Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 211741
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1141 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Main frontal boundary has been slow to make it into SE KS early
this morning, with surface dewpoints in the lower 40s leading to
areas of dense fog for SE KS. Feel this fog chance will be short
lived, as drier air begins to push into SE KS as the frontal
boundary makes its way into SW MO. So will keep the dense fog
advisory for SE KS into until 14z, but could see this fog lift
before then. Will keep an eye on morning trends.

Zonal progressive flow will lead a couple of more well above
normal temp days for Today through Wed, as W-SW flow leads to good
downslope conditions. This will lead to max temps almost 20-25
degrees above normal with very dry conditions expected. (see fire
weather section below) Could even see some temps come close to
record numbers for portions of Central KS on Wed.

Another shortwave moving across the northern plains on Wed
evening will help drive a cold front into portions of North
Central Ks for Wed night. This will lead to slightly cooler temps
for Thu for portions of Central KS, with temps south of the
stalled frontal boundary remaining well above normal.

Models continue to show a shortwave is expected to come out of
the Rockies for Thu, with a low pressure area developing over KS
for Thu afternoon. The ECMWF and GFS differ on the path of this
low pressure area, with both models showing the stalled frontal
boundary in Central KS pushing gradually back into Neb as a warm
front. ECMWF seems to be the most consistent with the lows path
across srn KS, but the GFS is further north with its path across
nrn KS. Both solutions suggest that most of the precip with this
system will remain across the northern half of KS with any kind of
wintry precip staying in Neb or IA.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

As the shortwave pushes east on Fri, colder air on the backside
of this system, will plunge south across most of the forecast area
for Fri/Sat, with more seasonal type temps values in the middle
40s for highs and middle 20s for lows.

Medium range models continue to flip flop on how the end of the
weekend will play out. Both models seem to agree that the cool
down, back towards normal will be short lived, with a warming
trend for Sun and Mon. Earlier solutions seem to suggest another
shortwave would move across the area on Sun, but the latest model
trends shear this shortwave out with alot less moisture return
than previously thought. So will remove pops for Sat and Sun.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Excellent WX for all areas thru 22/18Z & lkly byd with W-NW winds
sustained 13kts or less that`ll become lgt & vrbl tws sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 314 AM CST Tue Feb 21 2017

Good downslope flow from the West and Northwest will lead to very
dry conditions and well above normal temps Today through Wed.
Relative humidity levels may fall into the upper teens both days
across Central KS, which will lead to an elevated fire danger,
with very high grassland fire danger values expected.

Ketcham

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 357 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Feb 22 Record Highs:

Wichita: 87 In 1996
Russell: 77 In 1982
Salina:  76 In 1982
Chanute: 80 In 1996

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    72  44  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      73  43  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          71  44  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        71  44  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   71  44  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         76  42  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      75  42  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          74  44  76  43 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       73  42  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     73  43  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         72  43  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            72  43  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    72  43  76  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham
CLIMATE...Ketcham



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