Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 171729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1229 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND CONTINUED WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP HIGHS FROM REACHING 50 ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO LOWER
MAXES AND TO INCREASE POPS AS LIGHT RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
SPREADS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

TODAY: CURRENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN KS
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION TODAY. THIS
COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER SURFACE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY
TODAY...AS A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES MOVES EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS...MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE TOP OF
THE SHALLOW COOL AIR...WITH A 600-700H BAROCLINIC ZONE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THIS IMPULSE AS IT MOVES ACROSS OK.
SOME DIFFERENCES ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS THIS
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES ACROSS...AS SATURATION INCREASES IN THE MID
LAYERS...BUT THIS AIR WILL BE FIGHTING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS DRIER AIR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY PRECIP THAT ACTUALLY REACHES THE
GROUND...BUT MID LEVEL LIFT AND SATURATION WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS SRN KS BETWEEN 12-18Z. NOT
EXPECTING VERY HIGH QPF AMOUNTS...AS MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...BUT PROBABLY MORE OF A HIGH POP...LOW QPF AMOUNT TYPE OF
EVENT WITH HIGHEST POPS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54/400. EXPECTING QPF
AMOUNTS MAINLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH...IN THE HEAVIEST
BAND.

FRI: A NICE SPRING DAY LOOKS ON TAP FOR FRI...AS WEAK RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL
KS BY FRI AFTERNOON...AS LEE SIDE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. BUT SEASONAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

SAT-SUN: THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST US
INTO THE PLAINS FOR SAT INTO SUN. THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE DEEPER
AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST THAN TODAYS SYSTEM WHICH WILL ALLOW
MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE PLAINS WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING FIRST OVER
CENTRAL KS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH THIS SHOWER CHANCE
INCREASING FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SBCAPE VALUES...INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR SAT AFTERNOON. NOT ALOT OF SHEAR...SO
POSSIBLY ONLY A FEW STRONG STORMS.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN...AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA...INCREASING LIFT ACROSS THE AREA...FOR A WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR SUN.  SHEAR AGAIN ISNT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...SO MORE OF A GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WITH
GOOD SOAKING RAINS.

MON-WED: WEAK RIDGING LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS BOTH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST US. THIS WILL BRING SW
FLOW OVER THE AREA...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR TUE INTO
WED...SO CONSENSUS IS TO TWEAK TEMPS UP FOR BOTH TUE INTO WED.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL
INCREASE FOR WED FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH 20-21Z BEFORE VFR
RETURNS. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE RETURNING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT THU APR 17 2014

LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
WARMING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WITH VERY HIGH GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER FORECAST IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    47  36  71  51 /  80  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      51  34  71  51 /  80   0   0   0
NEWTON          49  34  70  50 /  70  10   0   0
ELDORADO        49  35  70  50 /  70  10   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   52  36  72  51 /  70  10   0   0
RUSSELL         54  36  72  52 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      52  35  71  52 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          54  35  72  52 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       53  34  70  51 /  20   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     58  35  71  48 /  60  20   0   0
CHANUTE         52  35  71  47 /  60  20   0   0
IOLA            50  34  71  48 /  60  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    56  35  71  48 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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