Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 281653
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS CONTINUE TO PUSH TEMPS
TOWARDS THE MID-UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG I-70.  INSTABILITY IS
STARTING TO INCREASE ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WITH SBCAPES
CLIMBING INTO THE 1500 J/KG RANGE.  EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO CONTINUE
TO DROP SOUTH...THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS
PUSHING IT TO AROUND HIGHWAY 54 BY THIS AFTERNOON.  DO SEE
CONVERGENCE INCREASING AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...BUT A WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROBABLY KEEP
CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN CHECK FOR MOST OF THE AREA...EVEN WITH THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT. THINK AN ISOLATED STORM MAY DEVELOP FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE TURNPIKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS CAP WEAKENS THE
MOST IN THIS AREA AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES. BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE
THAN A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP AS HEATING INCREASES.

IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP...THERE COULD BE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR
TWO...WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-35
KTS. GIVEN THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...A SOUTHWARD MOVING SUPERCELL
CHANCE EXISTS...WITH MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW- LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT A
HOT AND BREEZY DAY TODAY. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-135.
WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS.

OTHERWISE...SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH...REACHING
ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 50 OR KS TURNPIKE CORRIDORS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. STRONG HEATING IN CONCERT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
NEAR 60F...GIVEN THE STRONG FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO BREACH THE CAP FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE FRONT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. MODEST TO POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST (AT BEST) INSTABILITY...LIMITING
UPDRAFT/STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR
OWING TO PRONOUNCED VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WONDERING IF THE GREATER
COVERAGE WILL BE FROM FAR EASTERN KS ON EAST WHERE BETTER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RESIDES. DESPITE THE DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...HAIL
SIZE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED SOME DUE TO CONCERNS EXPRESSED
ABOVE...ALTHOUGH LARGE LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURE- DEWPOINT SPREADS
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ACTIVITY
SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A TAD MONDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH. MAY SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT BACKDOORS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND STALLS
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE FROM MID WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH A STOUT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS...AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ACROSS THE KANSAS REGION...AS A HANDFUL OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS PROGRESS SOUTHEAST OVER MID-
AMERICA IN THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE WARMEST DAY
FROM MID-WEEK AND BEYOND WILL LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY...WITH READINGS
WELL INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE UPPER 80S-LOW 90S SHOULD PREVAIL LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND LOWER
ATMOSPHERIC THICKNESS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 541 AM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE INTO KRSL/KSLN
MIDDAY...KHUT/KICT LATE AFTERNOON...AND DIFFUSE PASSAGE EARLY
THIS EVENING AT KCNU. MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE IS A BIT MARGINAL...
SO BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE AT KCNU WITH LESSER CHANCES AT
KICT/KHUT. CHANCES AT KSLN/KRSL ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION DUE TO THE
EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE. -HOWERTON


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    97  66  93  68 /  30  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      98  61  93  65 /  10  10   0   0
NEWTON          96  64  91  67 /  20  10   0   0
ELDORADO        94  64  90  66 /  30  30   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  67  93  68 /  30  30   0   0
RUSSELL         97  61  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      97  62  94  65 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          96  63  93  66 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       97  62  93  65 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     91  66  91  67 /  30  40   0   0
CHANUTE         91  64  89  65 /  40  40   0   0
IOLA            90  64  89  65 /  40  40   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    91  65  91  65 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.