Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 231758
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1258 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1101 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Showers and storms producing heavy rain continue over south
central KS and are expected to continue for at least the next few
hours. Decreased high temps today where rain is expected to
persist the longest.

The MCV over eastern OK along with the one that tracked into
eastern KS has helped maintain the tight mid level baroclinic zone
over the western portion of our forecast area. In addition, it
appears the outflow/gravity wave that is pushing south across
west-central KS has helped focus the convection over south central
KS. Lack of shear should keep the main threat heavy rain and
localized flooding which we are already seeing in urban areas.

Did go ahead and knock down highs today for the areas that are
expected to see rain the longest. However, didn`t go too crazy yet
as we are still in the low/mid 60s even with the heavy rain. So
won`t take much sun at all to get into the 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Forecast Highlight: Severe thunderstorms possible thru Wed.

An upper-deck low set up camp over the SE Alberta/SW Saskatchewan
during the night. The upper low will remain nearly stationary
over this region while an upper-deck trof strengthens from MT to
the SW CA coast. This would keep the sfc low positioned over
primarily SE CO & NE NM. This would continue to enable RICH
moisture to stream N across all of KICT Country. With little
change in the overall pattern am having doubts the dry line will
make much progress east with the boundary positioned over the
Southwestern Plains. The dry line may begin to push E on Tue,
perhaps extending from just N of KDDC to W TX Tue Afternoon &
Evening. A fairly well-defined axis of extreme instability will
continue to reside from Srn Nebraska, thru the Wrn half of KS &
OK, to W TX. Deep-layer directional shear is impressive acrs
nearly all of KS but with 6-KM bulk shear most pronounced from Wrn
KS to along the NM/TX border the greatest risk for supercells
would remain in these areas today & Tue, although the severe
threat should spread slowly E toward Central KS Tue & Wed. For our
CWA the greatest threat would be large hail, likely golfballs,
with the threat greatest Tue Afternoon & Evening as well as Wed
Afternoon & Evening. During these periods a few tornadoes may
occur along the Wrn corridor of our forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Medium range models agree fairly well with upper pattern through
Friday, pushing a compact shortwave E that`ll reach Nebraska & Wrn
KS Fri Afternoon & Evening. They still diverge on Sat with the GFS
a bit faster the NE lift of the shortwave, placing it over the ND/
MN border Sat Afternoon whereas the NAM only lifts it to Ern SD.
Unfortunately the surface dryline/front position remains nebulous
at best. Regardless, continued unsettled and stormy weather will
continue at most locations for most periods. The inherited
forecast has been kept intact.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon May 23 2016

Main aviation concern will be storm chances for the remainder of
the afternoon and again tonight.

Storms developed early this morning along and east of a tight mid
level baroclinic zone with outflow/gravity wave helping focus
storms over south central KS as it pushed south. Current thinking
is that storms are done this afternoon for KRSL-KSLN-KHUT-KGBD
with KCNU just now getting in on the action and will have storm
chances for much of the afternoon. KICT should see another hour of sct
storms but the bulk of it should be over.

Late afternoon and early evening surface based storms should
develop west of the forecast area with low confidence in this
activity making into central/south central KS. Feel the more
likely scenario would be for another round of elevated convection
after 03z...with central KS looking to have the better chances.
But that far out, won`t get too specific with an area. Should also
see some mvfr ceilings move back in later tonight. Models were
hinting at some IFR levels but confidence is not that high yet to
insert into TAFS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    76  68  83  68 /  90  40  50  30
Hutchinson      77  67  84  68 /  20  40  40  30
Newton          75  67  82  68 /  60  40  50  30
ElDorado        75  68  82  68 / 100  40  50  30
Winfield-KWLD   77  68  82  68 / 100  40  40  30
Russell         80  64  84  68 /  20  50  40  30
Great Bend      81  64  85  68 /  20  50  40  30
Salina          78  66  83  69 /  20  40  50  50
McPherson       77  66  83  68 /  20  40  50  30
Coffeyville     79  67  81  69 /  40  30  40  30
Chanute         79  67  81  69 /  40  30  40  30
Iola            79  67  81  69 /  50  30  50  30
Parsons-KPPF    79  67  81  69 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RBL
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...RBL



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