Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000
FXUS63 KICT 211739
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue early this morning, for
areas mainly east of the KS turnpike.  This large area of convection
is right along the 850-700h baroclinic zone, aided by the right exit
region of the upper level jet currently moving across the southern
Great Lakes.  Expect this area of showers and embedded thunderstorms
to continue across southern KS for a good portion of the morning
hours as this first wave and jet streak shifts east of the area.

Another stronger impulse currently moving across the Rockies will
rapidly move out into the plains for later today into this
afternoon/evening, with lift associated with this shortwave leading
to showers and embedded thunderstorms becoming more widespread
across the area for the afternoon into this evening. Already seeing
signs of this second system, with showers/storms increasing across
the TX panhandle. Left front quad of this approaching system will
lead to very efficient rainfall across most of the area later
today, which may lead to periods of heavy rainfall, with the
heaviest rainfall amounts expected late this afternoon, especially
for areas from Wichita east to Chanute. Fairly impressive
effective shear (60- 85kts) as this system moves across, but
better instability for a severe storm chance remains well south of
the forecast area. So could see a few strong storms along the
KS/OK border, as strong effective shear/steep lapse rates lead to
a few strong updrafts, but think the main severe chance will stay
well south of the area. Some of the latest Hi-Res models suggest
that a large bowing segment will move across OK this afternoon.
Plan on keeping the areal flood watch as is, as some areas may see
an additional 1 to 2 inches of QPF as this secondary system moves
across, which could lead to some minor flooding of low lying
areas and creeks and streams.

The widespread showers and embedded storms will lead to a cool temp
day, with temps struggling to make it out of the middle 50s with
east to northeast surface flow.

The rapid progression of the shortwave will lead to most of the
showers and embedded storms shifting to the east, as this evening
progresses, with some areas across Central KS actually picking up
their rainfall late this evening as the main trowal axis moves
across Central KS.

The rain will gradually taper off early Saturday morning over
southeast Kansas. Expect a coolish weekend as a weak upper level
ridge moves across the area with north-northeast surface flow. Main
surface ridge axis looks to move across the forecast area on Sunday
morning, which may lead to some patchy frost over Central Kansas.
But expect a pleasant weather day on Sunday with light winds and
seasonal temps.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 322 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Zonal flow will lead to dry and warm conditions for the start of the
work week.  Low level moisture will be slow to return, with a weak
shortwave moving across the northern plains, leading to cold front
sagging south across the area for Tue. Not expecting alot of shower
activity as this front pushes south, as better moisture will remain
to the south of the area.  Medium range models suggest flow will
gradually shift to more of a W-SW flow pattern by the middle of next
week, which will lead to thunderstorm chances increasing for
Wed/Thu as low level moisture quality improves.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

A line of showers/storms will slide east of southeast Kansas this
afternoon, however should see more activity re-develop over
western Kansas and move into central Kansas for this afternoon and
evening. This precipitation will move slowly eastward into
southeast Kansas for tonight. Cloud heights will drop with the
next round of precipitation and should begin to scatter out late
tonight for central Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  44  58  39 /  90  90  20   0
Hutchinson      51  42  59  37 /  70  90  20   0
Newton          51  42  57  37 /  60  80  30   0
ElDorado        52  43  57  38 / 100  80  30   0
Winfield-KWLD   53  44  58  39 / 100  80  20   0
Russell         52  41  60  37 /  80  60   0   0
Great Bend      50  40  59  36 /  80  80  10   0
Salina          54  43  61  38 /  70  70  10   0
McPherson       52  42  59  37 /  70  80  20   0
Coffeyville     56  46  57  40 / 100  80  30  10
Chanute         53  44  56  39 / 100  90  40  10
Iola            53  44  56  39 / 100  90  40  10
Parsons-KPPF    54  45  56  39 / 100  80  40  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ069>072-083-092>096-
098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...CDJ



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.