are possible across
northeast to east central KS. Otherwise, the pattern becomes more-
active as a deep western trough ejects into the Plains by early next
week. This trough is likely to result in multiple rain/storm
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through
the next 24 hours.

Surface high pressure will remain extended from the Southern
Plains through the Tennessee Valley for today which will allow
for southwest winds and clear skies. A weak surface trough will
move into central KS late this afternoon and will flip winds
around to the north and northeast, but will remain on the light
side.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Fire weather concerns will remain relatively benign over the
next several days. That being said, strengthening southerly
winds up to 40 mph and mild temperatures up to 70 degrees may
create very high fire danger Sunday afternoon.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...RBL
FIRE WEATHER...BMB


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