Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 251746
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Daytime highs will remain below normal for Sunday and Monday with
surface high pressure remaining over the central plains. Meanwhile
current satellite water vapor imagery shows embedded upper level
short waves over the northern plains northward into
Alberta/Saskatchewan. These disturbances will drop southward across
Nebraska/Iowa with some mid-level warm air advection generating
scattered showers and isolated storms. The showers/isolated storms
look to affect mainly central/eastern Kansas for today through
Monday night. Not expecting any strong or severe weather activity
due to low instability levels and unfavorable mid-level lapse rates.
Warmer temperatures and increasing southerly winds return to Kansas
on Tuesday as surface high pressure shifts eastward. Models show
storms developing over eastern Colorado Tuesday afternoon then
shifting eastward Tuesday night and congealing into an MCS. Some of
this activity could reach central Kansas late Tuesday night aided by
low level jet and moisture transport, however the bulk of the
activity looks to affect locations mainly north of I-70.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Confidence is high that warm, humid, and windy conditions will
return for Wednesday and Thursday. Thunderstorm chances will also
be on the increase, as the upper pattern becomes more zonal with a
few more pronounced upper level short waves moving across the
central plains. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible
given the increases on wind shear aloft and instability. Otherwise
current timing from the long range models show a frontal boundary
pushing slowly southward on Friday/Saturday with thunderstorm
chances confined to mainly southern Kansas and Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Main aviation hazard: thunderstorm clusters through early this
evening.

305-310K layer isentropic upglide/moistening and weak elevated
instability, should allow batches of showers/thunderstorms over
northwest Kansas to translate southeastward across central and
southeastern Kansas this afternoon, possibly tapering off from
northwest to southeast later this evening. Expecting mid-level
cloud cover to linger much of tonight. Light/variable winds and
VFR conditions should prevail, although thunderstorms may
temporarily reduce visibilities to MVFR range at the terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    84  62  84  63 /  30  30  20  20
Hutchinson      81  61  83  62 /  50  30  20  30
Newton          81  60  81  61 /  40  30  20  30
ElDorado        83  60  81  61 /  30  30  20  30
Winfield-KWLD   85  62  84  63 /  10  20  10  20
Russell         76  59  82  61 /  70  40  30  20
Great Bend      78  60  83  61 /  60  30  30  20
Salina          78  60  82  61 /  60  40  30  20
McPherson       80  60  82  61 /  60  30  30  20
Coffeyville     86  61  83  61 /  10  20  20  30
Chanute         83  60  80  60 /  10  30  20  30
Iola            82  59  79  59 /  20  40  30  30
Parsons-KPPF    85  61  81  61 /  10  20  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...JMC



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