Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 052257
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
557 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS HEAVY RAINFALL PLACEMENT AND DURATION AND THE
RESULTANT PRECIPITATION TOTALS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A MODERATE TO
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ALONG/EAST OF THE I-135 CORRIDOR
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAP...SO MAY KEEP
ISOLATED CHANCES IN SOME OF THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...THE REST OF
THE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS WE AWAIT THE APPROACHING SURFACE COLD
FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS DURING
THE MORNING AND TO ALONG THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING.
WHILE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER TROF ACROSS KANSAS...THE COMBO OF DIURNAL
HEATING/STRONG INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS BY
AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO TRANSITION FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED BEFORE DARK...WITH THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR/HIGHER CAPE
ENVIRONMENT LENDING TO DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE THE
MAIN THREAT DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LENDING TO EFFICIENT
RAIN PRODUCERS WITH A PERIOD OF TRAINING CONVECTION POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR PUSHING CONVECTION FURTHER
SOUTH A BIT QUICKER INTO TUESDAY...WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH RAPID TRANSITION TO A DRY
FORECAST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE CONFINED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND/OR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME NORTHWARD MIGRATION
ACROSS THE AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO RENEW CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT AND RETURNING MOISTURE
ALSO ENCOUNTER A MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE IN THE WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL AVERAGE MUCH
BELOW SEASONAL CLIMO.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE ECMWF REMAINS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH HEIGHT RISES AND
BUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE NORTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
BY THE WEEKEND. EVEN SO...THERE IS GENERAL SUPPORT FOR A RETURN
TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LESSENING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
FOR MOST AREAS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 556 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS SOUTHERLY
BREEZES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A VERY SLIM CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPING OVER EXTREME SE KS BEFORE SUNSET...BUT
THIS CHANCE APPEARS TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE KCNU TAF.

OTHERWISE THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO CENTRAL KS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MON...REACHING KRSL AND
KSLN BY AROUND 17-18Z/MON.  CONVERGENCE AND INSTALIBITY LOOKS TO
INCREASE ALONG THIS FRONT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR MON AFTERNOON.  SO WILL MENTION A VCTS FOR BOTH KRSL/KSLN BY
AROUND 18Z AND SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW.  THE COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY LATE MON AFTERNOON.
WILL INCLUDE A VCTS FOR THE KHUT/KICT TAFS AFTER 20-21Z.

EXPECT TO SEE A WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCE FOR MON
EVENING FOR MOST TAF LOCATIONS. BUT THIS CHANCE WILL BE BEYOND THIS
TAF ISSUANCE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  89  65  76 /  10  70  90  40
HUTCHINSON      73  88  64  77 /  10  80  90  30
NEWTON          73  88  64  75 /  10  80  90  30
ELDORADO        73  89  65  75 /  10  70  90  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  91  66  76 /  10  50  90  60
RUSSELL         72  83  62  79 /  30  70  50  10
GREAT BEND      72  84  62  78 /  30  80  60  10
SALINA          74  87  63  79 /  20  80  80  10
MCPHERSON       73  87  63  77 /  10  80  80  20
COFFEYVILLE     73  90  69  77 /  10  20  80  80
CHANUTE         72  89  67  75 /  10  40  90  70
IOLA            72  89  67  74 /  10  40  90  70
PARSONS-KPPF    73  89  68  76 /  10  30  90  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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