Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 010923
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
323 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

...Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 246 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Water vapor imagery shows upper low situated over the Great Lakes
with additional shortwave energy over the Pacific NW with more
about to come onshore. At the surface, high pressure is situated
over the Arklatex region as the strong cold front has pushed well
into the Gulf.

Conditions today and Fri will be very similar to what we`ve had
the last few days, with seasonal temps and dry conditions as weak
high pressure briefly affects the Plains. By Fri night, there is
good model agreement that potent shortwave energy will dig over
the desert sw and eventually over Baja. Ahead of this system
increased isentropic lift will bring widespread precip to the
southern Plains Fri night into Sat with some of this moisture
creeping into the forecast area. For the Fri night-Sat time frame we
are looking at very light precip amounts. Southern KS will have
the best chance to see more than a trace but in these locations
thermal profiles are not that favorable for accumulating snow. So
while a few flakes can`t be ruled out late Fri night into Sat
morning, doesn`t appear we are looking at accumulating snows.

Just like the previous model runs suggested, moisture will quickly
be shunted east with only se KS having small precip chances by Sat
night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

ECMWF has now come around to the slower GFS solution with regards
to the eastward progression of the closed low. This feature looks
to lift out across the southern Plains Mon, bringing precip
chances back into the forecast for Mon afternoon and Mon night.
With the exception of central KS which may see a few flakes mixed
in, the majority of the precip should fall as light rain.

Attention will then turn to yet another piece of energy set to
carve out a robust trough over the Great Basin and Rockies Tue
into Tue night. This feature will push a strong cold front across
the area Tue night into Wed morning with what looks like a polar
airmass to follow. Precip will also be possible near or behind the
front Tue night into Wed morning with the airmass cold enough for
some wintry precip. The fast eastward progression of this system
should keep it from being a significant winter event, outside of
the coldest air of the season so far.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 323 AM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Quiet VFR conditions the next 24 hours with light winds. Mid and
upper level clouds will be on the increase this morning around
15,000 ft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  28  52  34 /   0   0   0  40
Hutchinson      50  25  50  31 /   0   0   0  40
Newton          49  27  49  31 /   0   0   0  30
ElDorado        50  29  51  33 /   0   0   0  30
Winfield-KWLD   53  29  53  35 /   0   0   0  40
Russell         48  21  48  28 /   0   0   0  30
Great Bend      49  22  48  28 /   0   0   0  40
Salina          49  23  50  29 /   0   0   0  20
McPherson       49  24  49  30 /   0   0   0  30
Coffeyville     52  31  54  36 /   0   0   0  30
Chanute         51  29  52  34 /   0   0   0  20
Iola            50  29  51  33 /   0   0   0  20
Parsons-KPPF    51  30  53  36 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ADK


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