Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 212036
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
336 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

A trough is situated from Hudson Bay and stretching southwest to
the Plains. This trough will move southeast tonight into Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

There has break in the rainfall across most of eastern Kansas.
The next round on the wrap around from the low is beginning to
move in and will continue to so this evening into overnight.
Additional rainfall totals could amount to 0.5 of an inch to 1.5
inches with the higher values possible in southeast Kansas. Since
the rainfall amounts across most of the areas in the Flood Watch
have not panned out as high as initially expected, most of the
counties were taken out of the watch. Counties in the furthest
southeast corner of the state have had decent rainfall totals with
an inch since 7am this morning in a couple of locations with over
2 inches in roughly the last 12 hours. Thus the watch was
maintained for these areas despite minimal reports of flooding in
all but Cherokee County so far. Please see the Flood Watch
statement for further details. This next round will go through
fairly quickly with models in their reflectivity fields
indicating a complete exit of the state late tonight.

The remainder of the weekend is fairly quiet other than low
temperatures on Saturday night into Sunday morning dropping to the
upper 30s. Given the warm spring and planting that has occurred
already, the patchy frost was maintained in the grids. A gradual
warming trend is in store through the weekend into the start of
next week.

Another trough will move in from the Rockies on Monday into
Tuesday. Increased wind speeds on Monday are going to be the main
part of this time period. The CONSMOS does indicate higher wind
speeds than the rest of the models which is not surprising as it
has done so for most of the spring and had a better handle on such
days.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

A more pronounced trough is anticipated to move through on
Thursday into next weekend which would bring a better chance for
thunderstorm activity. This system is peaking the interest meter
somewhat with a surge of instability and moisture transport values
on Thursday according to both the GFS and ECMWF. Bulk shear is
higher for Friday night. However, it is still far too early to get
excited about the potential for anything.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

A line of showers/storms will slide east of southeast Kansas this
afternoon, however should see more activity re-develop over
western Kansas and move into central Kansas for this afternoon and
evening. This precipitation will move slowly eastward into
southeast Kansas for tonight. Cloud heights will drop with the
next round of precipitation and should begin to scatter out late
tonight for central Kansas.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 324 PM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

A Flood Watch remains in effect across the furthest southeast
corner counties of Kansas given the higher rainfall totals of
roughly two inches in the last 12 hours. Additional rainfall
could very well bring flooding to these areas. The rivers and the
creeks are on the rise with flooding anticipated specifically on
the Neosho River. If you encounter flooded roadways, remember to
Turn Around Don`t Drown.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    44  56  38  67 /  70  20   0   0
Hutchinson      42  56  37  68 /  80  20   0   0
Newton          42  55  37  66 /  80  30   0   0
ElDorado        44  56  38  67 /  80  30   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   44  55  38  68 /  50  20   0   0
Russell         41  59  37  70 /  80   0   0   0
Great Bend      40  58  36  70 /  80  10   0   0
Salina          44  59  38  69 /  80  10   0   0
McPherson       42  56  37  67 /  80  20   0   0
Coffeyville     46  54  39  68 /  70  30  10   0
Chanute         44  54  39  67 /  80  40  10   0
Iola            44  54  38  67 /  80  40  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    45  53  39  68 /  80  40  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ095-096-099-100.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VJP
SHORT TERM...VJP
LONG TERM...VJP
AVIATION...CDJ
HYDROLOGY...VJP


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