Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47
000
FXUS63 KICT 190910 CCA
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
357 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Forecast Headline: The Red Flags are hoisted for all of South-
Central & much of Central KS from 1-7PM Today.

Today:
A broad but intense mid-upper trof is moving east across Southern
Canada on "schedule". At 3 AM CDT, the trof was crossing the
Alberta/Saskatchewan border. As it continues to move east, lower-
deck troffing will stretch from the Northwestern Plains to the TX
Panhandle. This will induce strong warm advection on the strength
of S-SW winds that`ll flirt with Advisory criteria in most areas.
Both will combine to send the Grassland Fire Danger soaring, with
GFDIs likely reaching the lower-mid 70s across South-Central & much
of Central KS. As such, the Red Flags are being hoisted for all of
these areas. With highs from the mid 80s to around 90 records will
be set in most areas. A warm front draped across Nrn OK has produced
a sharp moisture gradient. Dewpoints across Southern KS are only in
the lower-mid 30s whereas south of the boundary mid 50s-lower 60s
cover OK. With the front lifting slowly north an isolated
thunderstorm is still possible over Southeast KS early this morning.

Tonight-Mon:
The afore-mentioned mid-upper trof will send a weak "cold" front
SE toward the CWA. With the mid-upper trof crossing Ontario, the
front will decelerate as it moves deeper into KICT Country. The
front is likely to stall close to the KS/OK on Mon. This`ll cause a
fairly sharp temperature gradient with OK-bordering areas likely to
reach the lower-mid 80s. More record highs are likely, especially at
KCNU. There`ll be enough moisture to warrant a continued 20-30% PoP
assignment Mon Night, but with lift lacking, only light rain would
result.

Tue & Tue Night:
With a modest zonal regime dominating the Great Plains on Tue the
front will remain positioned across OK but enough moisture may
spread across KS to prudes scattered light rain. All will be quiet
Tue Night as an amplifying mid-upper ridge will move east across the
Northern & Central Plains Tue Night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Wed-Fri:
Rain & thunderstorm chances will increase considerably as a deep
mid-upper trof moves east across the Rockies Wed Night/early Thu
Morning. The greatest chances for thunderstorms would occur from
Thu thru Fri, several of which may reach severity. The increasing
southerly winds will present a pronounced grassland fire danger
Thu Afternoon.

Next Weekend:
All should be quiet as a broad mid-upper ridge spreads east over
the Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Scattered-broken VFR clouds will affect the region overnight. A
period of MVFR or even IFR is possible late tonight into mid-
morning Sunday, as low-level moisture continues to increase from
the south. However, do not expected widespread/prolonged low
conditions. Additionally, a few showers/thunderstorms are
possible late tonight into Sunday morning over far eastern
Kansas. Covered this threat with VCSH at Chanute for the time
being. Otherwise, strong/gusty south winds will develop by late
morning/early afternoon Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

An Extreme Grassland Fire Danger will exist across all of South
Central & much of Central KS today as increasing S-SW winds to
around 25 mph with 30 to 35 mph gusts couple with a deepening dry
airmass to produce hot & windy weather across KS. A Red Flag Warning
is in effect from 1-7PM CDT. A Very High Grassland fire danger for
the rest of the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

Record Highs for March 19th:

Wichita: 91 In 1907
Russell: 83 In 1972*
Salina:  86 In 1907*
Chanute: 83 In 1995*

*Denotes record high will likely be set.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    88  57  84  51 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      89  53  81  47 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          88  56  82  48 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        87  58  84  51 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   88  59  86  54 /   0   0   0  10
Russell         90  49  74  41 /   0   0   0  20
Great Bend      92  49  77  42 /   0   0   0  20
Salina          89  53  76  45 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       89  54  79  45 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     84  63  87  55 /  10   0   0  10
Chanute         83  61  85  54 /  10   0   0  10
Iola            83  61  85  52 /  20   0   0  10
Parsons-KPPF    84  62  86  55 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ049>053-067>070-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...ADK
FIRE WEATHER...EPS
CLIMATE...EPS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.