Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 090542
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1142 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE VERY STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
KANSAS OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND SEASONAL VALUES AND NORTHWEST WINDS NOT
NEARLY AS STRONG COMPARED TODAY. MEANWHILE MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY...AS PREMIUM
WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS HELP BOOST THE WARMING OF THE LOW
LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS THE
COOLER AIR SLIPS BACK INTO KANSAS...HOWEVER DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
STILL BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LONG RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
REMAINING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME...WHICH TYPICALLY KEEPS THE
AREA DRY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
LATEST TIMING OF THIS FRONT BY THE MODELS WOULD LEAD TO ONE MORE
WARM DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE COLDER AIR INVADES KANSAS BY SATURDAY.
NOT EXPECTING A MAJOR COOL DOWN BUT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SEEM LIKELY WITH THIS AIRMASS. THE COLD TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
SHORT LIVED AS THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SLIDES EASTWARD AND
ALLOWS WARMER AIR TO RETURN BACK TO KANSAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
UPPER LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO RACE ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BUT
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS DRY...WITH FAR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS POSSIBLY WITNESSING SOME PRECIPITATION IF ENOUGH
MOISTURE CAN MAKE THIS FAR NORTH IN TIME.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING. THESE
CEILINGS WILL LIKELY IMPACT HOW STRONG WINDS WILL GET THIS
AFTERNOON AS MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED UNDER BKN/OVC SKIES.
THEREFORE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW STRONG WINDS WILL GET
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS IN
CENTRAL KANSAS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS EXPECT THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO BE HIGHER AS MIXING AND A
SOMEWHAT REINFORCING PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL WORK
TOGETHER. TOWARDS THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE QUITE A BIT...EVEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION.

JMR

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH
VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS. COULD SEE A PERIOD OF VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER LEVELS AGAIN OVER THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE.
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    25  47  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      24  47  25  58 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          24  46  23  56 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        24  45  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   25  48  25  60 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELL         24  43  24  53 /   0   0   0   0
GREAT BEND      24  46  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
SALINA          23  43  23  55 /   0   0   0   0
MCPHERSON       24  45  24  56 /   0   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     25  44  23  51 /   0   0   0   0
CHANUTE         24  41  21  48 /   0   0   0   0
IOLA            23  40  20  47 /   0   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    25  42  21  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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