Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 141757
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
Issued by National Weather Service Topeka KS
1257 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
* Marginal risk for severe storms late this afternoon in far
  southeast Kansas dependent on whether front clears the area.

* Dry seasonably cool with temperatures near or slightly above
  climo through the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Strong to severe convection continues to feed on instability of
1500-2000 j/kg across southeast Kansas with several reports of
severe wind and marginal hailstones. The surface cold front will
continue to merge/overtake the dry-line over south central
Kansas this morning though it may slow its southeastward
progress a bit by midday with subtle ridging aloft in the wake
of the departing upper shortwave. Depending on its
movement/position at late afternoon, a risk for strong to severe
storms could linger across far southeast Kansas. If so,
marginally severe hail/wind will be the primary threats before
growing upscale as it exits the area by early evening. Much
cooler and dry weather for Friday. The Southwest conus upper
low will become cut-off as we head into the weekend with Kansas
being influenced by a stronger northern stream upper trof
evolving from the Great Lakes across the eastern conus through
early next week. This will support dry weather and temperatures
wavering near or just above and climo.

Darmofal

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

MVFR cigs have made their way into central KS and while they
may break apart at times this afternoon and evening, have these
prevailing at RSL/GBD/SLN/HUT. The stronger signal for MVFR
stratus for all sites comes overnight. This should lift to VFR
before dawn for northern terminals and eventually push south of
all sites by mid-morning Friday. Otherwise, CNU should see the
cold front pass through this afternoon with northerly winds
prevailing through the period elsewhere.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 226 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Rather muted fire weather conditions the next few days with
relatively moderate daytime humidity levels. A bit drier air and
moderate wind speeds on Sunday afternoon may allow portions of
central Kansas to approach very high fire danger for an or two
in the afternoon.

KED

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KED
AVIATION...TOP
FIRE WEATHER...KED


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