Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 142322
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
622 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

TONIGHT-MON:
FORECAST REMAINS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS PERIOD AND POTENTIAL FOR FAIRLY LARGE ERRORS IN
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
AROUND MIDNIGHT ALONG NORTHEAST BORDER OF FORECAST AREA IN
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. CHANCES THEN INCREASE A BIT
ON MON NEAR/NORTH OF COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS AREA. WARM
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED IN ADVANCE OF FRONT...ESPECIALLY
WHERE SOME SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT ALONG OK BORDER.

TUE-WED:
MOISTURE/WARM AIR WILL START TO SPREAD BACK NORTH THIS PERIOD.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
TUE NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON WED IN CENTRAL KS. TIMING AND
LOCATION ARE STILL A BIT NEBULOUS...WITH GFS/ECMWF CONTINUING TO
SLOSH MOISTURE/FRONT/PRECIPITATION AROUND WITH EACH RUN.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER MOST ARES ON TUE...WITH WARMUP ON WED
AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MODELS FINALLY SHOWING BETTER CONTINUITY STARTING WITH 0000 UTC
RUNS AND CONTINUING WITH 1200 UTC RUNS. WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN FORECAST ON THU WITH DRY
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRI. FRONT SAGS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ON SAT AND
SAT NIGHT...LINGERING INTO SUN EAST OF I-35. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD. MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  84  58  77 /  10  30  20  10
HUTCHINSON      65  78  57  77 /  20  30  10  10
NEWTON          65  80  56  77 /  20  30  10  10
ELDORADO        66  83  56  76 /  20  40  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   67  85  59  77 /  10  40  20  10
RUSSELL         61  69  51  75 /  20  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      63  70  52  76 /  20  30  10  10
SALINA          64  71  51  75 /  30  30  10  10
MCPHERSON       65  75  54  77 /  20  30  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  84  59  75 /  20  50  30  10
CHANUTE         65  83  57  73 /  30  50  20  10
IOLA            64  82  56  72 /  30  50  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  84  58  74 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






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