Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 300455
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS OCCURRING FROM THE EASTERN
SEGMENT OF THE OK PANHANDLE TO EXTREME NORTH TX EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING E & WILL THEREFORE REMAIN WELL TO THE SW
OF KICT COUNTRY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES & A LIGHT GENERALLY EASTERLY WIND
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 80S WITH PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST KS IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
1) MODERATE & PERHAPS HEAVY RAINS TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
2) RECORD COOLEST HIGHS ARE LIKELY IN WICHITA TOMORROW.

TONIGHT-TOMORROW NIGHT:
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES VERY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WOULD INDUCE WEAK LOWER-DECK FRONTOGENESIS FROM
SOUTHWEST KS TO WESTERN OK. THE RESULTING 850-MB THETA-E ADVECTION FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE/WESTERN OK BORDER IS STRONG & WITH A COMPACT REGION OF
INCREASING LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE PANHANDLES...EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE CERTAIN. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED (ESPECIALLY OVER KICT COUNTRY). AS
SUCH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL KS WOULD BE
ISOLATED. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL KS
WITH 3-HOURLY VALUES BETWEEN 3.0 & 3.5 INCHES. AS SUCH CHECKED SWING ON
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE. WITH THE WEAK E/W ORIENTED MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SINKING DUE SOUTH TOWARD THEN ACROSS THE RED RIVER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WOULD LIKEWISE GET FORCED SOUTH OF
THE NEIGHBORHOOD TOMORROW EVENING. WITH "HIGH" TEMPERATURES AROUND 70F
COOLEST HIGH RECORDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.

THU-FRI:
VERY COOL WEATHER WITH HIGHS ~10F BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS 7-10F BELOW
NORMAL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE NEIGHBORHOOD THU & THU NIGHT AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ALMOST DUE SOUTH ACROSS KS. A WARMUP BEGINS ON
FRI AS A WEAK SURFACE TROF SETTLES SE ACROSS KS THEREBY INDUCING MODEST
SW-W FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NEXT WEEKEND:
NICE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ALL AREAS AS A FAIRLY STRONG MID-UPPER RIDGE
SPREADS SLOWLY E FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.

MON-TUE:
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KS LATE MON NIGHT & TUE
AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS SLOWLY N/NE FROM THE CO/WY BORDER
TOWARD CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE DEVELOPING WESTERN PLAINS SURFACE TROFFING
WOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WARMUP WITH HIGHS ~90F MON & TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT
SOLUTION WITH CURRENT TRENDS...AND HAVE FOLLOWED THEIR SOLUTIONS
FOR THIS FORECAST. THUS THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION IS A LITTLE
LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. KSLN MAY GET SOME PRECIP EARLY
IN THE EVENT...BUT EXPECT IT TO BE MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DO THINK THAT ALL OTHER TERMINALS WILL SEE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TONIGHT...TOWARD MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE DAYTIME
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER DURING THE LATE DAY WEDNESDAY. MVFR
CRITERIA MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD COOLEST HIGH TEMPERATURES:

JULY 30TH:

WICHITA: 73 IN 1971
CHANUTE: 72 IN 1971

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  70  59  82 /  20  80  30   0
HUTCHINSON      64  71  59  82 /  20  80  20   0
NEWTON          63  70  59  82 /  20  60  20   0
ELDORADO        63  70  58  82 /  20  70  20   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  70  60  82 /  30  90  30  10
RUSSELL         63  78  62  83 /  20  50  10   0
GREAT BEND      63  74  60  82 /  20  70  10   0
SALINA          64  79  61  84 /  20  40  10   0
MCPHERSON       63  73  60  83 /  20  60  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     63  71  60  82 /  30  50  40  10
CHANUTE         63  74  60  83 /  20  50  20   0
IOLA            62  76  60  83 /  30  40  20   0
PARSONS-KPPF    62  72  60  83 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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