Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 200837
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
337 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY ACROSS NEBRASKA TO NE CO.
ACROSS KS SOUTHERLY 5-15 MPH WINDS PREVAIL WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS OVER
SOUTHEAST KS WHERE AREAS OF LIGHT FOG ARE OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM LOWER 70S IN CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS TO THE UPPER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

THIS MORNING:
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF INDEPENDENCE WHERE VISIBILITIES WERE BRIEFLY AT
1/4 VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY 2-3 MILES
& WITH VISIBILITIES IMPROVING AT INDEPENDENCE HAVE CANCELLED THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY THAT HAD BEEN IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AS WINDS ARE SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO DUE SOUTH & WILL SLOWLY INCREASE.

REST OF THE WEEKEND:
PRIMARY FOCUS IS THUNDERSTORM-RELATED. A MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE THAT IS
MOVING SE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY &
ACCELERATE AS IT SURGES ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THEN
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUN. THIS WOULD DRIVE THE COLD FRONT SE
TOWARD KS TONIGHT WITH THE FRONT DECELERATING AS IT MOVES THROUGH
CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT AS THE GREATEST ACCELERATION OF THE MID-UPPER
WAVE WOULD BE WELL TO THE NE OF KS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN & CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON &
TONIGHT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS INCREASING OVER NORTHEAST KS & NORTHERN
MO, AS SUCH A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP AREAS ALONG & NE OF A
LINE FROM KSLN-KCNU. AS THE FRONT RESUMES ITS S/SE TREK TOWARD...THEN
ACROSS...THE KS OK BORDER THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD
LIKEWISE SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER SUN MORNING AS AN
INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTH ACROSS KS. AS SUCH RAINFALL
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS SHOULD END BY MID-MORNING ON SUN.
SUN NIGHT WOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR & COOL AS SURFACE HIGH INCREASES
INFLUENCE.

MON & MON NIGHT:
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE WESTERN KS MON AFTERNOON &
SPREAD E TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS MON NIGHT
AS THE NEXT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGS FURTHER S ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

WITH STRONG(!) UPPER-DECK HIGH PRESSURE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DECELERATE BEFORE MOVING NE AS
IT CROSSES KS. THIS WOULD KEEP ALL OF KS IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT. AS
SUCH PERIODIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NEIGHBORHOOD FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK-WEEK. INSTABILITY IS
LACKING & AS SUCH THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD NOT ACHIEVE SEVERITY. FRI & FRI
NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY...BUT THESE PERIODS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE COVERED IN
GREATER DETAIL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS: DENSE FOG IN SOUTHEAST KS OVERNIGHT...AND TSRA
POTENTIAL SATURDAY EVENING.

FOG WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND BECOME DENSE IN SOUTHEAST
KS OVERNIGHT...WITH DECOUPLED...MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL IMPACT THE CNU TERMINAL WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PRONGED TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND ANY LINGERING FOG/STRATUS SHOULD BURN
OFF TOWARD MID-LATE MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL KS SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY/WEAK SHEAR COULD
LEAD TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA WHICH COULD IMPACT RSL AND SLN
TERMINALS FROM 00Z TO 06Z.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    90  66  80  55 /  20  40  20  10
HUTCHINSON      90  64  78  54 /  20  50  10  10
NEWTON          89  64  78  53 /  20  50  10  10
ELDORADO        90  65  80  54 /  20  40  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   90  66  82  56 /  20  40  30  10
RUSSELL         90  59  77  52 /  20  30   0  10
GREAT BEND      90  62  77  53 /  20  40  10  10
SALINA          90  62  79  53 /  30  30   0  10
MCPHERSON       90  62  78  53 /  20  40   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     89  66  80  56 /  10  30  20   0
CHANUTE         88  65  79  54 /  20  40  10   0
IOLA            87  65  78  54 /  20  40  10   0
PARSONS-KPPF    89  65  80  55 /  20  30  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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