Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 142331
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
531 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 307 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Tonight into Wednesday:

An upper low circulation over north-central Texas with a mid-
level deformation zone on the north flank, will shift eastward
becoming absorbed within a deepening eastern CONUS upper trough.
This will allow surface high pressure to build into the southern
Plains from the central Rockies. Mid-high level cloud cover will
decrease over south-central/southeast Kansas tonight, with
abundant sunshine expected on Wednesday. Bumped maxes up 1-3
degrees Wednesday, given the strong insolation and weak downslope
flow.

Thursday-Friday:

Mid-upper heights will rise some over the central Plains Thursday,
with lee troughing, balmy 850 mb temperatures, and a resultant
southwesterly downslope wind component. Much above normal highs are
anticipated given the above factors along with full sunshine. An
upper low will eject out of Mexico into the southern Plains
Friday, as strong upstream upper troughing digs off of the coasts
of California/Baja. Showers with this system are progged to remain
to the south of Kansas with much above normal temperatures
persisting.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

The system over the southern Plains Friday is progged to shift into
the southeastern states over the weekend, while the next upper
trough pushes into Mexico. The GFS/ECMWF models seem in agreement in
tracking the upper low from Mexico across south Texas early next
week, but differ with energy in the northern branch and the timing
of an associated weak cold front passage through Kansas. Forecast
will be a blend of the faster ECMWF and slower GFS frontal timing.
850-700 mb layer moisture flux and weak elevated instability are
progged Sunday night through Monday night across the forecast
area. This will be when the higher chances of showers and isolated
thunderstorms occurs. Will keep a chance of lingering
showers/storms in southeast Kansas Monday night into Tuesday. Much
above average temperatures are expected to continue through this
extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 530 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Expect a gradual
wind shift to the west for most locations by Wed afternoon.

Ketcham

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 307 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Lee troughing, southwest winds of 15-20 mph/gusty, and much above
normal temperatures, will support very high grassland fire danger
levels on Thursday afternoon in south-central and southeast Kansas.
Minimum RH`s of 20-30% are forecast Thursday afternoon. High fire
danger levels should persist Friday although winds are forecast to
be slightly lesser and RH`s slightly higher than Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    29  54  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      28  55  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          28  53  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        29  53  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   30  54  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         26  57  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      26  57  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          27  55  35  70 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       27  54  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     31  53  32  67 /   0   0   0   0
Chanute         29  51  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            29  51  33  66 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    30  52  32  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BDK
FIRE WEATHER...JMC



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