Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 122033
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
233 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 148 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

A deep mid-upper level trough extending from the northern Great
Lakes all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico is dominating the
eastern half of the CONUS while an impressive ridge continues to sit
over much of the west. This pattern continues to fuel a
northwesterly flow regime through the Central Plains as it forces a
surface high pressure directly south from Nebraska through western
Kansas and into Texas by this afternoon/evening. This propagation
will allow winds to briefly take on a more westerly component today
before returning to northwesterly by tomorrow morning. Highs this
afternoon are expected to be cooler than yesterday across the CWA,
though still an above average day for the month of December.

The next mid/upper level clipper system is forecast to slip across
the northeastern corner of Kansas into the Middle Mississippi Valley
on Wednesday, pushing a strong surface low ahead of it that will
impact weather in the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. However, the
center of the surface trough will stay well to the north and east
of the Plains, and with virtually no atmospheric moisture
available this system will not bring anything in the way of precip
to Kansas. However, with a tightened pressure gradient, winds are
expected to return back to the northwest in its wake on Wednesday
and will pick up a bit across the area. This will elevate fire
danger across central, south central, and southeast Kansas to the
very high category, but will likely not be enough to issue any
watches or warnings (though caution should be heeded if any
outdoor burning is planned).

The succession of clippers continues on Thursday late afternoon into
Friday as the next system moves across the state. This system may
produce some precip in our neighboring areas, but the current
thinking is that the best chances will be to our north and
northeast, so left the forecast dry. As the clipper moves off
rapidly to the east, it will break up the upper ridge that has
been dominating the mid/upper pattern in the western CONUS for
some time now and forcing it eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 148 PM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

Heading into the weekend, the forecast becomes more uncertain.
Models indicate that a deep positively tilted upper level trough
will force a surface low within our vicinity Saturday evening
into Sunday. While the the latest ECMWF indicates that this could
bring some moisture into the CWA in the form of precipitation
Saturday night into Sunday morning, the GFS and Canadian keep
precip further south. Decided to leave the forecast dry for now
through the remainder of the forecast period given the degree of
uncertainty. Overall, chances are that the quiet/dry weather
pattern will likely persist into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 12 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. A surface trough
will move across the northern plains overnight, which will shift the
winds around to the west then northwest by Wed morning.

Ketcham


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    32  60  31  46 /   0   0   0  10
Hutchinson      32  60  29  46 /   0   0   0  10
Newton          30  59  29  44 /   0   0   0  10
ElDorado        31  59  29  44 /   0   0   0  10
Winfield-KWLD   31  61  30  46 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         33  59  28  46 /   0   0   0  10
Great Bend      33  59  28  47 /   0   0   0  10
Salina          33  59  29  45 /   0   0   0  10
McPherson       30  59  28  45 /   0   0   0  10
Coffeyville     31  62  30  44 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         32  59  29  43 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            32  58  29  42 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    31  61  29  44 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAV
LONG TERM...TAV
AVIATION...Ketcham



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