Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 181152
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
552 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 343 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Forecast Headlines/Highlights:
1) Red Flag Warning is being issued for all of central KS as well
as for Reno, Harvey, Greenwood & Woodson counties from noon until
6 PM CST today.

2) Wind Advisory is being issued for all of central & south-
central KS from 9 AM to 6 PM CST.

Today:
No doubt the greatest concerns are an extreme grassland fire
danger that`ll equally, no doubt, be exacerbated by strong S-SW
winds. A pronounced surface trough that has been situated along
the Front Range during the night will continue to strengthen in
response to a nearly stationary mid-level shortwave situated over
the Central & Southern Rockies. This would produce strong S-SW
winds that`ll easily reach a sustained 30-40 mph from mid-morning
until late this afternoon across central & south-central KS.
Although the strengthening surface trough will advect increasing
moisture into KS as the day progresses, the strong S-SW winds will
strongly elevate the grassland fire danger. For further details,
please refer to the ."Fire Weather..." section that appears at the
end of this discussion. The strong S-SW winds have also prompted a
Wind Advisory for all of central and south-central KS as well as
part of southeast KS (Greenwood County) from from mid-morning
until early this evening.

Tonight-Tue Night:
Precipitation is continuing to draw the greatest attention. An
upper-deck trough that is forecast to cross the Pacific Coast late
tonight will intensify greatly as it moves SLOWLY east across the
Southern Rockies from late Mon night thru Tue night. This would
prolong warm, moist advection, especially across southeast KS, Mon
and Mon night. A cold front is scheduled to arrive central KS Mon
afternoon but with the upper-deck wave stalling over the Rockies,
the front would likely stall in a NE-SW manner close to the KS
Turnpike Mon night. Showers & thunderstorms would therefore
increase considerably, especially across southeast KS. The mid-
upper wave will begin to lift E/NE across KS Tue afternoon & Tue
evening, thereby pushing the cold front across the remainder of
the forecast area on Tue. As the front crosses the KS/MO border
Tue evening all precipitation occurring across southeast KS should
end around mid- night Tue. The onsetting cold advection should
induce a changeover from light rain to wintry mix late Tue night,
however the duration of the wintry mix would be short-lived.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 343 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Precipitation (light snow), may return to southeast KS Wed
afternoon but with a fairly progressive pattern would be short-
lived. A series of weak mid-level shortwaves that`ll scoot E/NE
across the Great Plains should bring more chances for light
precipitation Thu night. The chances really ramp up late Thu
night & this time would extend across central & south-central KS.
Precipitation type becomes an increasing challenge late Thu night
but at this time the greatest potential for a wintry mix, with a
changeover to light snow, would occur across central & south-
central KS. Precipitation type would quickly change back to light
rain on Fri. Some light rain remains possible Sat & Sat night but
the chances are low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 549 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

Winds will be the main story for the first half of the forecast.
Some low level wind shear is forecast early this morning until
stronger winds aloft mix to surface. Low level moisture will be on
the increase this evening with MVFR ceilings probably developing
before midnight across southern sites. IFR ceilings will likely
develop after midnight in those areas. High resolution models
suggest IFR/LIFR would develop this evening, but track record this
winter has been about 50/50 on these forecasts. Front will
approach KRSL/KGBD/KSLN towards end of the period. -Howerton

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 343 AM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

An extreme grassland fire danger will exist across all of central,
most of south-central KS, and part of southeast KS today. South-
southwest winds that will greatly increase to 25-35 mph, with
40-45 mph gusts, are the primary determinant for issuing a Red
Flag Warning that`ll be in effect from noon until 6 PM CST. All
burning is to be avoided!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    65  53  67  40 /   0  10  30  70
Hutchinson      67  50  59  31 /   0  10  10  50
Newton          64  51  61  34 /   0  10  30  70
ElDorado        63  52  66  41 /   0  20  40  80
Winfield-KWLD   64  55  70  46 /  10  20  30  80
Russell         72  37  42  20 /   0  10  10  10
Great Bend      72  42  47  22 /   0  10  10  20
Salina          68  46  49  26 /   0  20  20  40
McPherson       67  49  55  29 /   0  10  10  50
Coffeyville     62  54  68  57 /  10  40  60  90
Chanute         62  53  66  51 /   0  50  50  90
Iola            62  52  65  50 /   0  40  50  80
Parsons-KPPF    62  54  67  54 /   0  50  60  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for
KSZ032-033-047>053-067-068-070-071.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...EPS



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