Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 280454
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1154 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
TODAY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH A
STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THIS
PACIFIC MOISTURE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THIS MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCED SLOWLY EASTWARD, IT HELPED
TO PUSH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THIS SYSTEM, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
AS WINDS SHIFTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS OF 4PM, THIS COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM ROUGHLY CHANUTE
TO COFFEYVILLE AND IS PROGGED TO EXIT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MODELS SHOW INCREASING FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH
INCREASING SATURATION IN THE MID-LEVELS, HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP
SHOWED THAT SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY IN MISSOURI AND WE MAY SEE THIS SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING FURTHER SOUTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS
BEFORE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY OVERNIGHT. AS THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, MODELS ARE SHOWING AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KANSAS,
WHICH MAY PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL BOOST OF LIFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID-LEVEL SATURATION WITH THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT
ONCE AGAIN HAVE A MODEST AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS SO HAVE
KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THAT PASSING WAVE. WITH NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S
TO LOW 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A MORE NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ZONAL FLOW SETS UP THROUGH
MID WEEK AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOLER, MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WED. NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE, HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT, EXPECT ONLY SOME MID CLOUDS AND
HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER, ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS PASSING WAVE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPILLS INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH FRIDAY HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 822 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  HOWEVER, MODELS SHOW
A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
SATURDAY AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS ADVANCING TROUGH WILL PUSH AN AREA OF SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER,
SOME SCATTERED PRECIPITATION MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FRONT AS SOME
WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES MAY BE PRESENT ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AS
A RESULT, HAVE SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE SYSTEM LOOKING TO EXIT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY EARLY MORNING
CONCERN WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS COME CLOSE TO THE
KCNU TAF SITE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FINALLY
PUSHES THE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY AROUND 08Z/TUE.

COULD ALSO SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL KS...SO
WILL ADD A VCSH FOR THIS CHANCE FOR A FEW HOURS AS WELL.

EXPECT NW WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUE.

CLEARING SKIES WILL RETURN TO ALL LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ON TUE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    47  68  42  70 /  10   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      45  67  41  70 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          46  66  41  69 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        47  67  41  69 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  69  43  69 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         42  65  40  71 /  10   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      42  65  40  70 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          44  66  39  69 /  10   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       45  66  40  69 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     50  69  42  69 /  40   0   0   0
CHANUTE         49  67  41  67 /  30   0   0   0
IOLA            49  67  40  67 /  30   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    49  68  42  68 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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