Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 281129
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
629 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

TODAY-MON: WEAK RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NV BEGINS TO
PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER FAIR AND WARM
FALL DAY FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO EXPECTING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TODAY THAT WE HAD YESTERDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO
SAT HIGHS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES FOR MON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING TO WRN KS FOR MON
AFTERNOON...AS A DRYLINE SETS UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES.  AS THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMES OVER THE ROCKIES...THINK
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
THE STORMS SLOWLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST AS MON NIGHT PROGRESSES.
MOST OF THIS CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES
CENTRAL KS...AS IT OUTRUNS THE INSTABILITY IN WRN KS.  STILL COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER CENTRAL KS INTO TUE MORNING
AS MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES IN CENTRAL KS...SO WILL KEEP
THE SOLID CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 135 INTO TUE
MORNING.

TUE: THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO LIFT NE ACROSS NW KS FOR TUE WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE OVER WRN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS LOOK TO
REMAIN NW OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG A DRY LINE EXPECTED TO LOCATED ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUE AFTERNOON...AS CAP WEAKENS. NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD STORMS FOR TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING (MORE OF A WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM CHANCE) AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED TO JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND BETTER DYNAMICS WILL BE
WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

WED: LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR WED...AS THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK TO THE WEST
SOME.  THIS RETREAT WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE
NRN PLAINS. THIS MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE SRN
PLAINS FOR WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND
NORTHERN OK. WED AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS LIKE THE LARGER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 50-55KTS AND
UNSEASONABLY HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE
OF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND NRN OK...IN AND
NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AS THE DRYLINE BULGES. SOME OF THE GFS SEVERE
PARAMETERS SUGGEST A TORNADO CHANCE IF WINDS WERE TO BACK JUST AHEAD
OF THE DRYLINE...POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS...AS
MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH 06Z/THU.

THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE THE MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CHANCE AND
SHOWER/STORM CHANCE THAN TUE DOES.

THU: THIS MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE
AREA OVER NRN OK...WITH MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING
EAST INTO AREAS EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE FOR THU AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FOR SE KS FOR THU
AFTERNOON. COULD ALSO SEE SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/EMBEDDED
STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS TO THE NW OF MAIN SURFACE LOW...AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS KS.

MAIN SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE WELL EAST OF THE AREA FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK. SO EXPECT COOLER FALL TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...AS
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW US/ROCKIES...WITH NW FLOW OVER
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO FAIR CONDITIONS AND TEMPS CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO AROUND 0NE MILE AT TIMES. THE FOG WILL
QUICKLY LIFT BY MID-LATE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  62  86  64 /  10  10   0  10
HUTCHINSON      86  61  86  63 /  10  10  10  20
NEWTON          84  62  85  63 /  10  10   0  10
ELDORADO        86  59  85  63 /  10   0   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   85  61  86  63 /  10   0   0  10
RUSSELL         86  61  86  62 /  10  10  10  40
GREAT BEND      85  61  86  62 /  10  10  10  30
SALINA          85  61  85  64 /  10  10  10  20
MCPHERSON       84  61  85  63 /  10  10  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     84  59  84  62 /  10   0   0  10
CHANUTE         84  58  84  61 /  10   0   0  10
IOLA            83  58  84  61 /  10   0   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    84  59  84  61 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$







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