Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 192055
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
255 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Low level moisture will continue to slowly increase tonight with
continued southerly flow. Low clouds across the Lower Mississippi
Valley and Southern Plains will build north impacting much of
southeast KS tonight. Breezy southerly flow and clouds will allow
for mild Jan minimum temperatures that may stay above 40 for some
locations across southeast KS while lows fall into the upper 20s
across our central KS counties.

Another mild day is anticipated across the area on Saturday, however
pesky low clouds may inhibit rising temperatures across much of
southeast KS.

As a vigorous mid/upper trough moves over the Southern Rockies Sat.
night, a cold front is progged to move south bisecting central KS
during the overnight hours. The NAM is much more aggressive driving
the front and associated cold air south when compared to the GFS
while the ECMWF appears to be more of a compromise. This should
result in a wide range of temperatures Sat night into early Sun. As
the pbl moistens late Sat night into early Sun morning we may see
some areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle across portions of central
KS. Large-scale forcing for ascent will increase as we move through
the day and into the evening hours on Sunday as the mid/upper trough
emerges from the Rockies with more widespread precipitation arriving
Sunday evening. Although the bulk of heavier snow is expected to
remain north and west of the forecast area, we may easily see 1-2
inches across Russell and perhaps Lincoln county before precipitation
diminishes from west to east early on Monday. We may also see
some elevated storms impact portions of southeast KS Sunday
afternoon and evening, however better chances for deep moist
convection will remain well south of the area.

Strong northwest winds will usher in cooler air in the wake of
the system on Monday with more seasonable highs in the 40s
anticipated. A wind advisory may be needed for much of the area if
current model trends persist.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 251 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Mild and dry weather conditions are anticipated as we move through
the week with moderating temperatures. Well above normal
temperatures are expected to return by Thu with highs in the mid
and upper 50s. Another storm system is progged to move into the
Rockies toward the end of the period bringing increasing chances
for precipitation and some cooler air to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Through the remainder of today, expect southerly winds and VFR
conditions at all area airports. During the early morning hours of
Saturday, a rapid increase in low-level moisture is expected in
southeast Kansas, which should drop cloud ceilings into the IFR
and eventually LIFR category at CNU. MVFR ceilings are also
likely to spread far enough westward to affect ICT and potentially
HUT, though exactly how far west the low cigs push is the main
uncertainty in the forecast at this point. Central Kansas
airports (RSL, GBD, and SLN) should maintain VFR cigs through the
18Z TAF period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    35  57  41  58 /   0  10  10  20
Hutchinson      33  53  35  53 /   0  10  10  30
Newton          35  53  39  55 /   0  10  10  30
ElDorado        37  54  41  58 /   0  10  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   37  60  44  62 /   0  10  10  20
Russell         27  54  28  41 /   0   0  20  50
Great Bend      25  54  30  43 /   0   0  20  40
Salina          31  49  32  49 /   0  10  20  40
McPherson       32  52  34  52 /   0  10  10  30
Coffeyville     38  56  47  65 /  10  10  10  40
Chanute         37  53  44  62 /  10  10  20  40
Iola            36  52  43  61 /  10  10  20  40
Parsons-KPPF    37  55  46  63 /  10  10  10  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...TAV



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