Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 161751
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1251 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT 26 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
40 KNOTS HAVE RESULTED IN AN EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
FURTHER WEST TO INCLUDE LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
SALINA TO WICHITA TO WELLINGTON THROUGH 6 PM. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 2 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

TODAY: A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP PUSH A SFC TROUGH ACROSS KS
TODAY...WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY
INCREASING THE SURFACE WINDS. 850H WINDS AROUND 50-55KTS WILL
MIXING DOWN TO SURFACE AS MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASES FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS...AS LAPSE RATES INCREASE WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE.
SO SOME GUSTS TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE...BY AROUND 16Z. SO WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO CRITICAL GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER VALUES...SO WILL ALSO GO WITH A RED FLAG WARNING (SEE
FIRE SECTION BELOW) FOR THE SAME AREA AS THE WIND ADVISORY.

TONIGHT-THU: ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THU. LATEST MODEL TRENDS
HAVE BEEN TAKING THIS IMPULSE FURTHER SOUTH WITH EACH RUN AND ALSO
NOT PULLING IN AS MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS PREVIOUS RUNS WOULD
SUGGEST. CURRENT NAM/WRF AND GFS ACTUALLY KEEP LOWER LAYERS FAIRLY
DRY ACROSS CENTRAL KS...WITH MEAGER MOISTURE RETURN OVER SRN KS.
SO WILL CUT BACK ON POPS IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH MOISTURE
LACKING. THINK CENTRAL KS MAY ONLY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AT BEST.
WILL KEEP A SOLID CHANCE POP GOING ACROSS SRN KS FOR NOW...BUT
THINK THIS AREA MAY ONLY SEE VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS.

FRI: WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR FRI...WITH WINDS
EVENTUALLY RETURNING TO THE WEST BY THE DAYTIME HOURS ON FRI. THIS
WILL LEAD A NICE DOWNSLOPE DAY ON FRI...WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK
TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...FOR SAT INTO SUN.  MOISTURE RETURN
ISNT TOO GREAT FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SAT...BUT JET STREAK IN THE
MID LAYERS MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS FOR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT
NIGHT...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE PLAINS COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THIS JET.  SO SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR SAT NIGHT
INTO SUN LOOK REASONABLE.

DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN FOR THE START OF THE
WEEK...AS RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 40
KNOTS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
BECOMING NORTHEAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
CEILINGS IN THE 6-10K FT RANGE WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT/TOWARD MORNING
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

STRONG AND GUSTY SW WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A MAJOR GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON. SW WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH AND GOOD
MIXING WILL LEAD TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS FOR AREAS EAST OF THE KS
TURNPIKE. THIS WILL LEAD TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
VALUES...FROM 9AM TO 6PM. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THIS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  42  55  38 /  10  30  60   0
HUTCHINSON      71  39  56  38 /  10  30  50   0
NEWTON          68  39  55  38 /  10  20  50   0
ELDORADO        68  41  55  38 /  10  20  50  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  43  56  39 /  10  30  60  10
RUSSELL         69  36  57  36 /  10  20  10   0
GREAT BEND      70  36  57  36 /  10  20  20   0
SALINA          72  37  56  37 /  10  20  20   0
MCPHERSON       70  38  56  37 /  10  20  30   0
COFFEYVILLE     67  42  58  42 /  10  10  60  20
CHANUTE         67  42  55  39 /  10  10  60  20
IOLA            66  41  54  39 /  10  10  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    68  42  57  40 /  10  10  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ049-051>053-
068>072-083-092>096-098>100.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ052-053-
069>072-093>096-098>100.

&&

$$







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