Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 061816
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1216 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THE NEXT 7 DAYS: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TODAY- SUNDAY...VERY WINDY SUNDAY- MONDAY...COLDER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY...WARMING TREND TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

FULL SUNSHINE AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S MOST AREAS TODAY...ALTHOUGH COOLER
READINGS ARE EXPECTED OVER SNOW COVERED AREAS OF CENTRAL/NORTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...RESULTING
IN STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. NOT EXPECTING COLDER AIR TILL
MONDAY THOUGH...WHEN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S-40S. VERY STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...LIKELY EXCEEDING
ADVISORY CRITERIA GIVEN DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND MIXING. COULD
SEE POCKETS OF SNOW FLURRIES MONDAY...ESPECIALLY FLINT HILLS ON
EAST.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A WARMING TREND IS LIKELY FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND...AS THE DEEP
EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LIFTS OUT...AND UPPER RIDGING APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY...WITH READINGS OVER
SOUTHERN KANSAS POSSIBLY APPROACHING THE 60S WED- THU.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DEPARTING THE
ARKLATEX REGION WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AN INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS WILL COMMENCE
LATE SUN MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE
MVFR LEVELS. WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW
SUN MORNING WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE BY 17Z SUN.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S-
40S PERCENT WILL SUPPORT VERY HIGH TO MARGINALLY EXTREME GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGHEST VALUES WILL BE DURING
THE AFTERNOON BOTH DAYS. CONTEMPLATED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH...BUT
SINCE VALUES JUST BARELY TOUCH THE EXTREME/CRITICAL
THRESHOLD...DECIDED AGAINST IT. NEVERTHELESS...OUTDOOR BURNING
SHOULD BE AVOIDED BOTH DAYS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  31  52  28 /   0   0  10   0
HUTCHINSON      55  30  50  27 /   0   0  10   0
NEWTON          52  31  50  27 /   0   0  10   0
ELDORADO        51  32  52  27 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  31  53  28 /   0   0  10   0
RUSSELL         44  28  43  25 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      48  29  45  25 /   0   0  10   0
SALINA          53  31  48  27 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       53  30  49  27 /   0   0  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     52  31  54  30 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         51  32  52  29 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            50  31  52  28 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    51  31  53  29 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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