Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 141711
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1211 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

CURRENTLY HAVE A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IS TRACKING QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION.
MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN SOME RETURN FLOW
COMMENCING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

WITH RETURN FLOW OVERSPREADING THE AREA TODAY...TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN SAT. THERE IS STILL
DECENT MODEL CONSISTENCY IN ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ALONG
THE 310K SURFACE. THE MAIN QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THE PRECIP MAKES IT. THE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY STILL
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST KS. WITH CAPE ABOVE 850MB IN
THE 2,000J/KG RANGE...A COUPLE STRONG STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. BY 12Z MON THE IMPULSE OVER EASTERN ALBERTA WILL BE
SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN MN WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
NORTHERN IA INTO WEST/CENTRAL KS. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MON AND WILL PROVIDE SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES. NOT THAT CONFIDENT ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE ACTIVITY WILL BE AS
THE BETTER UPPER DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. SOME OF
THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS FOR MON NIGHT.

DID GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME SMALL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FOR
TUE NIGHT AS THERE IS SOME MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH THETA-E ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER TO GENERATE
PRECIP. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY
AS COLD AS THE MOST RECENT ONE AND WILL ONLY KNOCK HIGHS DOWN FOR
TUE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH
THUR. WILL LINGER SOME SMALL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ON WED AND
WED NIGHT AS WE STAY IN AN AREA OF FAIRLY STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT WE ARE NOT
LOOKING AT ANY HEAVY RAIN. WHILE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS IN SWINGING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
PLAINS FOR FRI-SAT...THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH THIS
FEATURE. TEMPS FOR WED-FRI WILL BE BACK CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S.

LAWSON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA BUT WILL BE IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS IN ITS WAKE AND NORTH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    80  63  80  56 /  10  20  30  20
HUTCHINSON      80  63  77  55 /  10  20  30  20
NEWTON          77  63  77  54 /   0  20  30  20
ELDORADO        77  63  78  55 /  10  20  30  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   80  65  82  58 /  10  20  30  30
RUSSELL         77  59  70  51 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      80  61  71  52 /   0  20  20  10
SALINA          76  61  72  51 /   0  30  30  10
MCPHERSON       78  63  75  53 /   0  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     78  64  82  59 /  10  20  50  30
CHANUTE         76  61  79  56 /  10  30  50  20
IOLA            75  61  78  55 /  10  30  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    78  62  80  57 /  10  20  50  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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