Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 290519
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1219 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

REGIONAL 88D`S SHOWS A PRONOUNCED MCV TRACKING OVER EXTREME SE
KS/SW MO WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA.
MEANWHILE...A MORE SYNOPTIC IMPULSE IS LIFTING OVER NORTHERN
NM/SOUTHERN CO. AT THE SURFACE...OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
PUSHED INTO THE TX PANHANDLE/SOUTHERN OK WITH RETURN FLOW ALREADY
ALLOWING FOR RECOVERY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

RAINFALL WILL COME TO AN END OVER SE KS SHORTLY AS THE MCV
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST. STORMS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO
DEVELOP OUT OVER FAR EASTERN CO/WESTERN KS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 06Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT THAT THE CONVECTION
WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT AND THAT THERE MAYBE TWO
MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION. ONE WHICH HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE AND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER MORE
WIDESPREAD AREA MAYBE OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS WHICH WILL BE CLOSER
TO THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
OBVIOUSLY WITH GROUNDS VERY SATURATED...FLOODING WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORMS OVERNIGHT.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A COLD FRONT THAT IS SET TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FASTER
WITH THIS FRONT COMPARED TO THE NAM WITH THE GFS GETTING SOME
SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF. WITH THE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS REMAINING
AND ASSOCIATED LIMITED CAPPING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD PLACE THE BEST STORM CHANCES FRI
ALONG AND SE OF THE KS TURNPIKE. BY SAT MORNING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MUCH NEEDED
DRIER AIR FINALLY PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

BY SUN AFTERNOON...WHAT IS LEFT OF THE UPPER WAVE WILL BE OVER THE
OZARK REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AS UPPER
RIDGING FINALLY SETS UP OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS THEN DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
TRACK OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND OUT INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS FOR WED NIGHT
INTO THU. WHILE SOME STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT FOR NORTH CENTRAL
KS...THE BETTER STORM CHANCES LOOK TO BE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOULD START THE WORK WEEK OFF WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS
THEY GRADUALLY CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES BY MID WEEK.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A LINE OF STORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION
OF THE STATE...THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MODEL GUIDANCE...WHILE NOT DOING OVERLY WELL WITH CURRENT-ONGOING
CONVECTION INDICATES THAT SOUTHEAST KANSAS WILL HAVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IN WHAT WILL HAPPEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS IS LOW AT BEST.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  72  55  74 /  60  20  10  10
HUTCHINSON      58  70  52  74 /  50  20   0   0
NEWTON          58  70  53  72 /  60  20  10  10
ELDORADO        60  72  54  72 /  60  20  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  73  55  74 /  60  30  10  10
RUSSELL         54  69  50  75 /  40  10   0   0
GREAT BEND      55  69  50  75 /  40  10   0   0
SALINA          57  70  52  73 /  50  10   0  10
MCPHERSON       57  70  52  73 /  50  20   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     63  74  56  73 /  70  40  20  10
CHANUTE         63  73  55  71 /  70  30  10  10
IOLA            62  73  54  71 /  70  30  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    63  73  56  72 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ052-053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051.

&&

$$


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