Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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038
FXUS63 KICT 222321
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
621 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Tonight through Tuesday:

A vort lobe over eastern Colorado this afternoon, will lift
northeast over Nebraska/Kansas Tonight into Tuesday. Increased
southerly flow and moisture transport will occur on the leading edge
of a 45-50 knot 850 mb jet into central/eastern Kansas overnight
into midday Tuesday. The lift from the vort lobe and moisture
advection should result in at least widely separated
showers/thunderstorms late tonight into Tuesday. This convection
should edge eastward into Iowa/Missouri during the afternoon. Other
strong-severe surface-based storms should develop in the
afternoon/evening hours along the cold front in central/eastern
nebraska. Further southwest, isolated storms may form along the lee
tough axis from southwest through north-central Kansas, given strong
heating and sufficient low-level convergence can occur. There
would be a conditional threat of strong-severe wind/hail if storms
were to develop. Will keep a 20% chance of storms in Tuesday night
with a high precipitable water axis in place, although much better
storm chances are expected to the northeast over the Corn Belt
where the strongest moisture/temperature advection is progged.

Wednesday-Thursday:

An upper low will move eastward across southern Winnepeg into
western Ontario, allowing a slow-moving cold front to drop southward
through Kansas. This front is progged to reach far southern Missouri
into northern Oklahoma by early Thursday evening before stalling.
This front will settle into a very moisture rich, unstable airmass
across the region. In addition, several vort lobes will be
embedded within the broad southwesterly monsoonal fetch over the
Central Plains. Potentially more than 1 round of thunderstorms may
affect the area during this two day period. Some of the storms
could be strong to severe with locally heavy rainfall,
particularly Wednesday afternoon/evening, then again Thursday
afternoon in the southern counties. Expecting mainly multicell
linear and cluster modes, given strong instability, copious
moisture, frontal convergence and 25-35 knots deep layer shear.
Locally heavy rainfall/flooding will likely be the biggest threat
however, especially Wednesday night with some storm
training/mergers possible, and the right-rear quadrant of an upper
jet streak affecting the region.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

The GFS, GEFS, and ECMWF keep the front stalled over northern
Oklahoma Friday, before lifting it north of the region as a warm
front Friday night into Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms will still
probably be around Friday-Friday night. Will carry lesser probabilities
(20-30%) Saturday through Monday with a weak, broad moist
southwesterly flow aloft progged on the western periphery of the
southeastern CONUS upper high center. Temperatures look to cool
below average behind the cold front Friday, then gradually modify
to seasonal levels by Sunday/Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Low level clouds are expected to develop across the region later
tonight as richer gulf moisture streams northward into area. Could
also see some thunderstorms move into central Kansas late tonight
from western Kansas. Otherwise the low clouds will linger through
the morning hours and scatter out from west to east during the day
on Tuesday. Southerly winds will be on the increase especially for
the late morning and afternoon hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  89  74  91 /  20  20  20  40
Hutchinson      69  91  73  90 /  20  30  30  50
Newton          69  87  73  89 /  20  30  20  50
ElDorado        69  87  73  90 /  20  30  20  40
Winfield-KWLD   70  88  74  93 /  20  30  20  30
Russell         68  93  69  84 /  20  20  20  50
Great Bend      68  94  70  85 /  20  20  20  50
Salina          70  91  73  86 /  20  30  30  50
McPherson       69  91  72  88 /  20  30  30  50
Coffeyville     69  87  74  93 /  30  50  10  30
Chanute         69  86  74  91 /  30  50  20  30
Iola            70  85  74  90 /  30  50  20  30
Parsons-KPPF    69  84  73  92 /  30  50  20  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...CDJ



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