Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 212334
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
534 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 222 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

A shortwave trough moving over the Northern Plains will drive a
subtle frontal boundary south across portions of Northern KS on Wed.
South of the front, temperatures will climb into the mid and upper
70s with light SSW winds. This could result in a couple of record
highs temperatures across the area.

Well above normal temperatures will continue into Thu before the
next storm system impacts the area late in the period. The latest
model trends are keeping the mid/upper trough north of the area with
large-scale forcing for subsidence across much of KS and pops were
trended down with this forecast Thu night into early Fri.

Temperatures on Friday will return to more seasonable values in the
wake of the front with afternoon readings ranging from around 40
across Central KS to the mid 50s across Southeast KS.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

A progressive mid/upper flow regime will prevail at the start of
the period with seasonably cool temperatures on Sat. Afternoon
temperatures are expected to top out in the mid to upper 40s for
most locations. Temperatures will begin to moderate on Sun with
breezy southerly winds helping to drive temperatures into the 50s.
Uncertainty increases as we head into early next week but above
normal temperatures are expected to prevail for the beginning of
the week. Another more vigorous storm system is progged to move
into the Rockies toward the end of the period. This system may
bring increasing chances for precipitation and another surge of
cooler air as we head towards the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 529 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

VFR conditions will prevail for all TAF sites across central and
southern Kansas for the next 24hrs. Light southerly winds will
switch to the northwest across central Kansas Wednesday morning
with southwest winds across southern Kansas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Breezy south to southwest winds will combine with above
normal temperatures creating a very high grassland fire danger
across much of the area on Thursday afternoon. An approaching cold
front will shift winds to the northwest during the evening hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 357 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Wed 2/22/17 Record Highs:

Wichita: 87 In 1996
Russell: 77 In 1982
Salina:  76 In 1982
Chanute: 80 In 1996

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    42  77  48  73 /   0   0  10  10
Hutchinson      42  76  45  69 /   0   0  10  10
Newton          43  75  47  70 /   0   0  10  10
ElDorado        43  78  47  73 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   43  78  49  76 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         41  77  42  64 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      40  78  42  66 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          44  77  46  66 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       41  76  45  68 /   0   0  10  10
Coffeyville     42  78  50  77 /   0   0   0  10
Chanute         43  77  49  74 /   0   0   0  20
Iola            43  77  48  73 /   0   0   0  20
Parsons-KPPF    44  78  50  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MWM
LONG TERM...MWM
AVIATION...CDJ
FIRE WEATHER...MWM
CLIMATE...MWM



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