Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 301737
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1237 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
PERSISTENT THIS MORNING...EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY CENTRAL KS...INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KS...NORTHEASTWARD INTO EASTERN NE.
THEY ARE BEING SUSTAINED BY MODEST/STRONG 800-600MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITHIN A ZONE OF RICH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS GIVING A GLANCING BLOW AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE NORTHEAST. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY TO PERHAPS MID-AFTERNOON AS IT
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE-QUARTER INCH.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...IN A ZONE OF WEAK/MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG
A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WEAK CONVERGENCE AND
LACK UP UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH STRENGTH OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
FEW STRONG STORMS.

ADK

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS NEBRASKA...WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AHEAD OF THE WAVE MOVING EASTWARD. EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING AND IT COULD
LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE
310-315K LAYER PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE...A SECOND
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER OREGON WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY AND REACH WESTERN KANSAS BY THIS EVENING. THIS
NEXT WAVE COULD SPARK OFF RE-NEWED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN MATERIALIZE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SECOND WAVE WHICH SHOULD GENERATE MORE
ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS FOR CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG
STORMS.

A THIRD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY AND DEEPEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS...WHICH WILL THEN SWEEP
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE DAY...BUT THE FOCUS WILL SWITCH TO THE AFTERNOON WHERE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGHER DUE TO RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THE KEY WILL BE IF WE CAN SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TO HELP BOOST INSTABILITY EVEN MORE. STORMS SHOULD FIRE
WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL KANSAS...COULD ALSO SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE BUT CONVERGENCE IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED. ONCE
STORMS DEVELOP GIVEN THE EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE
IN COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA. THE ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. THERE COULD BE A CHANCE FOR MORE
STRONG/SEVERE OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON DEPENDING
ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME SETTING UP OVER CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING DRIER COOLER AIR INTO KANSAS FOR
FRIDAY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...SHOWERS SHOULD EXIT NORTH/NORTHEAST OF
SLN BY 19-20Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...DENSE MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL
GRADUALLY SCT OUT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS. NOT
ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE...ALTHOUGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS
IN ALL TAFS EXCEPT CNU BY 00-03Z. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE SOME DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL JET
INCREASES. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE STORMS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    85  65  87  64 /  20  50  30  50
HUTCHINSON      82  64  86  61 /  40  50  30  50
NEWTON          83  65  84  62 /  30  60  40  50
ELDORADO        84  65  86  63 /  20  50  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   87  66  86  65 /  20  40  50  50
RUSSELL         79  59  80  55 /  60  40  30  50
GREAT BEND      80  60  80  56 /  60  40  30  40
SALINA          80  63  84  60 /  60  50  40  60
MCPHERSON       81  64  84  61 /  50  60  40  50
COFFEYVILLE     86  65  86  67 /  10  40  50  60
CHANUTE         85  64  85  66 /  10  50  60  60
IOLA            85  64  85  66 /  10  50  60  60
PARSONS-KPPF    86  65  86  66 /  10  40  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$





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