Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 252338

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
638 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Best chance for isolated severe storm development next 1-2 hours
should be near moist convergence axis/dryline from near Grant,
Alfalfa, Major, Dewey counties in Oklahoma northeastward to
Sumner, Sedgwick and possibly extreme southeast Harper Counties in
Kansas. Any storms that manage to form would then have a slow
eastward trajectory into the Flint Hills. Secondary area of
possible isolated severe storm development will be where dryline
intersects secondary boundary in Central KS, in vicinity of Rice,
Saline, Mcpherson, Harvey counties where convergence will be
increasing. Very strong instability (4000-5000 j/kg CAPE) and
35-40 KT deep-layer shear still very supportive of rotating
updrafts with any storms that can develop in the tornado watch


Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Water vapor imagery shows shortwave energy lifting over the
northern high plains with the main vort lobe still back over the
desert southwest. Just like yesterday, a number of surface
boundaries are floating around. Strong outflow pushed through
eastern Oklahoma and is now situated in a NW to SE fashion through
central OK. Meanwhile, another outflow boundary is situated along
or just north of I-70 which extends into a surface low over west-
central KS. The more synoptic boundary, in the form of a loose
dryline/trough, extends from west of KICT to west of Woodward OK.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Storm chances tonight are totally conditional on if storms can
develop with weak convergence on the dryline or near the dryline-
outflow interface late this afternoon. Confidence is high that we
will be uncapped after 3pm east of this feature with the only
question if there will be enough convergence to initiateanything.
The short range models remain consistent developing activity near
or south of KICT. With extremely unstable airmass, anything that
develops will quickly become severe with golf ball hail and
downburst winds possible. If storms develop, can`t also rule out a
tornado if they can stay isolated. Looks like the best mid level
warm advection will shift over northeast KS tonight which is where
best elevated storm chances will be.

Confidence in severe storms is higher for Thu as the main vort
lobe approaches the high Plains. This will allow a surface low to
deepen over far eastern CO into west-central KS. A dryline will
then sharpen west of our forecast area, generally west of Highway
183. There will also be a pronounced warm front near the KS-
Nebraska line with the NAM further south with the feature compared
to the GFS. Just like Tue, storms should develop along the dryline
or dryline warm front intersection after 3 pm and migrate east
into the evening hours. All severe weather modes will be possible
including tornadoes. Feel the best tornado chances will be prior
to 10pm west of I-135, before the storms congeal into an MCS.
With grounds extremely saturated, flooding will be likely with any
of the more intense storms.

By 12z Fri, the main upper wave will be over west-central KS with
strong upper diffluence over most of the forecast area. Low level
moisture will remain high as the Pacific front surges east during
the day Fri. At least sct storms will be likely Fri afternoon
evening given the strong upper dynamics. Mid and upper winds
backing may limit higher end severe along with an overnight
outflow pushing rich moisture south. Nevertheless, severe storms
will still be possible Fri.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

By 12z Sat, shortwave will be lifting across far northeast
KS/eastern Nebraska which will take the better storm chances east
of the forecast area for Sat. Sat night could be interesting as
the good juice starts to roll back northeast in the 850-700mb
layer with decent isentropic lift setting up. Would not be shocked
to see some elevated convection develop after 06z Sun. We then get
into a weak sw upper flow pattern for the remainder of these
extended periods. However, there is some decent model agreement
now in lifting a weak upper impulse out of the desert SW and into
the southern/central Plains for Mon into Mon evening. So that does
lead to some confidence during this time frame. Also looks like
some additional energy to lift out Wed into Wed evening. While
instability will be high during this time frame, mid and upper
winds will not be particularly strong, so starting to think
flooding maybe a bigger threat that severe storms.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Main Aviation Concerns: Thunderstorm potential and MVFR/IFR
stratus potential.

Very isolated severe storms are possible through mid-evening in
Central/South-Central Kansas. Will maintain a VCTS mention through
02Z at SLN, HUT, and ICT terminals based on latest boundary
placements/convergence. Stratus should develop late tonight and
persist into Thursday morning over much of Central/Eastern Kansas
with a very moist boundary layer, and a warm front near I-70.

Southerly flow will increase and become gusty Thursday ahead of
the next storm system, allowing the stratus to gradually lift and
mix out by midday. Scattered severe storms are expected to develop
near the dryline from Central KS southward mid-late afternoon.


Wichita-KICT    69  85  66  78 /  30  20  60  50
Hutchinson      67  85  64  79 /  20  30  50  40
Newton          69  84  65  78 /  30  30  60  50
ElDorado        69  83  66  78 /  30  30  60  50
Winfield-KWLD   70  85  66  79 /  30  30  50  50
Russell         63  85  61  80 /  20  40  60  40
Great Bend      63  86  61  80 /  20  50  60  30
Salina          67  84  64  78 /  30  30  60  50
McPherson       67  84  64  78 /  20  30  60  50
Coffeyville     70  84  67  79 /  20  30  50  50
Chanute         70  83  67  76 /  20  30  60  50
Iola            69  83  66  76 /  20  30  60  50
Parsons-KPPF    70  83  67  78 /  20  30  60  50


.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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