Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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941
FXUS63 KICT 231157
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
657 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Forecast highlights: excessive heat today and possibly Sunday, a
return to more seasonable temperatures next week, periodic
thunderstorm chances through next week beginning this evening.

Cannot rule out a few stray showers/thunderstorms early this
morning generally along/north of a line extending from Great Bend
to McPherson to Cottonwood Falls. However, brunt of activity
should remain north of I-70.

Otherwise, one more day of intense heat expected. Dewpoints
should dry out a few degrees compared to yesterday and low-level
thickness values decrease a bit, so temperatures and heat indices
may not be quite as high as yesterday, but still expecting
widespread 105+ heat indices. A slight cool down expected for
Sunday as the ridge begins to flatten and a cold front approaches
from the north. May need to continue heat headlines over mainly
southern/southeast KS with expected heat indices around 105
degrees. Readings cool down even more for Monday into the low-mid
90s given influence of Canadian high pressure impinging from the
north and potential for increased clouds.

Thunderstorm-wise, anticipating isolated to widely scattered
storms to fire across northwest KS this afternoon evening along
the lee trough/approaching cold front, with this activity possibly
encroaching upon locations generally northwest of Great Bend to
Salina this evening/overnight. Main threats will be strong wind
gusts. Thinking somewhat higher probabilities for thunderstorms
will be Sunday afternoon-night mainly northwest of the KS
Turnpike, as frontal forcing increases in response to Canadian
high pressure approaching from the northwest. Weak flow aloft
should preclude widespread severe storms, although a few
strong/severe storms are possible given the unstable airmass. The
front should wash out/dissipate by Monday, but any residual
frontal and/or convective outflow convergence zones could serve as
a focus for a few hit-or-miss storms Monday afternoon-night
areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Medium range model consensus and associated ensembles support the
upper ridge continuing to flatten and retrograde to the western
CONUS next week. This should allow the jet stream and associated
various wobbly frontal zones to shift further south closer to the
Kansas region, supporting periodic thunderstorm chances through
the week. Given the increased flow aloft amidst a likely unstable
airmass, at least a few bouts of strong/severe storms and locally
heavy rain are probable across the region. Additionally, decreased
atmospheric thickness and the potential for cloud cover should
knock temperatures down closer to seasonal averages in the low-mid
90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

VFR forecast at all sites throughout the period. KRSL/KSLN are in
the warm air advection north of a very sharp 700MB ridge axis
running roughly east/west across the mid of the forecast area.
This will likely keep vcsh going for a few more hours at both
KRSL/KSLN, but expect the precipitation to wane over the next
couple hours. Models have not had a good handle on this
precipitation so far. Outflow from showers/thunderstorms will
likely affect KRSL/KSLN/KGBD into the late morning, but expect
return flow everywhere by midday. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT   104  76 100  75 /  10   0  20  30
Hutchinson     105  76  99  73 /  10  10  20  40
Newton         103  76  98  74 /  10  10  20  40
ElDorado       100  76  98  75 /  10   0  20  30
Winfield-KWLD  102  76 100  76 /   0   0  10  20
Russell        104  73  96  70 /  20  20  30  40
Great Bend     105  74  98  71 /  20  10  30  40
Salina         103  77  99  74 /  30  10  30  40
McPherson      104  76  98  73 /  10  10  20  40
Coffeyville    100  76  99  75 /   0   0  10  20
Chanute         98  75  98  75 /  10   0  10  30
Iola            98  75  97  74 /  10   0  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    99  76  98  75 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-
033-047-048-050.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...PJH



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