Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 011953
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
253 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...AS A WEAKENING UPPER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NEGLIGIBLE INSTABILITY AND
WEAKENING FORCING WILL KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIT FAR EASTERN KANSAS MONDAY MORNING. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES GRADUALLY GIVING WAY TO SOME SUN BY AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY AS AN ELONGATED TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INSERT POPS. HIGHS TUESDAY
WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS IN THE LOW 70S.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING
WEEK...AS MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGING APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY
PROGRESSES OVER MID-AMERICA FROM THE WEST. OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
ASSOCIATED GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A HIGH AMPLITUDE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MATERIALIZING THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A GRADUAL RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND NORTHWARD TRANSPORT
OF GULF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY...WITH VARIOUS SHORTWAVES LIKELY EMANATING FROM THIS
LONGWAVE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD RETURN
TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND ACROSS THE REGION. AS PREVIOUS
FORECAST ALLUDED TOO...QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE STUNTED
DUE TO PROXIMITY OF SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH INGREDIENTS SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW
EPISODES OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL NOT ATTEMPT TO REFINE
DETAILS THIS FAR OUT.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1113 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KANSAS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MIXING.

A WEATHER SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WILL EJECT EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS/OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WHILE SHEARING OUT AND WEAKENING. MID-LEVEL
MOISTENING/CONVERGENCE...ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAY YIELD
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH...AND WILL USE VCSH AT
HUT...ICT...CNU. OTHERWISE...MORE MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD SPREAD
SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN KANSAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
VIA NORTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    42  64  43  73 /  20  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      41  64  41  73 /  20  10  10  10
NEWTON          41  62  42  71 /  20  10  10  10
ELDORADO        43  62  42  71 /  30  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  64  42  73 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         40  64  40  72 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      39  64  40  71 /  20  10  10  10
SALINA          42  65  41  73 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       41  64  41  72 /  20  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     46  64  42  72 /  30  20   0  10
CHANUTE         45  63  42  71 /  30  20   0  10
IOLA            45  62  41  70 /  30  20   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    44  63  41  72 /  30  20   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...JMC



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