Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 261921
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
221 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Elevated storms quickly developed early this afternoon in an area
of strong 850-700mb moisture transport. Around nearly the same
time surface based storms developed west of our forecast area on
the more traditional dryline. Large scale lift provided by
approaching shortwave is allowing for much more widespread
convection compared to the last couple of days.

With extreme instability, any storm that goes up will have a good
chance of producing very large hail. Surface flow today is
stronger than last couple of days along with deep layer shear
being more robust. Therefore, any surfaced based storm this
afternoon or evening will have a chance to produce a tornado with
a enhanced risk closer to the warm front/outflow, where winds will
be slightly more backed, resulting in strong low level shear.
Through 2pm, tornado threat is being mitigated by storms
interfering with each other. Going to need a storm to be more
isolated to get a longer lived tor this afternoon/evening.

Also ran with a flash flood watch through Fri afternoon with
several rounds of storms expected and grounds already saturated.
Should also see rivers continue to flood along with additional
rivers going into flood.

As the overnight hours progresses the more widespread convection
should push east and northeast on the better 850-700mb moisture.
Storms still look like a good bet for Fri as the upper wave takes
its time lifting across KS. What is left of the dryline looks to
still linger along the SW fringes of the forecast area by Fri
afternoon and may provide a focus. In addition, large scale lift
will be much better than the last few days which may allow storms
to more freely develop in the very unstable airmass. Severe storms
will be possible with any storms that develop Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 221 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

By 18z Sat, the upper wave will be lifting over northeast KS
which will push the better convective chances north and east of
the forecast area. Still not out of the question to get some
storms to develop late Sat night across the southern and southwest
portions of the forecast area as the better 850mb moisture starts
to roll back to the northeast. Confidence in rain chances starting
Sun is very low as we get broad sw flow aloft. While both GFS and
ECMWF agree on a northern stream shortwave tracking across the
northern Plains, they disagree on the timing, with the ECMWF
faster compared to the GFS which leads to low confidence. There is
still some suggestion that a weak impulse will track across
OK/southern KS Mon into Mon evening which may result in some
elevated rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 704 AM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Convective potential is the the main concern today. Anticipate
improving conditions to VFR at all sites early this morning through
early this afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop just to
the west of the KHUT/KGBD/KRSL Taf locations late this afternoon/
early this evening near a dryline/outflow boundary. Think some of
the convection could be strong/severe near KHUT and KGBD so added a
tempo group for some gusty winds and moderate TSRA. Could also see
some convection reach KICT so will include VCTS for this site as
well.

Expect the dryline convection to evolve into a forward propagating
complex storms tonight, so will keep VCTS going overnight.

Ketcham


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    85  66  80  61 /  50  40  40  30
Hutchinson      85  65  80  59 /  60  50  40  30
Newton          84  66  79  61 /  60  60  50  40
ElDorado        84  67  78  62 /  60  50  50  40
Winfield-KWLD   85  66  80  63 /  50  30  40  30
Russell         85  62  81  57 /  50  70  40  30
Great Bend      86  62  81  57 /  50  60  40  30
Salina          85  65  80  58 /  60  70  50  40
McPherson       85  65  80  59 /  60  60  50  40
Coffeyville     84  67  77  65 /  50  40  50  40
Chanute         84  68  76  65 /  50  50  50  50
Iola            84  67  76  64 /  50  50  60  50
Parsons-KPPF    84  67  77  65 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH



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