Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 202329
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
629 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH THE FOCUS
SHIFTING EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE MONDAY. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AT < 0.20 INCH. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
TROUGH WILL SET IN MONDAY PM/EVE ALLOWING FOR CLEARING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING SPREADING OVER
THE AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 70S AND FULL SUNSHINE.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS TUESDAY...IS PROGGED
TO EJECT OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A DRYLINE WILL TAKE SHAPE FROM WESTERN KS DOWN INTO THE
EASTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES...WITH MID 50S DEWPOINTS SURGING NORTHWARD
EAST OF THE DRYLINE ON STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. A WIND ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED WEDNESDAY IN MUCH OF THE AREA. A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS PROGGED EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH MLCAPES OF
AROUND 1500 J/KG. 45-55 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.
UPPER FORCING AND LOW-LEVEL DRYLINE CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT
FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
WESTERN KS INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS GIVEN WESTERLY 40-45 KNOT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VECTOR ALIGNMENT. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS WED EVE...WITH
STORMS BECOMING ELEVATED BY 03Z. SEVERE THREAT MAY WANE BY THE TIME
IT REACHES SOUTHEAST KS AS INSTABILITY DIMINISHES.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA THURSDAY
WITH THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT CLEARING SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY 18Z. THE
TRAILING FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING
THE WESTERN STATES. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND...DRAWING
POTENTIALLY RICH GULF MOISTURE/INSTABILITY NORTHWARD INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE BY SUNDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FLOAT OVERHEAD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS POSSIBLY MOVING
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOUTH WINDS WILL BRING
RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO KANSAS LATE TONIGHT WITH IFR CIGS
LIKELY. MEANWHILE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO
MISSOURI BY MONDAY MORNING WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN COULD DEVELOP
JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOW CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL BE HIGH TO VERY HIGH IN CENTRAL KS BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGEST
CONCERN FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO
45 MPH WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY IN LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WEDNESDAY WILL BE AROUND 40%.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  76  48  76 /  40  40  10   0
HUTCHINSON      57  77  46  77 /  40  30   0   0
NEWTON          57  76  47  75 /  40  40   0   0
ELDORADO        58  74  48  75 /  40  40  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  74  49  76 /  40  40  10   0
RUSSELL         56  77  43  77 /  40  20   0   0
GREAT BEND      55  78  43  78 /  40  20   0   0
SALINA          58  76  46  76 /  40  30   0   0
MCPHERSON       57  76  46  76 /  40  30   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     60  74  51  74 /  60  60  20   0
CHANUTE         59  73  48  73 /  60  60  20   0
IOLA            59  73  50  72 /  60  60  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    60  74  48  73 /  60  60  20   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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