Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 200503
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1203 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

A cold front will sink slowly southward for tonight into Wednesday
across Kansas, with hot temperatures continuing for locations along
and east of the frontal boundary Wednesday afternoon. A few
showers/storms will be possible for locations mainly east of the
Kansas turnpike Wednesday night as moisture transport increases,
however the better chances look to be northeast of the area.
Meanwhile upper level ridging will build over the Mississippi valley
region for Thursday/Friday, and cause a deepening upper trough to
dig in over the western states. This will create hot/dry windy
conditions for Kansas as the surface pressure gradient tightens
up.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

We should see a continuation of hot/dry windy conditions for the
upcoming weekend as the upper level trough moves very slowly
eastward across the Rockies. Long range models show the upper tough
finally moving closer to the region for early next week with good
chances of showers/storms on Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1203 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

At 05Z a fairly strong cold front is curving from extreme Ern SD,
thru extreme SC Nebraska near KEAR & NW KS to Ern CO. The front`s
SE progress will be the challenge of this forecast. All short-term
solutions predict the front will apply the brakes as it nears the
KS Turnpike ~20/21Z. Considering how massive the sfc high covering
the Ern U.S. is this makes sense. As such no longer expect the
front to reach KICT til mid Wed afternoon. Until the front passes
LLWS will continue across all areas with 48-52kts likely ~2,000ft.
All terminals should remain VFR but will need to watch for SCT-BKN
stratocu ~3,500ft at KICT & KCNU Wed morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  90  71  93 /   0  10  10  10
Hutchinson      70  87  67  93 /   0   0  10  10
Newton          71  88  70  93 /   0  10  10  10
ElDorado        72  90  72  91 /   0  10  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   72  92  73  92 /   0  10  20  10
Russell         61  84  61  94 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      62  85  61  94 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          68  87  67  95 /   0   0  10  10
McPherson       70  87  67  93 /   0   0  10  10
Coffeyville     74  92  74  91 /   0  10  20  10
Chanute         72  91  72  90 /   0  10  20  10
Iola            72  90  72  90 /   0  10  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    74  91  73  91 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...EPS



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