Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 072039
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
239 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
TODAY WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...INCREASING LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR SUBSIDENCE
WILL COMBINE WITH STEEP LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES AND CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
CAA RESULTING IN STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES. TIME/HEIGHT CROSS-SECTIONS OF WIND/MIXING LAYER HEIGHT
SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS MAY BE HIGHER ON MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AND
HEADLINES FOR FIRE WEATHER/WIND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY ACROSS THE REGION. TRENDED MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH LIMITED INSOLATION AS A STEADY
STREAM OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY DAMPEN THE DIURNAL CLIMB.

TUE-WED...NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH. DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID
WEEK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HIGHS MAY CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLOWER TO MODERATE ACROSS FAR
EASTERN KANSAS WHERE HIGHS MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW IS PROGGED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY
MILD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A COLD FRONT MAY BACK
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THE BULK OF COLDER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL BREAK DOWN THE MID/UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG NW WINDS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY MON AFTERNOON.

STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
EASTERN NEBRASKA/IA AND WILL DIVE INTO THE OZARK REGION BY MON
MORNING. VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
WAVE WILL RESULT IN STRONG NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
MON AFTERNOON WHEN WE REACH OUR FULL MIXING. WINDS AT THE TOP OF
MIXING LAYER TODAY WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH AND AROUND 50 MPH BY MON
AFTERNOON. A LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE 4,000-7,000 RANGE WILL SPREAD
OVER SOUTHEAST KS(KCNU) AROUND SUNRISE WITH CONFIDENCE HIGH THEY
WILL STAY ABOVE IFR LEVELS.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER CONTINUES. MAINTAINED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ON
MONDAY...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT EXTREME GFDI WILL NOT DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    28  43  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      27  42  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          27  41  24  44 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        27  41  24  46 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   28  44  25  48 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         25  38  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      25  39  24  48 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          27  40  23  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       27  41  24  45 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     30  43  25  45 /  10   0   0   0
CHANUTE         29  40  24  42 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            29  38  23  39 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    30  41  25  43 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ050-051-067>069-082-083-091>094-098.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

$$


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