Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 191745
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1245 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

TODAY:
WINDY & WARMER WEATHER REMAINS SLATED FOR ALL AREAS AS COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING OCCURS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTH WINDS ACROSS
CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS MAY FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT HAVE
CHECKED SWING AS INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS MAY PREVENT MAXIMUM MIXING
POTENTIAL FROM BEING REALIZED.

TONIGHT-MONDAY:
THE AFORE-MENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW ARDUOUS PROGRESS AS A
STRONG MID-LEVEL "KICKER" IS LACKING. AS SUCH THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
NOT EXPECTED TO ENCROACH UPON CENTRAL KS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT
MAY EVEN STALL IN A NE-SW MANNER FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. AS SUCH HAVE LIMITED ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
RUSSELL...BARTON & LINCOLN COUNTIES. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY & SUNDAY
NIGHT IS GETTING A BIT CHALLENGING AS NEARLY ALL FACETS OF FORECAST NO
DOUBT HINGE ON E/SE OF THE MID-LEVEL TROF & ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE
SLOW E/SE TRANSLATION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DICTATES LOWERING POPS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TO SLIGHT CHANCES. IT APPEARS THE WEAK MID-LEVEL
TROF MAY MAKE SUFFICIENT EASTWARD PROGRESS TO SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
EAST ACROSS MOST OF KS SUNDAY NIGHT AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROF...THOUGH WEAK...MAY INDUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
THE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROF BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE
BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST KS ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AS A MUCH STRONGER
MID-UPPER TROF UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TUE NIGHT. THIS WOULD INDUCE THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE TO SHARPEN.
AS SUCH ALL TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD TUE & TUE NIGHT. AS THE
INTENSIFYING CYCLONE VENTURES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SOUTHERLY
LOWER-DECK FLOW WILL LIKEWISE INCREASE MARKEDLY TO INJECT RICH MOISTURE
ACROSS KS. WITH A STRONGER COLD FRONT SURGING SE ACROSS KS WED NIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE WED & WED NIGHT.
SINCE THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS & ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH
RESPECT TO TIMING HAVE KEPT CHANCES CONSERVATIVE...FOR NOW. THE END OF
THE WORK-WEEK SHOULD BE NICE AS WEAK RIDGING SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

LEE LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WILL MAKE FOR A TIGHTENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT
WEAKENING OF THE GRADIENT TONIGHT. STRONG MIXING WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 35-40 KNOTS IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...DECREASING IN SPEEDS SOME.
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MIDDAY
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

JMC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 KNOTS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER
THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF
THIS AREA. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF AROUND 35% ARE
FORECAST. THE FIRE DANGER SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 00
UTC/20TH THIS EVENING AS WINDS SUBSIDE. INCREASED CLOUD
COVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY WITH LESSER
WIND. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE FIRE DANGER CONFINED TO THE HIGH
CATEGORY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  57  76  58 /   0  10  50  60
HUTCHINSON      80  57  75  56 /   0  10  60  60
NEWTON          78  57  74  55 /   0  10  50  60
ELDORADO        77  58  75  56 /   0  10  40  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   78  58  76  56 /   0  10  40  60
RUSSELL         81  57  74  56 /  10  30  60  50
GREAT BEND      79  56  73  54 /   0  20  60  50
SALINA          82  61  77  55 /   0  10  60  60
MCPHERSON       80  58  75  55 /   0  10  60  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  56  77  59 /   0   0  20  60
CHANUTE         76  56  76  58 /   0   0  20  60
IOLA            76  56  76  58 /   0   0  20  60
PARSONS-KPPF    77  56  76  60 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$








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