Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 021744
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1244 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

A SMALL BUT COMPACT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OF STORMS CONTINUES TO DROP
S-SE ACROSS CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT ALONG A LINE FROM KRSL TO
KICT...WITH THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS LOCATED FROM KGBD INTO
HARPER CO. THIS COMPLEX DOES HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF COLD POOL...SO
THINK THAT THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS/GRADIENT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IF THE STORMS WILL MAINTAIN
THEIR INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE SOUTH...AS SBCIN IS A LITTLE HIGHER
AS IT MOVES INTO SRN KS. BUT AS AFTERNOON HEATING INCREASES IN
THIS AREA...THINK THIS SBCIN WILL ERODE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THIS
CONVECTION CONTINUING INTO SRN KS.

AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON...SOME
CONCERN THAT IT WILL BECOME SURFACE BASED...AS IT RUNS INTO SBCAPE
VALUES OF 3000-3500 J/KG.  SO COULD SEE STORMS BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AS ANY REMNANT MCV ROTATES ACROSS THIS AREA OF INSTABILITY.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

TODAY:
UNCERTAINTY ABOUNDS WITH SURFACE FRONT HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN KS
EARLY THIS MORNING. INITIAL THINKING IS THAT THE BOUNDARY WOULD
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH. MEANWHILE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN NEB IS
HEADED THIS WAY...BUT IS MOVING INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
AIRMASS. SUSPECT REMNANTS WILL MOVE INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF CENTRAL
KS THIS MORNING...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON COVERAGE BY/AFTER 1800 UTC.
ALSO NOT AS SURE WHERE/WHEN STORMS WOULD ERUPT ON FRONT...BUT
CURRENT THOUGHT IS THIS MAY BE IN NORTHERN OK...NOT KS AS PREVIOUS
THOUGHT...SINCE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM NEB STORMS WILL LIKELY
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN
OF LITTLE HELP...SO FORECAST BASIS IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED ON SYNOPTIC
SCALE PATTERN/ EXTRAPOLATION/EVOLUTION. TEMPERATURES EQUALLY
CHALLENGING...AND WENT WITH A CUSTOM BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT DID
WELL YESTERDAY...AND AM EXPECTING ANOTHER LATE DAY RALLY.

TONIGHT:
PRECIPITATION MAY BE MINIMAL...WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL ALONG THE
OK BORDER AT START OF THE PERIOD...AND MAYBE IN CENTRAL KS
TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRI AS MORE CONVECTION ROLLS OFF HIGH PLAINS.

FRI-SAT:
THERE WAS SOME AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY DECENT SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAXIMUM
AT 300MB FOR FRI NIGHT...BUT LOW LEVEL MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE
FORECAST AREA MAY BE WELL NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT. STRENGTH OF
DYNAMICS WILL KEEP AT LEAST SOME SMALL POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...BUT
NOT MUCH MORE AT THIS POINT. SO CALLED AIRMASS STORMS POSSIBLE ON
SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT MUCH BETTER CHANCE APPEARS AFTER 0600
UTC SUN...WITH GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION ADVECTION PATTERN TO
SUSTAIN A HIGH PLAINS MCS ROLLING ACROSS CENTRAL KS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FORECAST THIS PERIOD IS QUITE PROBLEMATIC. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE
BEEN STRUGGLING WITH LONGWAVE PATTERN TRANSITION...WHICH WILL
LIKELY PERSIST INTO THIS PERIOD. NEXT ADD IN NIGHTLY MCS POTENTIAL
AND RESULTANT BOUNDARIES AND IMPACT ON SYNOPTIC SCALE FRONTS.
THEN FINISH IT OFF WITH SURFACE BOUNDARY POTENTIALLY IN THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH ARE NOTORIOUSLY TOUGH TO FORECAST IN JULY AS
THEY RUN INTO THE UPPER RIDGE. INITIALIZATION GRIDS AND CONSENSUS
ARE FOLLOWING THE LATEST RUN/CONVECTIVE BULLSEYES. WOULD HAVE
PREFERRED TO TEMPER THAT FORECAST WITH ONLY LOWER END CHANCE
POPS...WITH A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED NOCTURNAL BIAS. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS AT THIS TIME.

EXPECT THIS IMPULSE TO KEEP THE SHOWERS/STORMS GOING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  SO WILL GO
WITH PREVAILING VCTS FOR MOST TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THINK THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES...WITH VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  EVEN WITH THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION AROUND THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    87  70  88  69 /  60  30  20  20
HUTCHINSON      84  69  88  65 /  70  20  20  10
NEWTON          84  69  85  68 /  60  20  20  20
ELDORADO        84  69  87  66 /  50  30  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   89  70  89  68 /  40  30  30  20
RUSSELL         83  67  88  65 /  70  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      83  68  88  65 /  70  20  20  10
SALINA          83  68  86  67 /  70  20  20  10
MCPHERSON       83  69  86  66 /  70  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     87  70  85  66 /  30  40  30  30
CHANUTE         84  68  83  66 /  30  30  30  20
IOLA            83  68  82  66 /  30  30  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    85  69  85  65 /  30  40  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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