Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251724
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1224 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

An upper low over northeast Oklahoma early this morning, will
slowly eject eastward today, reaching central Missouri by 06Z
tonight. A few small clusters of showers should linger mainly to
the east of I-135 today, as vort lobes pinwheel around the upper
low circulation. The cyclonic low-mid level height field curvature
should allow low clouds to hang tough over central/eastern Kansas
today, and therefore, have reduced high temperatures accordingly.
Low clouds may linger tonight with possible stratus build-down,
according to a consensus of short range model data. This seems
plausible with a lack of a mechanism to scour the boundary layer
moisture out beneath a temperature inversion around the 800 mb
level.

The next upstream upper trough approaching southern California,
per 6.5 um water vapor imagery, will dig into the desert southwest
today, then ejecting across the south-central Plains Sunday into
Sunday night. A consensus of model guidance has the warm sector
staying just south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border. However, fairly
strong 850 mb moisture transport with marginal elevated
instability targets south-central and southeast Kansas. Combined
with moderate- strong ascent with the upper trough, this should
result in a fairly widespread convective rainfall occurring mainly
in the south. A few rain showers could linger in the east Monday
morning, with dry weather expected Monday afternoon and night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

The next in a series of upper troughs is progged to be digging
over the Southern Rockies Tuesday, before moving slowly eastward
across the Central/Southern Plains Tuesday night through Thursday.
The ECMWF and Canadian appeared to have better recent continuity
and agreement with this system compared to the 00Z/25th
deterministic GFS. The slower and deeper look to this upper trough
should provide a good chance for a widespread convective rainfall
event across much of Kansas. Locally heavy rainfall appears
possible. Seasonal late March temperatures are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Large cloud shield associated with low pressure continues across
the region. Ceilings were mostly around 1000ft, with some lower
cigs being observed along and north of I-70. A few showers have
developed across southeast Kansas.

The system will gradually exit to the east this evening. This will
produce good conditions from I-35 west for fog development.
Expecting areas of fog with vsbys around 3 miles. Could be locally
dense down to 1/2 mile.

Confidence in fog is pretty high, just how low the vsby will go is
still rather uncertain at this time given clouds, etc. Conditions
become VFR by 15z across the area.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Mar 25 2017

Grassland fire danger will range from moderate to high, during
mainly the afternoon hours today through Monday. The next weather
system will move through the Southern Plains late Sunday through
Sunday night, with a good possibility for fairly widespread
convective rainfall in the south, with slightly lesser
probabilities in the north.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    50  39  70  48 /  60   0  30  80
Hutchinson      50  37  68  46 /  50   0  40  80
Newton          49  38  66  46 /  60   0  30  80
ElDorado        52  40  68  48 /  60  10  30  80
Winfield-KWLD   53  39  72  50 /  60   0  30  80
Russell         52  35  64  42 /  10   0  50  60
Great Bend      53  35  65  42 /  10   0  60  70
Salina          48  37  65  45 /  60  10  30  70
McPherson       49  36  67  45 /  60   0  40  80
Coffeyville     56  42  72  51 /  60  10  10  80
Chanute         54  42  69  50 /  60  20  10  80
Iola            53  43  67  49 /  60  20  10  80
Parsons-KPPF    55  42  71  51 /  60  20  10  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...KRC
FIRE WEATHER...JMC


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