Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251152
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
652 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS: THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING...AND ELEVATED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY
THIS MORNING...WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...HELPING TO DEEPEN A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL OCCUR
TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS...IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER...TO MIGRATE
NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA STATE LINE BY 18Z-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON. THE NAM- WRF/GFS/SREF INDICATE 55-60 DEGREE FAHRENHEIT
DEWPOINTS ADVECTING NORTH TO ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON UPSTREAM DEWPOINTS SOUTH OF
THE STALLED FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE NAM-WRF MAY BE
A BIT ROBUST WITH MUCAPES...A COMPROMISE OF THE
GFS/SREF/NAM12/RAP13 WOULD INDICATE POTENTIALLY 1200-2000 J/KG
MUCAPES ALONG/JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
50-60 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES FROM
18Z-21Z...WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH KANSAS
PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LIFT IN THE STORM TARGET AREA FROM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 18-21Z
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS...PERSISTING INTO EARLY EVENING
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER IN SOUTHEAST KS. THERE WILL BE A NARROW
WINDOW THREAT OF SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
CLOSE TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER ALTHOUGH ELEVATED MARGINAL HAILERS
COULD AFFECT AREAS AS FAR NORTH AS HIGHWAY 400. THE MAIN THREATS
APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FOR THOSE COUNTIES NEAR
THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...WITH A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO FOR A
BRIEF WINDOW AROUND MID AFTERNOON WITH BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR
THE WARM FRONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.20 TO 1.40 INCHES COULD
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

ALTHOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL PRESS SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING...POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS IN THE SOUTH. STRONG/GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
AREA-WIDE. SUBSIDENCE WILL SET IN BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE LATER
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY ALLOWING CLEARING. NOTICEABLY COOLER (BUT
MORE SEASONAL) AIR WILL INFILTRATE SOUTHWARD INTO KANSAS THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AS THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN CONUS. ONLY A MODEST CHANCE OF SPRINKLES/FLURRIES
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN
KANSAS...AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES DROP INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

A GRADUAL DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS PROGGED
TO OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH MORE OF A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE PICTURE FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. THE GFS HAS A SOUTHERN
BRANCH SHORTWAVE MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF DOES NOT
HAVE THIS DEPICTION. THEREFORE WILL KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AT 20-30% IN MAINLY THE SOUTH FOR NOW.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...BUSY TAF FORECAST THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS.
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS WILL AFFECT HUT-CNU THROUGH 14-15Z THIS
MORNING...WITH INTERMITTENT LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT SLN. BY
AROUND 17-19Z...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN AN EAST-
WEST ORIENTATION FROM ICT-HUT-CNU...AS STRONG LIFT COMMENCES ATOP
A WARM FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER...IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. COVERED THIS THREAT
WITH VCTS FOR NOW...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO INSERT
TEMPO GROUPS AS INITIATION TIME DRAWS CLOSER. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH CIGS LIKELY LOWERING TO MVFR ALL
AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING STOUT/GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SOUTHERN PLAINS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS AND HIGH
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15-30 MPH WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS.
THIS WILL DRIVE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES INTO VERY HIGH
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 35-55% RANGE...SO NOT EXPECTING A CRITICAL
DAY...BUT HIGHLY ELEVATED NONETHELESS. FIRE DANGER SHOULD LESSEN
CONSIDERABLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH COOLER AIR AND LIGHTER
WINDS.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  34  57  33 /  50  50  10  20
HUTCHINSON      67  32  57  32 /  40  30  10  20
NEWTON          66  34  54  32 /  50  40  10  20
ELDORADO        70  35  55  33 /  60  50  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   70  35  57  34 /  60  60  10  20
RUSSELL         59  29  59  30 /  30  20  10  20
GREAT BEND      62  30  59  30 /  30  20  10  20
SALINA          62  31  55  31 /  40  30  10  20
MCPHERSON       64  32  55  32 /  50  30  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  40  56  34 /  70  80  10  20
CHANUTE         71  36  54  33 /  60  70  10  30
IOLA            70  36  53  32 /  60  70  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    72  38  56  33 /  70  80  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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