Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 202033
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
233 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Water vapor imagery shows one impulse lifting over se ND with
another upper circulation lifting over west-central KS. Meanwhile,
stream of strong jet energy remains over southern CA. Messy
surface pattern with broad area of low pressure across the central
Plains with a weak low center over sw KS with another over far
eastern KS.

Will continue with some fog starting this evening over central KS
and will expand to cover all of south central KS later tonight.
This will be more of the radiational variety compared to the
stratus build down of last night. Confidence is high that we are
not looking at a widespread dense fog event like last night due
mainly to light west/sw winds which is not ideal for dense fog.

Next shortwave will move across the southern Rockies Sat and out
into the southern Plains Sat night. There is decent model
agreement that the surface low will track across OK with southern
KS in the wrap-around region of this fast moving system. Any
precip associated with this wave will fall as rain.

As far as temps go, well above normal readings are expected for
Sat with 60s possible for parts of southern KS. While a slight
cool-down will be on tap for Sun, temps will still be well above
normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Pattern will remain progressive with another potent shortwave
forecast to move out into the Plains for Monday night into Tue
night. There is good model consensus that the surface low will
track along or just south of the KS-Nebraska border Tue. This
would place the best snow chances north of our forecast area,
mainly over Nebraska with far northern KS getting in on some of
the snow. So at this point not expecting much of an impact on
central or eastern KS as far as precipitation goes. Confidence is
high in a cooling trend behind this system, which is expected to
last through Fri. While we are not expecting any kind of arctic
outbreak, we will see below normal temps for the first time in a
while.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1141 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

Widespread IFR/LIFR and low visibilities were rapidly improving
through the late morning hours and this trend will continue into
early afternoon when VFR will return from south to north across
the area. Some patchy fog may redevelop tonight although a light
westerly wind should limit the coverage.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    34  59  38  53 /   0  10  20   0
Hutchinson      34  56  35  52 /   0  10  20   0
Newton          34  57  36  50 /   0   0  20   0
ElDorado        34  59  37  52 /   0   0  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   36  60  39  53 /   0  10  30  10
Russell         31  53  31  51 /  20  10   0   0
Great Bend      32  53  32  51 /  10  10  10   0
Salina          32  55  33  51 /  20   0  10   0
McPherson       34  55  34  51 /  10   0  10   0
Coffeyville     41  62  42  54 /   0   0  50  20
Chanute         38  60  39  52 /   0  10  30  10
Iola            38  60  39  51 /   0   0  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    40  61  41  53 /   0  10  40  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...MWM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.