Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 080533
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1133 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 923 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Had to make some drastic changes to overnight lows, as light winds
clear skies and the ridge axis moving overhead has led to temps
dropping like a rock late this evening, with optimal radiational
cooling conditions. Already see some locations in central KS fall
into the teens! Current dewpoints suggest temps may even fall a
little farther before leveling off after midnight, as a wind shift
to the west-southwest moves over the area and cloud cover over NW KS
increases. This will lead to some weak warm advection early Fri
morning and nearly steady or slowly rising temps.

A mid level shortwave is still progged to move southeast across the
area early Fri morning. The warm advection and isentropic lift
associated with it may lead to a 2 to 3 hour period of snow flurries
moving across portions of central KS between 09-12z/Fri. think most
of the flurries will stay to the north of highway 50.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 331 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Upper level trough axis will slide southeast across the region today
with associated surface high. Meanwhile mid-level clouds currently
northwest of Kansas will spread into Kansas for late tonight and
Friday morning. Models show some isentropic lift in the 285K-290K
layer with this cloud deck behind the upper trough. This lift
will generate a weak attempt for some saturation to try and work
its way downward, possibly giving way to snow flurries for Central
Kansas late tonight/early Friday morning. Otherwise weather
conditions will continue to remain dry with a warming trend in
store for the weekend, especially on Sunday with daytime highs in
60s likely due to favorable downslope effects.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Models in good agreement with a northwest upper level flow regime
persisting across Central United States. Confidence is high that dry
weather will prevail across Kansas with this pattern. Daytime
temperatures will be a bit above normal with no significant cool
downs expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1132 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Some mid-level
cloud cover is expected to spread southeastward into central Kansas
overnight or certainly by early Friday morning. Mid level saturation
looks to increase enough for possibly some very light snow flurries
or virga to move across portions of central KS for the 09-12z/Fri
time frame, as saturation in the mid layers tries to work its way to
the surface. At this point looks more like virga than flurries, but
will keep a flurries mention in for now. If any flurries do develop,
not expecting any restrictions to visibilities or lowering of the
cigs below VFR.

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 331 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2017

Northwest winds will increase behind the surface trough across
central Kansas for Friday afternoon. The combination of dry air and
gusty winds will create very high grassland fire danger levels.
Very high grassland fire danger levels are expected for the entire
area Monday afternoon, as strong northwest winds combine with
warmer dry air.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    11  48  27  50 /   0  10   0   0
Hutchinson       8  49  27  50 /  10  10   0   0
Newton          11  46  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
ElDorado        13  46  26  47 /   0  10   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   14  48  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         10  50  26  51 /  10  10   0   0
Great Bend      10  50  26  51 /  10  10   0   0
Salina          12  48  27  48 /  10  10   0   0
McPherson        9  48  26  48 /  10  10   0   0
Coffeyville     13  45  25  47 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         15  43  26  44 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            14  43  26  43 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    14  45  25  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...CDJ



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