Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 240845
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
245 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS DAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND TIGHTEN UP THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONSIDERABLY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN STRONG SOUTH WINDS LIKELY APPROACHING OR SURPASSING WIND
ADVISORY LEVELS DURING THE DAY. THE SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO USHER
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION.

MEANWHILE...CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY
HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST. THIS UPPER WAVE
WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND CARVE OUT A WELL AMPLIFIED TROUGH AXIS COME FRIDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY...WITH A NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WE ARE STILL SEEING DIFFERENCES IN THE
GFS/ECMWF MODELS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
THE ECMWF MODEL SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THAT GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF MODEL. AS A RESULT WE WILL
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A WINTER
MIX EARLY ON CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST WED DEC 24 2014

THE CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE INCREASING A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH SOME
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE...AS ECMWF MODEL CONTINUES TO BE THE
MODEL OF CHOICE FOR GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THAT MUCH COLDER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL VISIT KANSAS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A WEATHER PATTERN
CONDUCIVE OF DISLODGING A MASSIVE CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR. THE ARCTIC
AIR LOOKS TO INVADE KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND THE
ARCTIC OCCUPATION WILL ONLY GET FURTHER ENTRENCHED FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW CLOUDS AND SNOW OVERNIGHT.

MID/UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT.
A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW HAS AFFECTED LOCATIONS ALONG AND NW
OF THE KS TURNPIKE SO FAR TONIGHT WITH THIS AREA EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALREADY STARTING TO SEE SOME
INTENSIFICATION RIGHT ALONG THE KS TURNPIKE OVER THE FLINT HILLS.
AT THIS POINT ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD MISS
MOST TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH KCNU POSSIBLY SEEING
SOME SNOW AFTER 08Z. ANY PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER CENTRAL
KS SHORTLY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
MVFR LEVELS WITH KRSL-KHUT AND KSLN GOING TO VFR CIGS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON ALL SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KCNU WILL BE AT VFR LEVELS.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    41  26  53  33 /   0   0   0   0
HUTCHINSON      41  26  53  31 /   0   0   0   0
NEWTON          38  25  52  32 /   0   0   0   0
ELDORADO        41  26  54  35 /  10   0   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   42  26  55  36 /  10   0   0   0
RUSSELL         41  24  51  26 /   0   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      41  25  52  27 /   0   0   0  10
SALINA          40  25  51  29 /   0   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       39  26  52  30 /   0   0   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     42  25  55  39 /  60   0   0   0
CHANUTE         39  25  53  39 /  60   0   0   0
IOLA            38  25  52  38 /  60   0   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    41  25  55  39 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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